X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Week 2 Performances by Shields and Severino

Billy Stonick examines whether starting pitchers (SP) Luis Severino and James Shields are real value picks or bound to be busts for 2017.

In fantasy baseball, owners can often spends weeks or months preparing for the draft. Many will pore over websites and lists and spreadsheets and forums and magazines for hours upon hours to ensure they make the right choices. But once draft day comes and goes, what’s next?

As the saying goes, you can’t win your league during the draft. The moves owners make during the season are the ones that will determine who wins. The art to winning at fantasy baseball is being able to determine who should be added to a roster and should be bypassed. In order to do that, an owner needs to be able to tell if someone is for real or not.

This weekly column will focus on some pitchers who have recently thrown their hats into the ring for consideration. These pitchers will be available in many leagues, and we’ll dig a little deeper to determine whether you should be picking these guys up or leaving them be.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Starting Pitching Jury Is Out

James Shields, Chicago White Sox

2016 Stats: 181.2 IP, 5.85 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 135 K (6.69 K/9), 82 BB (4.06 BB/9)
April 16, 2017 at Minnesota: 6.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5 K (7.50 K/9), 3 BB (4.50 BB/9)

It's the resurgence of James Shields! Er, not so fast. Shields is a former ace whose fall from grace has been swift and total. His atrocious 2016 season followed a mixed 2015 season that featured the best strikeout rate of his career, a 13-7 record, and a horrendous 1.33 WHIP that acted as a precursor to the trouble ahead. In 2017, Shields' surface stats seem pretty solid. A 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP are drawing fantasy owners like the siren's song, but as many a sailor has learned, one should be suspicious of things that seem too good to be true.

On the 16th of April, Shields faced off against the surprisingly improved Twins. Again, on the surface, it seemed like a fine outing. The Twins had a lefty-heavy lineup, and Shields did a good job of staying outside throughout the outing, especially against the lefties. On the day, Shields only threw two pitches inside to lefties, and he only gave up one hit to a lefty on a pitch in the strike zone. That level of control is impressive and invaluable against such a lineup. It certainly helped that one of those lefties was the perennially struggling Byron Buxton, who was nice enough to strike out with the bases loaded in the 4th inning. The only extra-base hit Shields surrendered was of the rarest variety, an inside-the-park home run. Brian Dozier provided the swing, and as with most inside-the-parkers, this one came about through a fluke. The ball was well hit, but it caromed off the glove of Jacob May and the wall in such a fashion as to let Dozier keep running. Overall, it was just fine.

Underneath, there were some points of concern. While Shields did a fine job of keeping the ball away from hitters, he also went a little above and beyond and struggled to keep the ball in the zone when it mattered, only putting 40.2% of his pitches in the strike zone. Also, while he's clearly on the decline in his career, his velocity was down even more than usual on the 16th. After averaging 91.1 MPH on his fastball in his first two starts, Shields averaged just 89.2 MPH on it in this outing. As a single data point, it's not a cause for too much concern, but it's not ideal to see a velocity decrease in April. For comparison, Shields averaged 91.9 MPH on it in April 2015 and 90.1 MPH in April 2016. If owners are hoping for a repeat of 2015, this isn't a good sign.

When one expands the analysis to all of April 2017, the slightly worrying signs become flashing danger beacons. When looking at his peripherals, it becomes obvious that Shields isn't just due for a correction. He's due for the mother of all corrections. His BABIP is .150, way below average. Only 27.9% of the balls put in play against him are hit on the ground. He's walking 5.4 guys per nine innings. All of those things point to bad times ahead, but the crème de la crème is that he has stranded every single runner that has been on base against him. His LOB% is 100%. That is actually astounding.

 

Verdict

James Shields' success is absolutely not for real. Through some of the luckiest breaks imaginable, Shields has strung three pretty good starts together and lured owners in, but his 1.62 ERA is a mirage. His FIP is 5.15, and it is much more indicative of the type of pitcher Shields should be expected to be moving forward. Running him out there, even in a streaming situation, is a death-defying move.

 

Luis Severino, New York Yankees

2016 Stats: 71.0 IP, 5.83 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 66 K (8.37 K/9), 25 BB (3.17 BB/9)
April 13, 2017 vs. Tampa: 7.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 11 K (14.14 K/9), 1 BB (1.29 BB/9)

Luis Severino is another post-hype sleeper, but he's only 23 years-old. Severino sparkled in 2015 in Triple-A as a 21 year-old, so he got his first taste of major league action that year as well. He looked excellent as he posted a 2.89 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He had a strong strikeout rate, but he mostly lived off an elite ground-ball rate of 50.3%, a number that would have put him in the top-20 in the league if he had pitched enough innings. 2016 was expected to be his coming-out party, but instead, he flopped. His ERA skyrocketed to 5.83, his WHIP ballooned to 1.45, and it was mostly due to hitters teeing off on his fastball. The pitch went from being worth 1.2 runs above average in 62.1 innings in 2015 to being worth -7.0 runs above average in 71.0 innings in 2016. His slider and change-up showed small growth, but with a fastball that easy to hit, he wasn't going to see much success unless something else came along in a big way. So far in 2017, something has, and he showcased it against the Rays.

When facing Tampa on the 13th, Severino's game-plan was almost identical to the one he used for the majority of last season. In 2016, 58.0% of his pitches were fastballs, 34.2% were sliders, and 7.8% were change-ups. Against the Rays in this start, 57.7% were fastballs, 31.7% were sliders, and 10.6% were change-ups. However, the key wasn't how often he threw the pitches, but how effective they were. And his slider was devastating. While Severino only got a swinging strike 10.6% of the time in this start overall, 18.2% of the time that he threw his slider, it drew a whiff. His fastball still hasn't been playing well as it's already at -2.8 runs above average after just two outings, but his slider is picking up the slack by sitting at 2.9 runs above average in 2017. In fact, six of his strikeouts against Tampa came from sliders that were buried low and outside against right-handed hitters. Severino's slider has become a true out pitch.

 

Verdict

Luis Severino is for real, but he comes with caveats. He pitches in the AL East, he's prone to giving up homers, he pitches in one of the most homer-friendly stadiums in the league, and he's completely dependent on one pitch, his slider. There's no real cure for the first three issues, and the fourth one can make for a lot of problems from outing to outing. If his slider's on, he can be absolutely dominant, but that can be a huge if. There will be days where he gets a tight strike zone and has to put it in a more hittable location, there will be days where it's just not working, and there are hitters who can simply hit sliders well. Short relievers can get away with depending on a combination of a mediocre fastball and killer slider because they don't have to see guys multiple times, but it remains to be seen if Severino's can be good enough to get him through lineups regularly. However, even with all those caveats, Severino's improvement is undeniable. He should be owned in most leagues, but his owners should prepare for some growing pains.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF