Since 2002, only 18 rookie quarterbacks have started week 1 of the season for their team, and five of them came in 2012. On average, a rookie QB that starts week one finishes the season with just over 3,100 yards passing and 16 TDs, numbers that do not make them very valuable in fantasy football.

In 2012, the world saw the young arms of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden and Russell Wilson all seeing significant playing time. Some of them were even fantasy relevant that season. This year, there are only two rookie quarterbacks that will see major playing time and who knows if they will finish the season relevant.

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Projecting the Rookie QBs

TB QB Jameis Winston

Individually, Winston has the ability and potential to develop into a strong-arm quarterback. In two years as Florida State’s starter, Winston threw for 7,964 yards and 65 TDs to only 28 interceptions, 18 of which came last season. He also scored seven rushing TDs.

Winston goes into the 2015 NFL Season in a good situation. He has a running back in Doug Martin that has already proven he could handle the workhorse load (see 2012), but has struggled in the past two seasons. On the outside, he has Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, both of which were able to top 1,000 yards receiving last season with Josh McCown and Mike Glennon at QB. Additionally, he also has second-year tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins working the middle of the field.

The situation around Winston looks promising, but there are still question marks surrounding the number-one overall pick in the 2015 Draft. He has tendencies to force the ball into coverage, something shown a lot in his last season in Tallahassee. And, while he did have seven TDs on the ground in two seasons, there have been questions about his mobility. This is a question that will be answered right away due to Tampa Bay’s questionable offensive line.

Currently, FantasyPros ranks Winston has the 23rd-best fantasy quarterback. This puts him ahead of Oakland’s second-year signal caller Derek Carr and St Louis’ Nick Foles, both of which have shown potential. But to rank the rookie Winston ahead of such promising veterans is baffling.

This is not to say that Winston will not have a productive rookie season. But with the exception of the 2012 draft class, when was the last time a rookie quarterback showed relevance in fantasy football right away? It has been a few seasons since a promising young QB has finished the season as a QB1, or even a QB2.

PROJECTION: 3,500 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 15 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs

If these numbers hold true, Winston would become just the fourth rookie since 2002 to throw for more than 3,500 yards, joining a group that contains Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Sam Bradford. Also, 22 passing TDs would have him only behind Luck and Russell Wilson for rookie QBs in the same time frame. Expectations are high for Winston, but it will be hard to see him join some of these groups.

QB TEN Marcus Mariota

Mariota is another interesting rookie going into this season. His decision making ability in college was outstanding. He finished his three years at Oregon throwing for more than 10,000 yards and 105 TDs. He only threw 14 interceptions. He added 2,237 yards and 29 TDs on the ground. Some will argue that he is a system QB, something we are seeing a lot of these days in college. A stellar career in college does not always translate to the NFL.

Let’s take a look at his situation in Tennessee. His offensive line is probably about equal to what Winston has to work with in Tampa Bay. Mariota’s weapons though are a few notches below. Titan WRs Kendall Wright, Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas have all had productive seasons, but last year was not one of those seasons. Rookie wide-out Dorial Green-Beckham has many question marks surrounding him given that he sat out last season before entering the draft.

Mariota will have two things to help him this season: his running ability and his tight end, Delanie Walker. His legs are going to be needed to get him out of the bad situations he may find himself in this year. But, his decision making appears strong enough to keep himself from taking too many hard hits while he stands vulnerable in the pocket. Additionally, Walker, the team’s only reliable option, will have find himself open quickly on most passing plays given the team’s inability to protect their QBs. Expect a huge year from Walker and a strong connection between these two players.

Similar to Winston, there should be no expectations for Mariota to finish the season relevant in fantasy football, but the potential is there. Mariota has a similar skill set to what RG3 brought to the NFL out of Baylor: a strong enough arm with the ability to run if needed. It is tough to say that Mariota will mimic Griffin’s rookie season, but it is certainly something to keep an eye out for.

PROJECTION: 2,900 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 10 interceptions, 450 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs

As a rookie in 2012, Griffin threw for 3,200 yards and 20 TDs, numbers that are very similar to what is projected. Mariota's passing numbers should land very close to Griffin's rookie year, if not pass them.

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