Free NFL Betting Picks - Week 16 Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (12/26/21)

December 24, 2021

Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 16 NFL games on 12/26/21. His free picks targeting a full game and first half under.

We'll start the article off on a positive note and I want to wish you all a Happy Holidays! Despite what all is going on in the world, this is supposed to be a happy time of year and after all that we have endured, we ALL deserve some peace and quiet with the ones we love. On a gambling front, well, let's just say it's supposed to be a happy time of year!

• 2021 Season: 12-22-1 (34%, -10.5u)
  • Spread: 6-5, +.3u
  • Total/Team Total:  4-10-1, -6.3u
  • Moneyline: 0-5, -4.3u
  • Props: 2-2, -.2u

I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

NFL Betting Picks - Under

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-2)

Sunday 12/26, 1 PM EST | O/U: 43.5

The Bills had their early issues with Carolina last week, but they eventually pulled away and were clearly frustrated by their two previous losses, one of which to the Patriots. Now, at 8-6, they’re holding onto a playoff spot for dear life. Now they go into Foxboro to face a vengeful Bill Belichick and company who are coming off a big loss to Indianapolis in Week 15.

Despite showing some late game fight in their loss to the Colts, New England was kind of embarrassed last week. Everyone was talking them up to be a contender, and while they still lead the AFC East, it definitely created some questions. Damien Harris (hamstring) and Rhamondre Stevenson (illness) have been limited/absent in practice all week, and there’s no question the run game has been their driving force. In their previous 7-game win streak, they averaged 156 ypg rushing, but in their loss to a Indy where they were missing Harris and couldn’t get Stevenson going so they only rushed for 88 yards.

Both defenses here are some of the best in the league, which I think is going to make this an absolute slugfest. I do believe one or both of New England’s backs will play, meaning they’ll do their best to establish the run. Give me the under in the classic AFC East rivalry.

Pick: Under 43.5 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit

NFL Betting Picks - 1st Half Total

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-1/+1)

Sunday, 12/26, 4:25 PM EST | O/U: 41.5

Somehow both of these team sit at 7-7, but that’s just how the NFL cookie has been crumbling this year. Denver’s offense has been a mess with or without Teddy Bridgewater (concussion). Obviously we hope he is going to be able to play again this season, but it’s not looking good. They’ve been fueled by Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon on the ground lately, averaging 157 ypg rushing, third highest total over the L3 games. However, that hasn’t produced in consistent scoring. If you take out the 38-10 win over Detroit in Week 14, they’ve scored 19 total points in Weeks 13 and 15.

Vegas is a mixed bag but mostly nothing worth writing home about. They’ve averaged over 230 yards passing in the L3, but over that stretch they’ve averaged 9 ppg. Only once in their L5 have they scored more than 15 points and it was the 36-33 shocking overtime win over Dallas.

Over the L3 weeks, these two teams have an average a combined first half total of 12 points. If I had to give an edge, it’s to Denver having a better run game but this game screams snooze fest and I look for the low-scoring first halves to continue in Week 16

Pick: 1st Half Under 20 (-105, BetMGM) 1 Unit

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