RADIO
A big thanks to Dan Palyo for covering for me last week's Free NFL Betting Pick's article. While life hasn't slowed down in the slightest, I was looking forward to getting back into making picks as we grind towards the playoffs. This has been an incredibly weird NFL season but let's work towards eating into those units to get back into the green!
- 2021 Season: 12-18 (40%, -6.5u)
- Spread: 6-4, +1.3u
- Total/Team Total: 4-9, -5.3u
- Moneyline: 0-3, -2.3u
- Props: 2-2, -.2u
I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 14 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Betting Picks - Under
San Francisco 49ers (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday 12/12, 4:25 PM EST | O/U: 49
The injury bug has found it's way to San Francisco, with multiple contributors on both sides of the ball banged up and missing practice with the chance of missing this week's game. One of them is running back Elijah Mitchell (concussion) who has rushed for almost 300 yards with two scores in the last three weeks. Fellow back Jeff Wilson (knee) is at risk of missing as well, so we could really see the Niners force the pass more or even feed Deebo Samuel the ball on the ground. If they go with the former option, things could get tricky. San Francisco is 1-3 this season when Jimmy Garoppolo has attempted 30 or more passes.
The Bengals come into Week 14 with a must-win mentality, sitting at 7-5 behind the Ravens in the AFC North. Joe Mixon has vaulted into a top tier running back with 12 touchdowns and 978 yards on the ground, and that has helped young quarterback Joe Burrow develop the game plan every week. While they're averaging 5.7 yards per play this season, they've been on a downward slide in that metric over the L3, gaining just 4.9 ypp, which includes two wins.
Both of these teams are in must-win territory as the season winds down, which makes me think both sides are going to do their best to try and limit mistakes and play less aggressive/keep away. The total has jumped 2.5 points since lines opened, so I'm zigging while everyone zags and targeting the under.
Pick: Under 49 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Sunday, 12/12, 1 PM EST | O/U: 43
The Ravens didn't want to go to overtime in Week 13 with the Steelers and in turn came away with a 20-19 loss. No worries for them as they're still leading the AFC North at 8-4. Despite the loss, they're 3-2 in their last five and very clearly not playing to the best of their ability. They're averaging just 19 ppg in those five games, and that's including a 34-point game against the Vikings in Week 9. Yet another negative trend is the 10 turnovers since Week 9, but yet, they still have a winning record in that stretch, meaning the only way to go is up.
The Browns get a familiar opponent in Baltimore as they just played win Week 12 before having their bye week in Week 13. So now they get a healthy unit on both sides of the ball with an extra week to prepare for a divisional matchup. Baker Mayfield is still banged up but now Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are good to go, allowing the Browns to establish their run-heavy game plan yet again. They'll have their hands full with the Ravens run defense, but there's few better than this tandem.
I'm a huge proponent of home field advantage, but I'm an even bigger proponent of the better team usually wins. Baltimore is the better team here and host a Top 5 run defense by DVOA giving them a rather formidable test to the Cleveland run game. I like for the Ravens to take the season series with their divisional foe and pull away even further in the AFC North.
Pick: Baltimore (+120, Foxbet) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Under
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Sunday, 12/12, 1 PM EST | O/U: 41.5
The Panthers are in shambles without Christian McCaffrey. Outside of his scrambling ability, Cam Newton just isn't fit for the NFL anymore and without a true running game, it's hard to project positivity from this team. The Falcons are much of the same. They do house Cordarelle Patterson who has been one of the more exciting players in the NFL since taking over in the Falcon's backfield. But outside of him, this team isn't in a position to excite anyone.
Carolina houses a solid pass defense, but Atlanta struggles stopping anyone, period. I look for both offenses to struggle out of the gate but this game screams garbage time mayhem so I'm targeting the the first half under.
Pick: First Half Under 20.5 (-110 BetMGM, 1 unit)
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