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Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 11. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.
We're officially to the playoff stretch! Hopefully if you've been following this series, it's helped you out with who to play at tight end, the worst position group in all of fantasy football. This series has touched on some of the bigger break-outs we've seen this year, including Dawson Knox who was fantastic prior to suffering a broken hand. We've also been following the rise of Dan Arnold.
Now that we have 10 weeks of data points, fantasy managers have a good idea of who these players are. At this stage, we know who the big players are. There's Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle and Darren Waller. Kyle Pitts seems to be in a tier all to himself, not quite with the elites, but better than Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson and Mike Gesicki.
As we're getting closer to the end of the season, I plan on mixing this article up a bit down the stretch run. Starting in Week 12, I'll be comparing two similarly ranked tight ends to decide who fantasy managers should be starting. I'll also be identifying my favorite streamers and tight ends fantasy managers should be worried about busting. In order to help our readers out as best we can, if you have questions about what tight end to start or who to stream in the coming weeks, please be sure to hit me up @RobFFAddict on Twitter. Shoot me a DM and I'll do my best to incorporate any and all tight end questions into next week's article. For now, one last week of taking a gander at some usage and utilization trends to take note of.
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Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints
Trautman's role continues to evolve and progress and this has been something fantasy managers have been seeing since Week 5. It's been a sizable shift in almost every facet of the game and how the Saints are using Trautman in the passing game. This is something fantasy managers need to take note of. Trautman is not a set it and forget it starter, but to be fair, very few tight ends are. However, the second-year player is now solidly on the streamer radar in plus-matchups. And it just so happens he has one in Week 11 against the Eagles. The Eagles have allowed the second-most points per game to opposing tight ends this season in half-PPR scoring at 11.3 points.
Over the past three weeks, Trautman is the most targeted receiver for the Saints with 19. During that time frame, he's the 11th-most targeted tight end in the NFL. The targets have started to come as his role has shifted. In the first four weeks of the season, he ran a total of 22 routes from the slot or out wide position, an average of 5.5 such routes per game. Since that time, he has run at least 15 such routes each game. Which is to say his wide receiver routes have tripled since the start of the season.
Trautman is a player that has a lot more value in PPR because he lacks touchdown upside with Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Needless to say, the Saints offense is not built to score a ton of points. Their game plan is to play good defense and not turn the ball over, so it's hard to bank on a touchdown from Trautman. His air yards per game and average depth of target also leaves a lot to be desired and illustrate a capped ceiling for Trautman.
Over the past three weeks, he is averaging just 32 air yards per game, which is tied for 18th among tight ends. His 5.1 yard depth of target is also ranked 18th among tight ends with at least four targets during that time frame. What this means is it's unlikely Trautman is going to rack up a lot of yardage, but he's receiving a solid target share. Siemian seems to have locked onto Trautman as one of his favorite targets in New Orleans. While he may not have the upside of other tight ends, he's building up to being able to provide a decent floor. This week especially, Trautman can be considered a worthwhile streamer in one of the best matchups for tight ends.
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams' passing game is currently undergoing a major shift in personnel and it'll be interesting to see what happens with Higbee's role as a result. We've all heard about the news regarding Robert Woods' torn ACL and the subsequent Odell Beckham Jr. signing, but what does that exactly mean for Higbee and his rest of the season value?
There's a lot of debate about what kind of football player Beckham is anymore and after all of his injuries and lackluster play, it's a fair question. While I don't necessarily care to debate who Beckham is anymore, most should agree Robert Woods was better for the Rams' offense than OBJ, at least for 2021. What I mean by that is Woods knows the system and he's a very good receiver in his own right. Woods was pacing at 131 targets, 85 receptions, 1,054 yards and 7.5 touchdowns. He was also on schedule to finish the season with 15 carries, 87 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. It's unfair and somewhat unrealistic to assume OBJ hops right in and fills the Woods' role 100%. If that's the case, it's possible Higbee's role could potentially grow, although based on Week 10, it doesn't seem like the increase would be significant or at all. Let's take a look.
While he ran more routes from the slot or out wide in Week 10 compared to his seasonal averages – 23 to 16 – that increase can likely be attributed to the Rams throwing 41 passes compared to their 35 per game average from Weeks 1–9. The Rams also found themselves trailing from the first quarter and as a result, only had nine rushing attempts.
Unfortunately for Higbee's rest of season outlook, despite the uptick in passing volume and the lack of target competition, his numbers were hardly different. OBJ only played 15 snaps and Woods didn't play at all, which means Higbee should have been the No. 2 or No. 3 option in the passing game. Fantasy managers were certainly hoping for him to take advantage of the situation. He did not.
He received five targets, which is exactly aligned with his seasonal average. He had three receptions, which is lower than his 3.8 average from Weeks 1–9. Now, it should be noted that Week 10 is obviously a one-game sample size and there should always be some latitude when looking at a small sample size, but with the lack of receiving weapons at hand and the increased volume, Higbee should've shown us something. In Higbee's defense, the 49ers are the very best defense when it comes to fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so it was a tough matchup.
He had 20 yards compared to his 36 per game seasonal average. Production can come and go, but unfortunately, the way in which Higbee was used didn't change. His average depth of target in Week 10 was just 4.2 yards, which is actually lower than his 4.9 average from Weeks 1–9. He also accumulated only 21 air yards, which was again worse than his average of 25 yards. His target share was also worse, dropping from 14.5% to 13.9%.
For fantasy managers hoping the Woods' injury might provide a boost to Higbee's fantasy season, it doesn't look like that will be the case. He'll continue to be used as he's been used, which leaves him the same touchdown dependent TE2 as he's been all season.
Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson returned in Week 10 against the Packers and Everett was peppered to the tune of eight targets. Coming into this season, Everett was a favorite among those looking for some super cheap dart-throws at tight end. It hasn't exactly worked out, but it hasn't all been his fault. The Seahawks have had to play three and a half games with Geno Smith at quarterback. That's going to hurt anyone. Well, except maybe Pete Carroll who only wants to run the ball. Any tight end getting eight targets in the starting quarterback's return under center is going to catch our attention, especially when he was a favorite sleeper this offseason.
We know the Seattle passing attack is going to be very consolidated with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett leading the way, but there is room for a No. 3 target to wiggle their way into a weekly 5–7 targets per week. That could be Everett. In Week 1 of the season, the Seahawks appeared to be working Everett into the offense as he and Will Dissly largely split the tight end responsibilities right down the middle. In Weeks 2–3, Everett took a commanding lead, playing 85 snaps to Dissly's 46. In Week 10, Everett played 46 snaps to Dissly's 31. The former Ram would then miss Weeks 4 and 5 due to Covid-19 and Wilson missed Weeks 6–10, so the best sample size we have is Weeks 2–3 and Week 10. Those are the weeks where Everett took over as the lead tight end with Wilson under center.
During that three-week sample size, Everett is third in targets for the Seahawks. Metcalf has 28, Lockett has 23 and Everett has 14. Sadly, Pete Carroll refuses to let Russell Wilson cook despite the absence of starting running back Chris Carson and one of the best receiver duos in the league. If he did, it would pay major dividends for someone like Everett.
In Week 10, he ran a route on 38 of Wilson's 40 dropbacks. Dissly only ran 18 routes. Everett also ran over 50% of his routes from a receiver position, which is always great news for a tight end. He received eight targets to Dissly's two, so it's clear Everett is the preferred receiving tight end. He turned those eight catches into 63 yards, which may not sound like a lot, but he was very impressive after the catch. His average depth of target was just 2.9 yards, which is disgustingly low, but he picked up 41 yards after the catch.
Everett is an explosive athlete and if the Seattle offense starts to make a point of getting him the ball, he could also become a tight end that becomes a viable streamer play. The usage in Week 10 was excellent, but after the game Carroll said they needed to run more. If the Seattle offense ever does open up their passing attack, Everett could become more than just a streamer.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Hunter is to 2021 what Robert Tonyan was to 2020. Last year, Tonyan's touchdown rate was 18.9%, scoring 11 touchdowns on 58 targets. Henry has now scored seven targets on just 42 targets, which isn't quite Tonyan territory, but it's close. Henry currently sits at 16.6%. For reference, Travis Kelce is at 5.7% and Mark Andrews is at 6.0%. There is something concrete fantasy managers can point to in order to describe why Henry is being so effective at scoring touchdowns. Because of it, it shouldn't be a surprise to see Henry continue to score at a higher than average rate.
Henry has just a 13.1% target share on the season. However, that balloons to 22.9% on targets inside the 20-yard line. His target share increases even higher inside the 10-yard line, going all the way up to 31.6%. When the Patriots get inside the red zone, Henry becomes Mac Jones' preferred target. This makes a lot of sense since he's a big body who is able to box out defenders and he's been extremely effective in this role. He's caught 67% of his targets inside the 10-yard line. With the tight end position being so dependent on scoring touchdowns, the lack of receiving upside with Henry is very much offset by the excellent red zone role that he plays.
It's unfortunate Henry has not been able to separate himself from receivers such as Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne because if he could, Henry could end up out-scoring T.J. Hockenson. As it stands through 10 weeks, the former Charger is just the fourth-most targeted receiver for the Patriots. His 4.2 targets per game ranks just 21st among tight ends. Luckily, his 11.4 yard per reception average ranks 14th among tight ends averaging at least three targets per game. His average air yards per game is 37, which also ranks 14th among tight ends. It should also be noted because 22.5% of his receptions are coming inside the red zone, these numbers are lowered because of his red zone usage where yardage becomes limited.
The Patriots are using Henry as a weapon down the field in between the 20 yard lines. His air yards and yards per reception are being impacted by such a large red zone role. In the four games where he did not catch a touchdown, Henry still provided fantasy managers with 6.3 points per game. That's nothing to write home about by any means, but he's not totally busting without a touchdown.
We're 10 weeks into the season so fantasy managers shouldn't expect a drastic change to any offense or player's role at this point in the season – unless they're a rookie, really – but if Henry could just carve out 5–6 targets a game compared to the four he's been at all season, it would do wonders to his fantasy upside. In any case, even though he's a touchdown or semi-bust tight end, he has one of the best red zone roles at his position. Because of that, there's no reason to think the touchdowns are going to dry up completely, even if they tamper off eventually.
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