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Welcome to the Week 9 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mis-priced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 9 Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Teddy Bridgewater, DEN at DAL | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $24
Bridgewater just saw a streak of three multi-touchdown games snapped, but he's still completing over 70.0 percent of his passes and boasts a 13:5 TD:INT on the campaign. He was able to get Jerry Jeudy back on the field last week as well, and although he's projected to be without Noah Fant (COVID-19 protocols) against the Cowboys, Bridgewater could have the promising Albert Okwuegbunam available at tight end despite his limitations this past practice week with a knee injury.
He's facing a Cowboys secondary that, despite the impressive ball-hawking skills of cornerback Trevon Diggs, has allowed 278.1 passing yards per contest. Bridgewater is also very likely looking at a busy day through the air to try and keep up with a now healthy Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are also ranked 27th in yards per play allowed (6.1) and are giving up a robust 12.0 yards per completion at home as well. Moreover, Dallas is tied with Cincinnati for the fifth-most explosive pass plays (plays of 15+ yards) given up (30), and Bridgewater already has 21 plays of at least 20 yards in seven-plus games.
Jordan Love, GB at KC | DK: $4,400, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $20
Love may well be relatively popular this week due to his very appealing salaries, the talent around him and the matchup against the suspect Chiefs defense. Kansas City is ranked 31st overall in defense DVOA, including 30th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are also allowing 13.2 yards per completion at home, along with 280.5 passing yards per game and a 68.0 percent completion rate at Arrowhead. What's more, KC is tied with the Texans for fourth-most explosive pass plays allowed (31) and has even yielded a 48-253-4 line on the ground to QBs.
Love will be making his first NFL start in enemy territory, so there's no question there's risk attached. However, he will have Davante Adams and Allen Lazard back in the fold after each missed Green Bay's Week 8 win over the Cardinals due to COVID-19 protocols, and he'll naturally be backed up by the Packers' impressive two-headed ground attack of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Given coach Matt LaFleur is likely to have no choice but to remain aggressive with his playcalling approach, Love could very well pay off his modest salaries primarily just through sheer volume.
ALSO CONSIDER: Derek Carr, LVR at NYG | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $28
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Myles Gaskin, MIA vs. HOU | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $19
The Texans opened the season looking like they'd improved against the run over last year, but they've slowly regressed as the first half of the campaign has unfolded. Houston enters the Week 9 road matchup against the Dolphins allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (148.1) while ranking 31st and 30th in rush defense DVOA and explosive runs (10+ yards) allowed, respectively, as well as yielding an NFL-high 5.2 RB yards per carry. The latter figure is partly the result of the Texan giving up the second-most second-level yards (1.6) and most open-field (1.1) yards per rush.
Gaskin has unsurprisingly struggled right along with the rest of his offensive teammates during the Dolphins' current seven-game losing streak, but he's still averaging 4.2 yards per carry despite not yet having notched a run of even 20 yards. He's also seen 40 targets through eight games, parlaying them into a 31-165-3 line through the air. Gaskin has been back to double-digit carry totals the last two games, and given this contest should be one where game script doesn't turn against the run, he could be in for a heavy workload as both rusher and pass catcher.
Darrel Williams, KC vs. GB | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $14
Williams saw backfield mate Derrick Gore steal the headlines in the first half against the Giants on Monday night, but he came back to post 110 total scrimmage yards, including an impressive 6-61 line through the air on six targets. The pass-catching production isn't anything out of the norm for Williams, who's now garnered multiple receptions in six straight contests.
It remains to be seen how the division of labor between him and Gore will shape up Sunday, but Williams remains atop the depth chart and should function as the lead back against a Packers defense that's given up its share of big plays on the ground and plenty of production through the air to RBs as well. Green Bay checks in ranked 25th in explosive run plays allowed (25 such plays) and has also surrendered a 43-276-3 line on the receiving end to running backs. Williams should be locked into 15-20 touches if game script keeps the run game involved as expected, giving him a good chance to offer a strong return on investment.
ALSO CONSIDER: James Conner, ARI at SF | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $22
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Courtland Sutton, DEN at DAL | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $18
Some of the deficiencies of the Cowboys pass defense were already highlighted in Bridgewater's entry, and in addition to the numbers cited there, it's worth noting Dallas has allowed an elevated 14.7 yards per catch to wideouts, along with eight touchdowns. Sutton is averaging an almost identical 14.5 yards per grab and has a massive aDOT of 16.7 yards, and there's synergy between where he's seen his most targets and success this season and where the Cowboys have been most vulnerable. Sutton has logged 21 of his 62 targets in the short right area of the field and produced a 19-163-1 line with them, while Dallas has given up a 74.2 percent completion rate, 585 yards and three TDs in that passing window.
Emmanuel Sanders, BUF vs. JAC | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $17
Sanders was shockingly blanked in Week 8 against the Dolphins, a development that's going to inevitably cause a hit of some degree to his rostering percentages this week. That's naturally good news for those willing to go right back to him in tournaments, as Sanders is highly unlikely to go through another catch-less performance and is drawing a premium matchup through the air. The Jaguars are allowing 278.1 passing yards per game overall, along with 11.8 yards per completion and an AFC-high 75.6 percent completion rate at home. Jacksonville has also yielded a bloated 77.0 percent catch rate to wideouts and an NFL-high 14.0 percent explosive pass play rate, with the latter figure particularly relevant when considering Sanders' career-high 17.2 yards per catch and the fact one-third of his 24 grabs have gone for 20 yards or more.
Bryan Edwards, LVR at NYG | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $13
The now released Henry Ruggs III was claiming a 26.3 percent stake in the Raiders' total air yards, and while many might assume his departure will equate to a big bump in work for Hunter Renfrow, it's actually Edwards who should be inheriting Ruggs' high-reward downfield role. Edwards is already averaging 19.2 yards per grab, which ranks as the third highest in the league for receivers with double-digit catches. The second-year wideout has gained 20 or more yards on seven of his 18 catches, and he checks in with a 15.9-yard aDOT. The opposing Giants have allowed the fourth-most catches (118) to wide receivers and nine touchdowns to the position as well, brightening Edwards' prospects at salaries that are very likely to rise significantly in coming weeks.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. HOU | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $18
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Mike Gesicki, MIA vs. HOU | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $22
Gesicki is already enjoying an expansive role in the Dolphins' air attack, averaging just under 7.0 targets per contest and posting a 40-475-2 line through the first eight games. Ten of those grabs have gone for 20 yards or more, an impressive figure for a tight end. The Penn State product should be heavily involved again Sunday with DeVante Parker (shoulder) now having joined Will Fuller (finger) on IR and Miami facing a Texans' Cover-2 defense that leaves plenty of open space in the middle of the field and has allowed a 41-488-6 line to tight ends in eight games. Houston has also surrendered a collective 68.7 percent completion rate and 10 touchdowns the three short/intermediate passing windows, areas of the field where Gesicki has produced a 33-283-2 line on 44 targets.
Tyler Conklin, MIN at BAL | DK: $3,000, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $17
Somewhat under the radar, the Ravens have been one of the worst teams in the NFL against tight ends this season. Baltimore has allowed a 46-545-6 line to the position, with both the reception and receiving yardage ranking them in the bottom 10 of the league and the touchdowns tying for most surrendered to TEs. Conklin has enjoyed an encouragingly steady role in the passing game as well, logging at least five targets in four of the last five games. Additionally, even though he's only seeing a 5.1-yard aDOT, Conklin is averaging a solid 11.0 yards per catch. The short right area of the field where Conklin has seen 14 of his 37 targets and produced a 10-127 line has also been a weakness for Baltimore's defense, which has yielded a 72.3 percent completion rate, 618 yards and four TDs in that part of the field.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jared Cook, LAC vs. PHI | DK: $3,300, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $16
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