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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 38: Santos vs. Walker on 10/02/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
We're back in Vegas this weekend and we'll stay in Sin City for a month, so you better get comfy. It's four Fight Night events in a row ahead of us before the UFC flies all the way to the United Arab Emirates on Oct. 30 for UFC 267, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. We're coming off UFC 266, so it's time to relax a bit after we got to watch two belts put on the line... and two reigning champs still holding those pieces of gold after their successful defenses this past Saturday.
Though there will be no titles in play come next Saturday, the truth is that the lineup the UFC has put together for this weekend is tight and nice. Two top-10 contenders in the LW division will headline the event--and the main card, by extension--but before we reach that point we'll have the chance to enjoy five more top-15 ranked contenders in their respective divisions spread over four different fights. The highest stakes will be those involved in the WBW bout between Aspen Ladd and Macy Chiasson as both are top-notch fighters at their weight, but it's not that Kevin Holland, Alex Oliveira, and Misha Cirkunov won't bring more fireworks to the Octagon. Get ready, because this one is packed.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 38: Santos vs. Walker on 10/02/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Johnny Walker, $7400 - vs. Thiago Santos
Not only did Jon Jones defeat Thiago Santos when they faced each other a couple of years ago for the LHW belt, but he also fostered the ultimate skid for Thiago, who has lost every fight since then and is currently carrying an 0-3 record. Ugh. Johnny, who was approaching Santos' levels of sucking, got things right by KO'ing his last foe last September, already more than a year ago, in just 2:43 minutes of fighting time. He had lost two before that win.
Santos is a more than proved fighter, contender, and once a title candidate getting Jones to a full 25-minute fight which ended in a decision in his 19th fight in the UFC--he's now at 21 and counting. Walker, on the other hand, was fantastic in his debut run with three straight Ws via KO before getting rocked himself in Nov. 2019. He bounced back with a 1-1 in 2020, sure, but he has yet to fight for the first time in more than a year. None of these two is going to take down the other one, but this fight will undoubtedly finish with a KO. These two have won seven their last combined eight fights in such fashion... and Walker has looked marvelous with all four of those coming in the first round. I have to bet on Walker over Santos on this one, though these two fighters are clearly boom/bust, all-or-nothing plays this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kyle Daukaus, $7700 - vs. Kevin Holland
Typical boost-my-resume fight for Daukaus, this one. Daukaus has just three UFC bouts to his name and is currently down 1-2 in those three--all of them going to decision. He's a complete fighter, can both strike and take foes down, but the results aren't quite there for him yet. He'll be facing a more experienced (by a mile) fighter in Holland, who's been up and down since debuting three years ago. Holland, though, has got some respect around the promo and will surely make for a good victory if Daukaus can snatch that W.
Holland enters this fight on a two-fight losing skid before winning his prior two via KO and Sub. Holland, in case you are out of the loop, has fought a ridiculous seven times since May of 2020 while going 4-3 in that span. Not many fighters--if anyone at all--can sustain that volume of fighting, let alone keeping the wins coming: ask Holland. Daukaus, who can dominate on the ground and trust his ground talents (he's gone for 5, 7, and 7 TKs in his three fights), looks better to my eyes and could be the one actually making Holland reconsider his approach to pro-MMA, forcing him to take a bit of a rest between fights if he wants to eventually regain his mojo.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Niko Price, $8400 - vs. Alex Oliveira
After 33 combined fights, none of Oliveira nor Price have gotten close to title contention. Ugh. Oliveira has already reached the 20-fight mark, and Niko is approaching 15 UFC bouts in his career as part of the promo already. But things have definitely not worked out a lot for these two of late. Oliveira is on a two-fight losing streak and 2-5 in his past seven getting back to Dec. 2018, while Price is 2-3-1 in that same span with a 0-2-1 fighting record since the start of 2020. Not entirely in love with any of these two fools...
While Oliveira and Price have not straight discarded taking down foes--or at least attempting to do so--it is not that we can consider TDs to be their calling card. The problem is that strikes don't come in bunches from them, either, and Oliveira's results of late are rather concerning with the fighter only reaching 100+ SS attempted once in his last nine fights combined... If only because of that lack of volume, the fact that he's gotten submitted twice in his last two outings (both times in the first round), and because of Price's back-to-back-to-back 180+ SSA numbers topping at 312 (and 291) in two of his last three fights, I have to go with Niko on this one.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Krzysztof Jotko, $8600 - vs. Misha Cirkunov
Talk about a pair of opposite fighting profiles, those of these two folks. Jotko has gone to decision in all but four of his total 14 fights in the UFC to this day. He actually reached that point in his last four fights, winning three of them but losing his latest last May. Misha, on the other hand, has strung seven fights ending in a first-round KO/Sub; that's absolutely insane. Misha has alternated Ws and Ls for his last five fights, boasting an even 2-2 record since Oct. 2018. Misha spent a year and a half out of the circuit until coming back in Mar. 2021 only to get dropped by Ryan Spann with a KO in 1:11 minutes. Uh, oh.
We might see a little bit of everything on this one. Both fighters can do it on takedowns, and although the volume on that department isn't overly high, at least there is something to it. Obviously, Jotko will try to extend the fight as much as possible as he's done of late against all of his opponents with fancy results, while Misha will probably go for the early finish via Submission (he has five such victories that way with the other one happening via KO in his UFC debut). Misha has been KO'd in his four last losses lasting no more than 3:38 minutes in those matches. I think Jotko will have ample chances and time to drop Misha, he should have enough to prevent takedowns to end in an actual submission, and that's pretty much why I'd go with him.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Macy Chiasson, $7300 - vs. Aspen Ladd
This could be as fun as it can end quickly. These two have been fantastic so far in their UFC tenures, though there is a little thing going on with this battle: Ladd, she of the 4-1 record and three KOs, hasn't been inside the octagon for almost two years. Macy, on the other hand, has fought five times since Mar. 2019 going 4-1 herself in that span with two KOs and two decisions in her favor.
I am not saying a rusty Ladd--even if that's the case, which we still don't know--can't win this one, because she doesn't need more than a bunch of chances to knock foes down, but Chiasson has looked so good of late and is way fresher to consider her the favorite. Macy has gone 5-of-10 in takedowns in her last three fights while also reaching 138+ SSA in the past two, landing above 50% of her total strikes in all of those three fights since Sep. 2019. Ladd just did never need huge volume to finish her opponents, and the threat will be there. But all things considered, I'd bet on Chiasson extending her two-win streak this weekend with a victory over Ladd.
