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Analysis of seven fantasy football wide receivers drafted in the later rounds. Are these WRs undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft high-upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to take risks on a variety of different players, including prospects, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even skilled players with potential playing time concerns.
It's essential to have at least a handful of sleeper targets at each position heading into your fantasy football drafts, no matter the format. Today, we're looking at some late-round wide receivers for you to consider drafting this season.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific NFL players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2021 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 300+ of our 2021 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2021 Draft Kit.
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Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Big Mike Williams was in some pretty rarified air (no pun intended) when it came to the air yards metric last season. The opportunities were plentiful, but Williams dealt with nagging injuries and a rookie quarterback that wasn't entirely accurate on the deep ball. Per PlayerProfiler, Williams had a catchable target rate of just 65.9% in 2020, ranked 100th amongst wide receivers. At the same time, he ranked 12th in deep targets and 15th in yards per reception.
Mike Williams played 12 games fully healthy last season
Per @rotounderworld, in those 12 games, he played an average of 80% of snaps, ran an average of 35.6 routes, and saw an average of 101.7 air yards/gm
Only Ridley, Diggs, Metcalf, Tyreek, and DJ Moore had more air yards/gm
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) June 9, 2021
When he played a full complement of snaps last season, Williams was highly targeted by Herbert. In fact, he had eight games with seven or more targets. That was more than Chris Godwin and D.J. Chark, and the same number as Adam Thielen. And we've heard all off-season that he's rearing up to play the "X" receiver position in new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's scheme in 2021. That same position was played by Michael Thomas back in New Orleans when Lombardi was the offensive coordinator for the Saints.
Herbert's rocket arm mixed with Lombardi's new role for Williams could lead to a big year for Big Mike Williams. The former 2017 first-round pick will look to ball out in a contract year in hopes of getting a big payday after this season.
-- Adam Koffler
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears selected wide receiver Darnell Mooney in the fifth round of the 2020 draft, and the former Tulane standout proved to be one of the biggest steals of the draft. The sophomore receiver has an opportunity to be a great value at his ADP in fantasy drafts. Anthony Miller was traded to the Houston Texans, meaning Mooney is now locked in as Chicago’s second option in the passing game. Mooney turned 98 targets into 61 receptions for 631 yards and four touchdowns in his rookie year, largely dealing with horrible quarterback play. In a pass-heavy offense with Justin Fields inevitably taking over as the starter, Mooney could be in for a true breakout season.
In 2020, Mooney had 23 deep targets (11th most) and had 526 unrealized air yards due to Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles struggling to get him the ball when he is open. With Justin Fields' ability to throw deep passes in Chicago’s pass-heavy scheme, Mooney will look to improve in every statistical category going into 2021. Allen Robinson draws a lot of attention from opposing defenses, so Mooney can take advantage of going against weaker opposing defensive backs in one-on-one matchups. Mooney is worth a bench spot and has the potential for more in 2021.
-- Tommy Adamopoulos
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
DeVante Parker gets a bad rap. His career has been quite tumultuous with injuries and underperformances but he finally showed life in 2019 with a high-end WR2 season, averaging 15.4 PPG and finishing as the WR11 overall! Parker displayed his upside in this season and then faceplanted as WR39 last season while the QB switcharoo came game-to-game and Miami's offense failed to hit any semblance of rhythm.
Now, heading into the 2021 season, the Dolphins have added competition to the WR room that has created even more Parker skeptics. They signed former first-round pick Will Fuller via free agency and drafted Alabama dynamo Jaylen Waddle sixth-overall.
While both WRs are undoubtedly talented, Will Fuller is not only suspended for Week 1, but he has sustained a foot injury in the preseason and has hardly practiced. Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle fractured his ankle in October 2020 and may not be fully comfortable or explosive in 2021.
Parker is in his prime at age 28 with 231 targets in 30 games over the past two seasons. He has the build of a WR1 and a fantasy finish as one. While contested catches are his calling card, the presence of the speedsters Waddle and Fuller should open up the field like he's never seen.
-- Kev Mahserejian
Corey Davis, New York Jets
As soon as Corey Davis appeared to reward fantasy managers for their patience, he switched teams. Last season, Davis set career highs in receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, and catch percentage. Davis missed just two games and was the WR31 in 2020. Now, we get to see Davis try to replicate his success on one of the most unproven teams in the league, the Jets.
The fifth-year receiver steps in as the projected alpha in a receiving room full of veterans and young prospects (Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, Denzel Mims, and Elijah Moore). There are many mouths to feed in this offense, and they also have a rookie quarterback in Zach Wilson and a first-year Head Coach in Robert Saleh at the helm. Thankfully, one of fantasy's most famous sayings can be applied here: follow the money. Last offseason, despite the decreased cap space in the NFL, Davis managed to sign a relatively long-term deal for substantial money. Davis' three-year $38 million deal was the second-largest deal per year given out to receivers this offseason (behind only Kenny Golladay). The team wanted to secure Davis this offseason. Following the trend of teams surrounding their young QBs with talent, the Jets have done just that. Davis is arguably the most talented and proven receiver on this team, and he's a great depth receiver to grab late in drafts.
-- Ellis Johnson
Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills
Even with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders and with Gabriel Davis seemingly taking on a heavier role, PFF still projects Beasley to rack up the second-most PPR points in Buffalo, only behind Stefon Diggs with a 198+ FP projection. He hasn't had an ADP above 145 dating back to his debut all the way back in 2012, and he's been drafted outside of the top-200 overall in six of his nine pro seasons. That's stupid considering he has always outperformed his draft position with the exception of his rookie season (expected) and 2017 (he only featured in 57% of the Cowboys snaps, though).
Beasley has finished inside the WR3 realm in two straight seasons, finishing as WR34 (2019) and WR27 (2020), to be precise. He has scored at least 150 PPR points in three consecutive seasons, his average FPPG is up to 13.1 fantasy points in the last couple of years playing under QB Josh Allen, and he's one of the most reliable pass-catchers a quarterback can dream of having around. Beasley also led the league in contested catch rate and was an 81st-percentile player in yards per route run last season.
-- Antonio Losada
Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons
Gage is no stranger to lining up as the No. 2 WR next to Calvin Ridley, as he did so all of those times you bemoaned Julio Jones being injured. I realize Kyle Pitts is viewed as the No. 2 in ATL and he’ll certainly get his, but Gage and Matt Ryan have shown chemistry before and the Falcons cannot rely on their run game just yet. Even with a steady diet of 12 formations so that Pitts and Hayden Hurst can be on the field, Gage should run free against single coverage as Ridley and Pitts draw spotlights.
Atlanta hasn’t significantly upgraded their defense and should see negative gamescripts in many a fourth quarter once again. Gage himself has posted a catch rate over 66% in both 2019 and ‘20, proving a reliable wideout across the field. We saw Gage, Ridley, and Jones all top 110 receiving yards in a Week 1 shootout, but it would take until Week 11 to see Jones’ injuries limit his play and Gage’s subsequent rise.
He tied a season-high with 12 targets in Week 11, posting a respectable 7-58-0 line for what would be his first of five double-digit PPR performances in Atlanta’s final seven games. All told, Jones would only play in Week 12 and miss the rest of the year as Gage saw 57 targets in that seven-game stretch. His 37-407-3 line made him the No. 17 WR in PPR formats between Weeks 11-17, giving you a glimpse at his projection’s upper bound for 2021.
-- Nick Mariano
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants
Last year was Shepard's best in terms of efficiency with a 9.94 YPR mark to go with a career-high 73.3% Catch Rate while putting up a 90/66/656/3 receiving yard line to go with 49 yards and a single touchdown on the ground to put the cherry on top of a WR43 season (162.5 PPR points). Had he played the full 16-game schedule at that pace (13.5 FPPG), he would have seen his final rank go all the way up to WR23 and a WR2 finish, more than good for those in either shallow or deeper formats.
Shepard projects to score 190+ PPR points (via PFF) in 2021, which is the most by far by a WR with his ADP. In fact, for players projected to finish in the 180-200 FP clip over the season, the average ADP comes out at a rather high 108 compared to Shepard's 180+ mark.
-- Antonio Losada
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