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We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June.
Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team.
ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.
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Quarterbacks - ADP Risers
Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers
It lasted weeks, months even. But by the end of July, the reigning MVP landed in Green Bay's training camp. That closed the endless drama surrounding Rodgers and the Packers of late, but most of all that sent a wave of calmness toward fantasy GMs around the nation. And the quarterback's ADP reflects it, rising from around 100 overall to a much more expensive--and closer to A-Rod talents--75 ADP into the seventh round of most drafts these days.
Rodgers' situation prior to this development was shaky at best. Even then, and had he been moved somewhere else this offseason (most likely to Denver), he would have still been valuable. Now, with another full season in Green Bay ahead of him, he's just a must-draft QB if you value the position above others and plan on drafting your starter early.
Not only is Rodgers returning to the system he knows--basically because he just built it himself throughout the past decade-and-change--but he will also be tossing the rock to (arguably) the best receiver in the NFL while keeping defenses honest thanks to the presence of RB Aaron Jones in the backfield. Nothing to lose banking on Rodgers, even less at his current ADP of QB8 while projecting to at least a QB5-overall finish with 361+ FP (per PFF projections).
Trey Lance - San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers made it clear at the end of July: there was no competition for the QB starting gig entering training camp/preseason and it is all about Jimmy Garoppolo at least for the rest of the summer. The day that came out of San Fran's staffers' mouths, Lance's ADP started rising. Now, less than a week before the moment I'm writing this, the 49ers' HC said that Lance will play at some point through the season, even if it is on just spot/situational plays.
I mean, I know there is nothing there saying that Lance will start games, take over Jimmy G at any point, or anything of the like. But let's be honest for a second. The 49ers just inked their rookie and it will make no sense to have Garoppolo out there for long if he struggles even in the slightest of ways.
Lance's ADP saw the last bump just a couple of days ago by the end of August's first week, and that mark should get even higher as we approach the start of the season--barring something very bad happening in preseason games. That being said, you shouldn't buy into this rook too much, too early. See, Lance is going to (most probably) start the year on the pine. By the time he hits the field as the starter, we might have reached Week 3 or Week 4 (probably deeper into the season) so his upside as a fantasy-relevant player will already be nil. If you can afford to stash him, cool. If you are thinking about making him your go-to guy from day one... I have bad news. Don't overpay a single bit for Lance, and if anything, just try to snatch him via WW at some point.
Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers
The 15-spot rise isn't overly great, but it's not that quarterbacks are going to move a lot at this point in the offseason barring a serious injury or something of the like. There is no real reason for Big Ben to get a bump in ADP these days so that full-round rise is a little bit mindboggling considering the Steelers are going to have a bad OL protecting the veteran QB, and that Benny himself hasn't looked overly great of late.
Roethlisberger was forced out of the 2019 season just two games into it due to injury. He dodged the health bullet last year and got to play 15 games in which he was able to finish as a high-end QB2, ranking as the 14th-best quarterback and 26th-best overall fantasy player in PPR leagues. That's not bad at all, but Roethlisberger is far from a machine and will have it tough to reach the QB1 realm--that is, assuming he can stay healthy.
In fact, PFF has Ben projected to be just the best QB3 in 12-team leagues next season with a QB25 rank that bakes in 270 FP over the full 2021 campaign. Roethlisberger will need to see rookie Najee Harris rush the rock more than a few times, which will eat from his passing attempts and hurt his upside. The ADP isn't incredibly high at below 152nd overall, but even then, Benny should only be considered a late-round flier for those that just punt on QB or prefer to stream the position weekly.
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