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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 16: Hermansson vs. Vettori on 12/5/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
This has been such a weird year that I don't know if having just three more UFC events on the schedule looks like too many, or if those three feel like too little for what is left in the 2020 calendar pages. Anyways, there is something true in that introductory sentence and that is that we only have three more nights of UFC fights before we go on hiatus until Jan. 16th (!). That's almost a full month clear of events, folks, so you better make the most of those coming during the next 14 days starting this Saturday, once more inside our beloved UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV.
The last main card featured a little bit of everything, with three bouts going the distance, the opening one ending in a knockout, and the closing ones both finishing in submissions inside the first and second rounds. This weekend we'll enjoy a fight between the no. 4 and no. 13 middleweight contenders (as if Adesanya was dropping that belt...), and also an important bout for no. 15 Women's Flyweight contender Montana De La Rosa, who at 25 years of age is trying to catch up to unstoppable Valentina Shevchenko to potentially challenge her down the road.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 16: Hermansson vs. Vettori on 12/5/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jack Hermansson, $8000 - vs. Marvin Vettori
While these two are the oldest veterans among UFC fighters, the truth is that both of them have been around since 2016 and each has fought at least eight times inside an Octagon. And it's not that they have had bad outcomes, either. Hermansson's record reads 8-3 since his debut and has lost only one of his last six fights, all since the start of 2018. Vettori is 3-1 in that same span and 5-2-1 overall.
Early in his career (if we can label 2017 and 2018 as "early") Hermansson scored himself three wins by KO, but he hasn't got one in his last four victories, switching instead to submitting foes: he's got three submission wins to one via decision. That aligns with Vettori's fighting profile, as he doesn't have a single KO but has submitted foes in his first and latest bouts.
While Vettori has the statistical edge and enters this fight on a three-win streak, I think Hermansson can get the W this weekend. He's faced way tougher competition while still falling on the right side of things more often than not (he got KO'd by Cannonier more than a year ago). Hermansson was good enough to submit Gastelum in his last fight at the 1:18 mark and it's not crazy to think Vettori might end the same.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ovince Saint Preux, $7800 - vs. Jamahal Hill
Check this out: Jamahal's first MMA fight happened in Sept. 2017. OSP's first UFC fight happened all the way back in 2013, and since that debut and the time Hill debuted as a fighter OSP logged 12 more fights, more than Hill has as a pro fighter. That's crazy. Ovince had his shot at the LHW belt back in 2016 when he fought--and obviously lost to--Jon Jones in UFC 197. That loss marked a career-flip for OSP: he was 7-2 before that fight, and he's 7-6 since then and 3-4 since 2018.
Jamahal only has eight pro-fights in his resume, but he's 8-0 so far (he's actually 7-0 if we consider his lone UFC fight ended in a win by KO but was later scored as a No-Contest). Even with that last-fight question in the air, and up to your own judging, the truth is that Hill got himself a monster-KO win against Klidson Abreu in his UFC debut, scoring 117 DKFP on that night seven months ago back in May.
As good as that might have been for a debut, knocking his opponent in less than two minutes, OSP is a way too good veteran to just dismiss here. Don't get me wrong, Jamahal carries some good upside with him for this one, and OSP is the actual dog, but I still think OSP can keep up and build a back-to-back winning streak on top of his last W in September.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Taila Santos, $8900 - vs. Montana De La Rosa
Santos did fight for the UFC for the first time less than two years ago in February of 2019, and she did so by losing a decision to Mara Romero Borrella. Almost one year to the date that bout happened, Santos' foe this weekend went on to defeat Mara in what was then Montana's third UFC-fight. Not that this little fun fact goes for anything, but it's still interesting.
Santos has been kicking has for a long time outside of the UFC. She had her first pro-fight in 2013 and is currently 16-1 overall, her lone loss that one in her UFC debut. Other than that blip, her fight log looks impeccable. Montana has been more of an up-and-down fighter, alternating wins and losses for most of her career as a pro and for the UFC promo (she's got a W-L-W-L record leading up to Saturday).
Taila is the clear favorite for a reason here, and her resume shows. Montana is the one fighter ranked here and seemingly "closer" to a title fight (she's still ways away, realistically), but Taila should jump her on the ranks by getting an easy win this weekend to close the 2020 year with a two-fight winning streak and solidifying her position in the UFC going forward.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Roman Dolidze, $8700 - vs. John Allan Arte
Sophomore fight alert! Roman and John have fought once each inside an Octagon, and although none of them has yet lost a fight in the UFC, the truth is that only Dolidze has a W in his fight log. That's because John Allan drew his lone fight back in July 2019 after the result was overturned. Allan looked great, though, attempting more than 125 SS and landing 50% of them while attempting 6 TDs and getting Mike Rodriguez to the ground four times.
Don't undervalue Dolidze, though, as he knocked his only rival this very year and just five months ago when he dropped Ibragimov to finish his debut inside the first round. Landing 19 SS is all Dolidze needed to score himself that sweet first W, and that dominance is what is most-probably leading to the difference in salaries (and actual betting odds/ML) that we're seeing entering this event.
Dolidze is the clear favorite here with a 65% winning probability compared to Allan's 40%, and virtually no fantasy players are putting Allan in their lineups for this weekend contest. You'll need to pay top-dollar to roster Roman, but he's very well worth it with a 14-DKFP edge over his foe judging by fantasy projections.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Movsar Evloev, $9300 - vs. Nate Landwehr
It doesn't get much better than this one, folks. Both men here have won at least 13 fights in their careers (Evloev is 13-0, Landwehr 14-3), and they have only known victory in the UFC: Movsar is 3-0, and Nate is 1-0 having won his lone bout within the promotion. Winners Fight, that's it, with the loser carrying his first L come Saturday night.
While Landwehr got a win in his first UFC fight and was actually impressive at it (234 SSA, 118 SSL), he didn't quite overwhelm and couldn't bring his opponent down to the mat (he scored a reverse, though). Evloev, on the other hand, has been an absolute do-it-all monster inside the Octagon. He has attempted an average of 153 SSA per fight landing 55 percent of them, and on top of that, he has tried 27 (!) takedowns in his first two fights (none in the third) bringing those two foes to the ground 9 times (34%).
The difference in fighting profiles is what has Landwehr much cheaper in DK contests this weekend than Evloev. But that is also why you should bet on Evloev beating Nate's butt this Saturday. Evloev projects to reach 85+ DKFP compared to Nate's fewer-than-50 DKFP projection. Betting platforms have the ML at -590 and +400, and I'll leave it to you to guess which line belongs to each of our two fighters.
