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We have one race left in the Round of 8. One final chance to lock up a spot in the four-driver season finale next week at Phoenix.
What's going to happen at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday? Who wins? Who gets punted into the wall?
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions: @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Xfinity 500
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Top Fantasy Values At Martinsville
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
Looking at projected value on DraftKings and potential value plays, we see:
- Whoa, that Bubba Wallace value. Wallace is a good short track driver and this is the kind of track that negates some of the disadvantages that this 43 team has. Add in that Wallace starts 32nd, which offer a ton of potential place differential points, and we have the makings of a strong race for this team.
- Another driver in a similar position to Wallace: Chris Buescher in the 17. Not quite as much upside, but a good driver starting 28th at a driver's track is always something worth monitoring.
- Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola also feel underpriced this week. Some good chances for top 10 finishes with the two of them.
- On the other end, Cole Custer and Christopher Bell both start in the top 15. Not a great amount of upside there, especially when Buescher and Ryan Newman are just below them in pricing.
- Don't think the back of the field has a lot of value in this one. Corey Lajoie starting 26th is just a tad too high for my liking. Daniel Suarez starting 29th offers some decent upside if you need someone to round out a lineup. Beyond that, I'd avoid the guys priced lower than Suarez. Maybe J.J. Yeley could have some appeal as a mega punt option after a solid run in yesterday's Xfinity race?
Martinsville Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Here are the Martinsville ratings for the top FanDuel drivers this week:
- Look, a race where Kevin Harvick is not the best driver! That's a change, and could mean Harvick actually gets under-rostered this week.
- Kyle Busch finally won his first race of the year and now comes to a track where his long term performance has been better than anyone else's. Could Busch end up winning two in a row after underperforming all year.
- Martin Truex Jr. should be considered the favorite to win. He's going to end up being slightly over-rostered, though, which is something to be aware of. Joey Logano's results here suggest he could be a nice little pivot, as could Ryan Blaney.
- Deeper in the field: Clint Bowyer has a recent rating here of 100.5 and is a great No. 2 guy to have in your lineup, while Alex Bowman has struggled. Aric Almirola has run well here -- really, Fords in general are strong at Martinsville.
- Matt Kenseth's long term rating here is 97.9. Is this finally the week that you can play Kenseth and not end up hating yourself for it?
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Other Interesting Notes!
Here are some other things I found via the Research Station that I think y'all should know:
- Erik Jones isn't great here, but he starts 19th and our DK projected has him at eight percent rostered. Might be a nice GPP play, even if his recent average finish is 22.6.
- Kurt Busch has to win this race to make the championship four. He has five consecutive top 12 finishes here.
- Martin Truex Jr. is averaging 123.6 laps led per 500 laps here recently. Joey Logano is second at 109.6.
- Truex also leads in fast laps per 500 laps in recent Martinsville races.
- How do we reconcile this: Matt Kenseth's long term percentage of laps run in the top 15 here: 73 percent. Recently: just one percent. Hmm.
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