RADIO
Fantasy is always unpredictable, especially at the very beginning of a new season. Even the best of players put up dud performances. Not all duds are created equal though. Some disastrous performances are signs of more to come. Here are Week 1's studs turned duds.
The first week of the NFL season is in the books. We weren't sure if the 2020 season would start on time. We weren't sure what the games would look or feel like. We still aren't sure if all 17 weeks will go ahead as planned and if the season will reach its normal conclusion. All we know is that Week 1 is complete.
In that Week 1, there were massive upsets. The supposed two worst teams in the sport both won. Home teams went 8-8 despite having small or no crowds allowed. On the fantasy side of things, only one quarterback finished in the top five overall scorers.
Fantasy is always unpredictable, especially at the very beginning of a new season. Even the best of players put up dud performances. Not all duds are created equal though. Some disastrous performances are signs of more to come. Here are Week 1's studs turned duds.
Saquon Barkley
Barkley was the second player off the board in most drafts, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. In Week 1, Barkley trailed pretty much everyone who played a full game. He carried the ball 15 times for an unnerving six rushing yards. That is six total yards on the ground, not a per-carry average. He added in six catches for 60 yards which helped salvage his week, particularly in PPR leagues.
The good news is obvious stuff for the number two overall pick in drafts. He was the bell cow runner for his team; he was a major asset in the passing game. Those two factors should continue all season long. The bad news is that it may not matter considering the production of the New York offensive line in front of him.
Barkley was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 11 of his 15 carries. That is an almost implausibly high number. He essentially had no chance on 73 percent of his attempts. People downgrade the value of running backs in today's NFL partially because of this, though they mean it in the opposite circumstance. Average backs can perform well behind great offensive lines. Likewise, even great backs won't succeed with no line help. The Pittsburgh defense is good. Only time will tell how good it was versus how bad New York is in the trenches.
Michael Thomas
The first receiver off the board in fantasy drafts delivered like anything but. Thomas finished Week 1 with three receptions, 17 yards, a high-ankle sprain, and a questionable tag heading into Week 2. The injury can't be blamed for his performance though. It didn't come until late in the game, after his outing was already one to forget.
Of course, like Barkley, the failure of an elite player often has a lot to do with those around him. Drew Brees was erratic and inaccurate with the football. He completed a very un-Brees-like 60 percent of his throws. Even worse, his expected completion percentage was 68.8, giving him the third-worst differential of the week. Additionally, Brees tied for the worst mark in the league in average completed air yards.
One would figure the former stat will not continue with arguably the most accurate passer in the history of the sport. The latter is another story. Even still, Thomas' health is the bigger issue than Brees' aim for Week 2.
Nick Chubb
Chubb was a top 15 pick in the average draft and was expected to be an every down, elite back. In Cleveland's first game, he was far from an every down player. Managers who drafted Chubb expected a worst-case scenario to be something like an even split in workload between he and Kareem Hunt. Apparently, that was not the worst case.
Chubb finished Week 1 with 35 snaps played, 10 carries, and one target in the passing game. Hunt, meanwhile, had 36 snaps, 13 carries, and six targets, the latter figure tying for second-most on the team. Cleveland trailed big, leading to the superior receiver, Hunt, benefiting. But Hunt also carried the ball more and was given more first-down carries.
This is certainly a situation worth monitoring. It is too early to panic, but it is not too early to adjust expectations. Chubb and Hunt seem to be in more of a timeshare than managers would have expected, even if Chubb does normally get the higher volume of that split.
Mike Evans
The Tampa wide receiver may have been the second Buccaneer receiver drafted in most leagues, but he was still a top-25 player coming into the season. While Chris Godwin was just okay in the first game, Evans was downright bad. He finished with one catch for two yards.
We suppose this poor outing had to do with Evans' hamstring strain that caused him to be a game-time decision. As is often the case, he was healthy enough to play but perhaps not healthy enough to play at his normal level. There was no way for fantasy managers to know how healthy his healthy tag really was. It is a tough break for sure. It is unreasonable to expect anyone to bench him after he's marked active for the contest.
For next week, the situation will be the same. If he's active, fantasy managers have to slot him into their lineups.
George Kittle
The situation for Kittle is the same as it is for Evans. Rather than entering Week 1 dinged, though, Kittle got hurt during the contest. Being injured is not the same as putting up a dud performance, even if the outcome is the same. If Kittle is active next week, everyone is starting him.
