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Eli Grabanski analyzes offensive play-calling tendencies of AFC South coaches and breaks down the fantasy football impact for running backs in 2020.
In fantasy football, many of us 'experts' in the field try to take as much data into account before making a conclusion on players. That includes means looking at things like game tape, the team's offensive line, or their primary play-callers historical tendencies to utilize a certain position. After much research, I've developed a broad knowledge of how each team's play-caller historically has utilized their running backs.
Today we will look at the AFC South. This division has three offensive-minded head coaches in Bill O'Brien, Frank Reich, and Doug Marrone, but interestingly enough only Colts head coach Frank Reich will be the primary play-caller for his team. Reich will be assisted by offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni. The Houston Texans will give offensive coordinator Tim Kelly an opportunity to call plays, and Bill O'Brien will step in as needed.
In Jacksonville, the Jaguars fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo after just one season and hired Jay Gruden to direct the offense. Head coach Doug Marrone will also leave his input when he can, and could take over play-calling if anything happens to Gruden. The Tennessee Titans are the only team with the defensive-minded head coach in Mike Vrabel, so the team will once again leave play-calling duties in the hands of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
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Indianapolis Colts
Primary play-caller: Frank Reich
Frank Reich has been a great coach for the Indianapolis Colts. They had a winning record in the 2018-19 season largely on the back of the offense led by Andrew Luck. Last year Reiche and his offense had to face adversity when his star quarterback, Andrew Luck, retired abruptly last offseason and Jacoby Brissett was left in charge. The Colts ended up being a solid but unspectacular team last year, and are hoping that free-agent acquisition Philip Rivers and rookie running back Jonathan Taylor can help restore the offense to its former glory for the 2020-2021 season.
For today, we are going to dive into Frank Reich's offensive history a bit and look at how he may impact his running backs production this year. We'll start by looking at how his running backs traditionally produce on the ground and then dive into how they produce through the air.
Hmmmmmm...so on the ground Reich on average gives his running back room more carries (23.47 carries per game) than the average play-caller (22.46 carries per game), but fewer carries to his RB1 (11.60 carries per game) than the average play-caller (13.91 carries per game). We have seen Reich trend towards utilizing his RB1 in recent years more, with the Colts giving Marlon Mack 61.9% of the carries last year.
Through the air, on average Frank Reich gives his running backs more opportunities (7.16 targets per game) in the pass game than the average coach (6.55 targets per game). But something that is concerning is his 2015 season. In 2015, Reich's running backs were targeted in the passing game 171 times. This is a clear outlier, with his running backs receiving less than 126 targets every other season he's been in the league. If you take out that 2015 season with the Chargers, his running backs only average 6.48 targets per game. Overall, Reich seems average or very slightly above average at getting his running backs opportunities in the passing game.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Negative for RB1 in the ground game, Positive for RB2 & RB3 in the passing game, Neutral in the passing game - On the ground, Frank Reich has featured his RB1 less than the average coach over the course of a full NFL season. He also gives his running back room more carries per game than the average coach. This means is that you should be investing in the Colts running back that has a lower ADP (Marlon Mack) and is utilized on the ground to get the best bang for your buck. In the passing game, outside of 2015, Frank Reich has provided league average opportunities in the passing game. For that reason, we'll classify him as neutral in helping his running backs in the passing game.
Secondary play-caller: Nick Sirianni
Nick Sirianni has been the offensive coordinator in Indianapolis the past two seasons and has done a pretty good job considering he's had to deal with his star quarterback retiring in one of them. While Frank Reich is expected to be the primary play-caller in Indianapolis, it's a good idea to look at Nick Sirianni's history just in case he ends up calling some plays this season. So let's take a look at how Nick Sirianni historically impacts his running backs in the ground game.
Nick Sirianni in the ground game has given his running back room an average of 23.34 carries per game, which is slightly more carries than the average play-caller (22.46 carries per game). He also gives his RB1 13.81 carries per game, which is around the league-average of 13.91 carries per game.
Through the air, Nick Sirianni is once again around league average for providing opportunities for his running backs in the passing game, giving his backs 6.78 targets per game.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Neutral - Overall Nick Sirianni is pretty close to the league average in giving his running backs opportunities in the running game and the passing game. At this current time, he shouldn't be used to sway your opinion on running backs one way or the other.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Primary play-caller: Jay Gruden
Jay Gruden was fired from the Washington Football Team after 5 games in the 2019-2020 season. While he didn't manage to get another head coaching gig, he did manage to latch onto the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator job. It will be interesting to see how Jay Gruden differs his offense from John DeFilippo's last year, and how he adapts after the Jacksonville Jaguars cut running back Leonard Fournette, a former 4th overall pick in the NFL Draft. Let's take a look at how Jay Gruden has traditionally utilized his backs.
Jay Gruden gives his whole running back room slightly fewer carries than the average play-caller but slightly more carries on average to his RB1. This history of primarily featuring one running back means it's worth monitoring who wins the Jacksonville Jaguars starting running back job after Leonard Fournette was cut because they should get a decent amount of opportunities.
After all the years of Chris Thompson producing as Washington's primary pass-catching back, you would have thought that Jay Gruden features his running back room heavily in the passing game. But in reality, it's the opposite: Jay Gruden historically features his running backs less than the average play-caller in the passing game, giving them only 5.27 targets per game (league average among active offensive coaches: 6.55 targets per game).
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Neutral in the ground game, Negative in the passing game - Jay Gruden is pretty close to his peers in providing his running backs opportunities on the ground. Through the air, Jay Gruden is surprisingly below average in providing opportunities for his running backs and prefers to utilize other positions.
Secondary play-caller: Doug Marrone
Doug Marrone is going to be on the hot-seat this year after a disastrous season where the Jaguars stumbled to a 6-10 record. Considering it's likely he's on his way out of Jacksonville and given his offensive background, it's possible he tries to take back play-calling duties as a last-ditch effort to save his job. So in case that happens, here's a little look at how Doug Marrone has traditionally utilized his running backs in his time in the NFL.
On the ground, Doug Marrone is similar to Frank Reich. He gives more carries to his running back room (23.40 carries per game) than the average offensive coach (22.46 carries per game), but fewer carries to his lead back (11.62 carries) than the average coach (13.91 carries per game). This means that you will probably get better value drafting the RB2 in a Doug Marrone offense because they will be cheaper and still have plenty of opportunities to succeed.
Doug Marrone in the passing game is money. He seems to have been influenced greatly by Sean Payton's use of running backs through the air, giving his running back room 8.86 targets per game which is among the best in the league. If he has a strong influence in the offense this year, Chris Thompson should be a great late-round value in PPR formats this year.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Negative for RB1 in the ground game, Positive for RB2 & RB3 in the ground game, Positive in the passing game - Doug Marrone gives his running back room slightly more carries than the average coach, but tends to spread it out among a variety of players. If you want to have the most valuable running back in his offense, you should target his primary pass-catching back since he feeds his running backs with a ton of targets. This year that would be Chris Thompson.
Houston Texans
Primary play-caller: Tim Kelly
Tim Kelly is going to take over as the Texans primary play-caller this year so that quarterback Deshaun Watson can have more opportunities to discuss offensive strategies since Bill O'Brien has to manage the whole Houston Texans team. While he's only had one season as an offensive coordinator under his belt, let's look and see at how Tim Kelly affected his running backs last year.
So in his one season as an offensive coordinator so far, Tim Kelly has utilized his whole running back room less in the ground game than most coaches. But there is a silver lining. 15.31 of his 21.38 running back carries went to his lead back, which is more than the average coach gives their RB1. If this continues, it should bode well for David Johnson's fantasy outlook.
The passing game is where you should get concerned about Tim Kelly's young career. While it's important to remember it was only one season, giving your whole running back room only 4.94 targets per game is very disappointing considering the average offensive coach gives their running back room 6.55 targets per game.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Inconclusive - Tim Kelly's only been an offensive coordinator in one season where he didn't call plays, so it's probably not a good idea to make too many conclusions about his impact on his running backs. If we were to make conclusions, we would say that he's a positive influence for his RB1 on the ground, slightly negative influence for his RB2 & RB3 on the ground, and negative for his running backs in the passing game.
Secondary play-caller: Bill O'Brien
Bill O'Brien has spent seven seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach in the NFL. While he has handed play-calling duties to Tim Kelly this year, with Bill O'Brien's offensive background we need to be ready for him to step in and take back play-calling duties if the offense isn't humming. Here's a little look at how Bill O'Brien's play-calling has traditionally impacted his running backs production on the ground.
Bill O'Brien has provided plenty of opportunities for his running backs in the ground game, giving his running back room 24.88 carries per game which ranks among the best in the NFL. Of those 24.88 carries, 14.15 of them go to his lead back which is also above league average. If you end up getting frustrated with the Texans run game, but it won't be due to lack of opportunity.
Bill O'Brien has been very disappointing at utilizing his running backs in the passing game over the course of his career, with his running back room only topping 100 targets in a season once - back in 2015. This is very scary for players rostering Duke Johnson and David Johnson to see since they are both phenomenal pass-catchers, but may have issues getting the usage they need.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Positive in the ground game, Negative in the passing game - Bill O'Brien utilizes his running backs plenty on the ground, giving his running back room and lead back more carries than the average coach. On the flip side, he's terrible at giving his running backs passing work. Keep this information in mind when looking at David Johnson or Duke Johnson in fantasy drafts.
Tennessee Titans
Primary play-caller: Arthur Smith
Arthur Smith did phenomenal as the offensive coordinator and primary play-caller for the Tennessee Titans last season, as they made the AFC championship game on the back of a strong running game. But how did he utilize his running backs exactly? Let's dive in.
Arthur Smith in the ground game gave his running back room slightly more carries than the average coach in his one season as a play-caller. But perhaps more impressively he gave his bell-cow running back, Derrick Henry, 18.94 carries per game which is significantly more than the league-average among coaches of 13.91 carries per game. It's only one season under his belt, but it's a great sign for Smith's lead running back in fantasy leagues.
In the passing game, Arthur Smith hardly gave his running backs any opportunities, giving his running back room only 3.56 targets per game which was one of the worst among NFL coaches. While this should be a different (hopefully better) in his second year as a play-caller, this is concerning for his running backs' PPR prospects.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Positive in the ground game, Negative in the passing game - While he's only called plays for one season, Arthur Smith was one of the best coaches at getting his lead back carries on the ground and one of the worst at getting his running backs targets. Keep an eye on Smith as a play-caller in the future.
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