RADIO
It's Brickyard 400 time! (Technically, it's the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Powered by Big Machine Records, but the only place I'm ever going to type that is the title of this article because titles need to accurately reflect reality and all. In the text of this piece, it's the Brickyard 400 because, well, IT'S THE BRICKYARD 400.)
Anyway, the big news this week is that seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson has coronavirus and Justin Allgaier is taking over the 48 car this week and, probably, at least next week as well. Johnson's a four-time winner here. Allgaier's best Cup Series finish at the track was 27th, but he does have a win here in Xfinity and three top fives in four starts for JR Motorsports. The problem for DFS purposes is that Allgaier is starting last but -- I believe -- will be scored from the fourth position, so there's too much downside here.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)" @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Brickyard 400
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. You can also check out our YouTube video:
Top Fantasy Values At Indianapolis
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
One of the first things I notice this week for DraftKings is that Christopher Bell is the most expensive play, but his value isn't bad at 4.48 FP/$, which is about even with what guys like Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex Jr. are projected for.
But the bigger value is with the guys who are eight, nine, and ten in the pricing:
This where a lot of the projected value is for Sunday's race. I think it makes sense to have at least one of these drivers in most of your lineups.
On the lower end of the pricing, some notable DraftKings values include Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,200, 4.93 FP/$), Chris Buescher ($6,500, 5.00 FP/$), and then a big run of cheap guys with high projections:
Newman in particular feels insanely undervalued when you factor in how well he's run here in the past. (He'll probably be super chalky for that reason, but you can always replace him with a driver with an even higher projected value like Ryan Preece or John Hunter Nemechek, though I do think Newman has a better chance than those other guys of outscoring his projection.)
As for FanDuel, I'll just say that Christopher Bell is priced a loot lower there and has a projected FP/$ of over six.
Indianapolis Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
One thing we see is that most of the top drivers run well here, with one big exception:
Yep, Truex! Per Racing Reference, here are his career results here:
I definitely would be worried about using Truex in my lineups this week.
On the other end, some notable drivers with recent driver ratings here of 80 or better who are undervalued this weekend: Bubba Wallace (92.8), Ryan Newman (82.0), and Matt Kenseth (90.8). All three could be strong value plays.
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Does Pocono Help Us Understand Indy?
One of the biggest pieces of advice I've seen going around is that Pocono helps us plan for Indianapolis because one of Pocono's three turns is based on the corners at Indy.
But is it true?
Yep, pretty much. Our correlation matrix helps us see which tracks produce similar results says that Indianapolis and Pocono have an 83.8 percent correlation. If we were looking at things the other way around, we'd see plenty of other tracks correlate to Pocono more than Indy does. But Indianapolis is a track that doesn't correlate to many tracks well, so that 83.8 percent correlation is actually the highest for Indy, with just two more tracks -- Bristol and Michigan -- producing a correlation of at least 80 percent.
Factor in how close together these races are and how there's no practice this year and I think you're safe to use last week's doubleheader as a point of reference when building lineups.
What that means: Kevin Harvick should be a strong contender. Matt DiBenedetto had an average position of 13th in the first race and eighth in the second one. Stenhouse had a driver rating of over 80 in the second race. Ryan Newman ran top 20 for most of the day in both races. And Erik Jones had the third best driver rating in the second race and ran as high as third in the first one before his day ended early.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
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The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
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Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan had a 60+ unit betting profit in 2024 NASCAR, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.
Five-time NASCAR Racing Writer of the Year finalist and fantasy industry legend Scott "The King" Engel is also in the crew, bringing you his weekly strategies and lineup picks. Set your winning DFS lineups with our award-winning team. He has been nominated once again in 2024 for this award.
