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Kyle Ringstad’s KBO DFS picks for 7/2/2020. He breaks down the KBO slate for FanDuel and DraftKings and offers his favorite pitchers, hitters, and value plays for DFS contests.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! These last few months without our usual professional sports have been rough, but we can take solace in the fact that DFS contests haven't stopped and KBO has provided us with some exciting content in what has become an unusually empty summer (sincere apologies to UFC and PGA).
My general strategy is to keep an eye on the betting lines found at Bovada and identify potential starting pitchers and hitter stacks to target from there. If you have the ability to stay up until an hour before lock, do yourself a huge favor and check out RotoWire's daily lineups to make sure you're playing guys who are actually starting. Let's get into the slate!
Reminder: the FanDuel and DraftKings slates lock at 4:30 AM (CT) on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Follow me @kringstad19 (and my fellow KBO analysts @ehatch1990DFS or @MarkStrausberg. You can also find our betting picks here).
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KBO DFS Pitchers
I hope that everyone ate the chalk on the 7/1/20 slate by playing NC's Chang-mo Koo, KBO's version of Gerrit Cole. He racked up 11 strikeouts over seven innings against the Lotte Giants as he improved to a sparkling 7-0 on the year.
This is a tricky slate for selecting a Starting Pitcher. Dan Straily and Jong-ki Park are the top arms on paper, and it's not particularly close as they're the only two pitchers with a K% north of 17.1% and respectable ERA/FIP. However, Straily is facing the dangerous NC Dinos in a hitters ballpark and Park is facing Kiwoom in a game with the highest projected run total (he also is making just his fourth start of the season - small sample size alert!). You might be intrigued by Min-woo Lee as he's facing Hanwha in a game with an 8.5-run total, but he has given up 15 earned runs in his last three starts and managed just three strikeouts while allowing three runs in his last outing against the Eagles. This has the looks of a slate where you can go low at starting pitcher and fill your lineup with powerful hitter stacks.
Tae-in Won
(SAM Starting P: $22 FanDuel, $7700 DraftKings)
Won is an underpriced pitcher who's in a good spot. Won is 4-2 over nine starts, he holds an impressive 2.96 ERA, and he leads the slate with an 84% left-on-base rate. He's not going to give you high strikeout-upside but he has shown that he's capable of notching 4-6 punch-outs in favorable matchups. SK's stadium ranks second in park factor, but the Wyverns haven't taken advantage as they rank second-to-last in runs per game scored at home and are an unimposing offense for any pitcher to face. Won is a solid bet to get the win as Samsung is favored by 1.5 runs in the lowest projected run total game (8.5 runs).
Warwick Saupold
(HAN Starting P: $23 Fanduel, $8500 DraftKings)
Let's keep it rolling with another cheap option. Saupold has an attractive combination of low ERA, FIP, BB/9 (lowest on the slate), and HR/9 (lowest on the slate). His 14.8% K% won't blow anyone away, but his slate-leading .339 BABIP suggests that his numbers should be a little better if only his luck (or the defense behind him) could improve at all. Saupold is in great form, giving up just four earned runs over his last three starts (vs. KT, NC, DOO) and notching 17 strikeouts in the process. KIA may seem like an imposing matchup, but they actually rank second-to-last in both road runs per game (3.68 runs) and road home runs per game (0.76 home runs).
Casey Kelly
(LG Starting P: $24 FanDuel, $9200 DraftKings)
Kelly has been brutal in his last three outings, allowing a combined 22 hits, 11 ER, and three homers while notching just 10 strikeouts vs. SK, DOO, and LOT. He also allowed four earned runs with just four strikeouts in his last outing vs. KT. That being said, he has a respectable 17.1% K% and his .319 BABIP (2nd-highest on the slate) suggests that he's had a run of tough luck. The KT regulars (over 100 AB's) strike out at a 17.6% clip, including Kyung-Su Park (23.7%) and Mel Rojas Jr. (21.8%). Additionally, LG's home park is ranked (tied for) last in Park Factor, meaning it's a very favorable environment for pitching. LG is favored by 1.5 runs in a low run total game (9.5 runs).
Note: Kelly is a much better value on FanDuel but can be rolled out as an option on DraftKings.
*Longshot GPP Play*
Jong-ki Park
(DOO Starting P: $21 FanDuel, $7300 DraftKings)
Park is making just his fourth start of the year, but he has been above-average in his two tough matchups against NC (two earned runs allowed with five strikeouts) and LG (zero earned runs allowed with three strikeouts). He eclipsed 82 pitches in those outings but hasn't made it past the sixth inning yet. His numbers are solid in the small sample size and Doosan is favored by 1.5 runs in the (tied for) best pitchers ballpark. However, Kiwoom is a much better hitting team on the road, and this game has the highest projected total on the slate at 11.5 runs. Limit the exposure here, but he could be worth a shot as a dirt-cheap potential winning pitcher with 3-5 punch-outs.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
Ideally, you'd like to target offenses in the highest run total games who are facing pitchers (and bullpens) that are likely to give up a crooked number. This being a slate with some attractive low-salary starting pitching options, we can target high-value hitting stacks with some degree of confidence.
Doosan Bears
Why not go right back to Doosan after their 14-run outburst last night? Kiwoom's Young-gun Cho has been absolutely awful in five starts, holding a 6.87 ERA, 7.66 FIP, 1.96 WHIP, 1.96 HR/9, 9.1% K%, 14.8% BB%, and a .307 batting average against. Doosan should jump on this guy early and often.
Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17, $6000) - Fernandez went 5/5 with a homer, two RBI, and four runs scored last night. He's always expensive, but he needs to be strongly considered as the centerpiece of a Doosan stack.
Jae-Hwan Kim ($17, $5600) - Kim leads the team with a .230 ISO and 11 home runs, though he does have an alarming 27.9% K%. Thankfully, opposing pitcher Young-gun Cho holds a minuscule (slate-low) 9.1% K% himself.
Jae-Il Oh ($15, $4100) - Oh is second on the team with a .218 ISO and his .563 SLG is the highest on the stacked Doosan squad.
Kun-Woo Park ($13, $4200) - Park had another productive night at the plate, going 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored. He ranks eighth on the team with a .145 ISO but he's second on the squad with 37 runs scored.
Joo-Hwan Choi ($13, $3300) - Choi ranks third on Doosan with a .215 ISO and second in homers with eight.
Kyoung-Min Hur ($8, $3300) - Hur had been hitting leadoff until Kun-Woo Park did last night, but Hur had a great DFS night anyway. He's back in play as an inexpensive option who will likely be hitting near the top of the order.
LG Twins
After the Doosan/Kiwoom game, the next highest run-total games are LG/KT and NC/LOT at 9.5 runs. NC is facing Dan Straily, who doesn't give up bombs and holds a high strikeout rate. We're targeting LG, since they're facing a pitcher making his second career start in Byeong-uk Jo. He has a 5.7% strikeout rate in 12 and 2/3 total innings, and he's giving up a .300 batting average against. LG has the (tied for) worst park for offensive production, but this is too tough of a lineup for this inexperienced of a pitcher.
Roberto Ramos ($17, $5400) - Ramos is the team's leader with a .309 ISO and 13 home runs. He's the player to hit the lock button on if you have any extra salary.
Hyun-Soo Kim ($15, $5300) - Kim leads the team by a long shot with 17 doubles on the season. He has also added five homers.
Eun-Sung Chae ($13, $3200) - Chae is hitting .305 with a .149 ISO on the season, and he has five homers with 29 RBI's and 29 runs scored.
Ji-Hwan Oh ($9, $3600) - Oh hits in the two-spot and is a very inexpensive way to get access to the big bats today. He has 25 runs scored and nine steals on the season.
Kang-Nam Yoo ($10, $4600) - Yoo is hitting .291 and has the third-most RB's on the team with 31. Better value on FanDuel
Other stacks/hitters to consider:
- A stack or mini-stack of NC against Lotte's Dan Straily makes some sense for leverage in GPP tournaments. Straily's ownership may be higher than it should as he's the best pitcher on the slate, but NC is certainly capable of getting to him. It's a hitters ballpark as well. Sung-Bum Na ($18, $5700), Aaron Altherr ($16, $5000), Eui-Ji Yang ($14, $5900), Min-Woo Park ($12, $4700), and Hee-Dong Kwon ($7, $2500) all deserve consideration.
- Otherwise, we have games with low run-totals. Keep an eye on the betting lines, but for now, look for value hitters on Samsung to round out your lineups. Ja-Wook Koo ($10, $4800), Sang-Su Kim ($8, $4000), and Won-Seok Lee ($8, $4000) are in play.
Good luck with your KBO DFS lineups tonight and thanks for checking out my KBO DFS picks here at RotoBaller!
