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In Week 13, we came out even again. Baltimore and that first-half under in the Arizona game came through thanks to Arizona's lack of an offense. Minnesota let us down late against Seattle and then Jacksonville forgot where their offense ran off to. So, all in all, it could have been much worse.
- Week 13 Picks: 2-2 (50%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 27-27 (50%)
I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even money lines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you every week.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS to chat about football and my picks. I am filling in this week for Steve Janik.
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Miami at NY Jets (-5.5)
O/U: 45.5
The Jets and Dolphins represent the ugliness of an AFC East rival matchup. Consider that the Jets have a 4-9 record but it is Miami who comes in as the hotter team (winning three of their last five games). Miami has even averaged 24.6 points per game in that span which is more than the Jets. Some will think with the calm conditions, that the over is the surest pick. It very well maybe but with these games, there is one safer bet.
These division rivals play it close. Furthermore, Miami has won the last four contests between the two teams. In their last meeting, Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Dolphins to three scores in the second quarter as Miami held on for a 26-18 win. It was their first win of the season. The Dolphins have played better since they first entered the win column. It is funny how that works sometimes.
However, let us all laugh at the fact that a team that got humbled by the Cincinnati Bengals of all teams is somehow a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday afternoon. I do not care if they are home. It does not matter! It is too difficult to see a New York team giving up that many points. New York is 3-3 at home ATS but is 0 for Miami the past couple seasons. The goal is to keep it simple here and that is what we will do. Take Miami and the points.
Pick: Miami +5.5
Kansas City at New England (-3)
O/U: 49
The Chiefs and Patriots are expected to score some points on Sunday evening and the fact that the over/under has slid back a little only helps matters. Maybe it is the residual effect of the flu outbreak last week. Yes, that happened and one could argue the Patriots lost a game because players forgot to wash their hands. This will not occur in Week 14 and New England will come out much more focused against a Chiefs team that has won two straight games righting the ship a bit.
These are two of the top six offenses in the entire league. Kansas City averages 29 points a game while New England averages 26.8 points per contest. The home/road splits add points here with New England and Kansas City seeing about a one-point per game bump each. That has to make bettors feel a little better. There was also some concern about rain in the forecast. That appears like it should hold on until very late in the contest. By then, it should not have the impact like it was first feared.
From a gambling perspective, Kansas City has connected on the over in three of their five road games and is one of those teams that can draw the Patriots into a high-paced contest. Travis Kelce is a matchup nightmare for New England and that should open up options for Patrick Mahomes. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady should enjoy plenty of success against Kansas City's defense that gives up over 372 yards per game. Also, the last three meetings have easily hit on the over. A fourth is likely in the cards here. Take the over and also wait to see if the Patriots number dips below -3 because that may be worth a look too.
Pick: Over 49
Washington at Green Bay (-12.5)
O/U: 41.5
This Packers team has struggled to score at times but nothing like the Washington Redskins. Washington still ranks dead last in points per game at 14.4 but they did manage 29 on the road last week against the Carolina Panthers. That may not sound like much but it is significant. As for Green Bay, they have only averaged 24.1 points per contest yet that number climbs to 27.3 points per game at home. It is not far-fetched to suggest Green Bay could drop 30 points on the Redskins on Sunday.
The first half over/under was pondered. On the other hand, this game could turn hot in the second half. Again, weather conditions are not expected to be severely adverse. It is December after all, and bad weather usually leads to sloppy play and turnovers. Aaron Rodgers has been known to fumble a few balls in his time in the cold. This year, he has thrown just two interceptions behind 20+ touchdowns.
Green Bay could start this one fast which would force Washington to pass more than they would like. That is not a bad thing given the projection being as low as it is. Green Bay is 3-3 on the over and above the projection line when it comes to covering said over. This is not a pick for the faint of heart yet it is tied for the lowest over/under on the week.
Pick: Over 41.5
NY Giants at Philadelphia (-9.5)
O/U: 46
Neither team is lighting things up. New York has lost eight straight games since being 2-2 after a month. Philadelphia is below .500 as well but yet still in the NFC East race because Dallas is 6-7 on the season. The Giants were even forced to start Eli Manning this week because Daniel Jones suffered a high-ankle sprain last week in the loss to Green Bay. New York is one of the worst road teams in football when it comes to allowing points. They do so at a clip of 30.8 points per contest. Even Philadelphia should be able to come close to that at home.
While the Eagles have done the world a few favors, New York has been a good road doormat as the over has connected in five of their six road games. New York's defense can be gouged down the middle via the pass or the run. Philadelphia should be able to move up and down the field. Also, Manning should have chances to go downfield as the Eagles defensive front seven can be attacked as well. Do us a favor, take the over, and see where that spread ends up on Sunday. If the number heads close to eight, then consider that also.
Pick: Over 46
