Week 3 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. ECR

Welcome, one and all, to the weekly piece that puts my rankings under the microscope and gives me a chance to explain myself against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) found on FantasyPros. My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the expert crowd.

I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane with every position folded in with the others. I focus on QB, RB, WR, and TE -- feel free to holler if you really want K or DEF notes.

If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s dance.

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Week 3 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

I like four quarterbacks at least four slots above the consensus: Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky. Cam gets to play at home against the Bengals -- who are getting Vontaze Burfict back -- but this dude is a goal-line back and QB rolled in one. When no one else’s matchup is screaming for the top-three then Cam’s a rather easy default.

Russ also has wheels and gets to play at home in Week 3. My hope is that Seattle learns from their embarrassing effort on MNF, though putting faith in Brian Schottenheimer is probably dumb. Bortles is one of my favorite plays, as Jacksonville should roll the Titans with the defensive advantage and win the field position war all day. I know Tennessee has historically performed well against him, but 2018 is a new year. And Trubisky simply gets to face an Arizona team whose offense is sucking the whole team down, again making for strong field positions.

I dislike Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck four or more slots than the ECR, as Rodgers’ limited mobility continues to hinder my love. Also, Washington’s defense at home is nothing to scoff at. Meanwhile, Luck has the tall task of facing an Eagles defense in Philly just two weeks after Matt Ryan was a fantasy dud in Week 1. I’ll pass on Luck here as he continues to get back to speed.

 

Week 3 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

I have to assume that folks are just waiting on Dalvin Cook’s status to give Latavius Murray the proper respect for Week 3, as his ECR of 39 is criminal compared to the RB2/3 he is (even if Cook plays a bit) in a dream matchup against Buffalo. If Cook is confirmed out then I’ll probably take Murray up to RB13 or so, making him a high-end RB2. But Javorius Allen and Austin Ekeler have both been useful plays when facing the Bills in Weeks 1 and 2, so why not Murray?

Other likes include Alfred Morris, who I think gets his share in a shootout, as well as Chris Carson and Jordan Wilkins, both of whom still look like the best RBs on their teams despite some bumps in the road. Again, I think higher of Seattle at home and that whole special teams, getting gassed business for Carson better be ironed out if Pete Carroll is a real NFL coach.

Aside from being lower on Cook, I also have Saquon Barkley down to 12 from an ECR of 6. I respect his incredible, tackle-breaking talent, but the Giants are just a dumpster fire. That offensive line has more holes in it than my ex-girlfriend’s stories about what she did the night before. Barkley’s broken tackles only turn losses into modest gains, and if you’re lucky then he breaks a huge one. There are better ranges of outcomes to dance with.

I’m also down on Dion Lewis (-11), Isaiah Crowell (-7) and Royce Freeman (-7) because Lewis has a broken offense around him, Crowell faces a tough Cleveland run defense and is the less versatile RB and Freeman is the 1B to Phillip Lindsay’s 1A right now. Freeman will continue to play, but he fills more of the two-down, short-yardage back role versus Lindsay’s more agile game and his receiving chops.

 

Week 3 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Here are the WRs I like considerably more than the ECR: Larry Fitzgerald (+5), Robert Woods (+13), Keelan Cole (+7), Calvin Ridley (+11) and James Washington (+15).

The Cardinals have flat-out sucked so far, but the Bears secondary is leaky. Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukamara and slot man Bryce Callahan have had their moments, but they yielded a 9-142-1 line to Randall Cobb -- he was more than just that long TD scamper -- and we saw Tyler Lockett muster a 5-60-1 line in Seattle’s MNF struggle. I hate trusting Sam Bradford (or Josh Rosen) for anything right now, but Fitz is still in WR2 territory for me in a game where they should need to throw very quickly, lest Khalil Mack eat all of their QBs for dinner.

Robert Woods seems poised to join Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp at the feast in Week 3, as his potential hasn’t turned into production just yet. He leads the WR trio in air yards despite trailing in fantasy points. It can feel like a chaotic carousel at times, but the numbers under the surface point to Woods popping.

Then you have Cole, who should square off with the often-burned Malcolm Butler. Ridley, who saw five targets compared to Mohamed Sanu’s two en route to a 4-64-1 line, is working into the offense just as the Saints reeling defense comes to town. And while Washington caught just one-of-five targets for a 14-yard TD, he’s going against a very green DB corps for the Bucs that features nobody with a PFF score above 63. That PIT-TB tilt has a Vegas total that’s reached 54 already, making it a nice game to target for fringe players.

On the other side of things, I’m down on both Emmanuel Sanders (-7) and Demaryius Thomas (-5). Don’t take this as a “you cannot start him!” -- I’m just lower on them heading into a road tilt with Baltimore. I realize the Ravens got torched by Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and Tyler Boyd in Week 2, but they’ve had 10 days to rebound and study up. Sanders should matchup well with Tavon Young in the slot, but Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr are worthy adversaries on the outside.

I’m also six slots lower on Allen Robinson II, who caught a stellar 10 balls in Week 2, but for 83 scoreless yards. The good news for AR owners is that he’s clearly Mitch Trubisky’s first read on the majority of pass plays. The bad news (more for Trubs) is that he doesn’t progress well through his reads and Robinson isn’t getting much separation, so the receptions tend to be in traffic. Robinson’s 21 yards after contact are nothing special and the Bears don’t generate enough offense to hit the red zone often. With whispers that Jordan Howard needs to be more involved, I’d drop AR from WR2 to WR3 status.

 

Week 3 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Typically a tighter position to rank, I have Jared Cook three slots higher (No. 6 vs. No. 9) since Derek Carr and Jon Gruden both seem happy to lean on the TE thus far. Cook’s floor still leaves something to be desired against the top-tier TEs, but he’s been good for a handful of elite games in past seasons and finds himself in a good environment for his own production. Oakland will face Miami in Week 3, who have shut down opposing wideouts but have yielded 155 yards to TEs through two weeks. It’s the little edges that can turn a week for you.

I also like both Jesse James and Vance McDonald two slots above their ECR, though James is the only one you’re starting for Week 3 since McDonald hasn’t “shown it” yet after starting the season injured.

I’m not much lower on anyone that I think you’d be using, though Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Benjamin Watson are three slots below ECR for me. This takes them from 14-team viability to “eh, I’d rather not”. For instance, I have Austin Hooper at 14 -- above both of the aforementioned TEs -- and I bet most see him as lower than them.

Watson is facing a dinged-up Atlanta squad that still held Zach Ertz to a 5-48-0 line on 10 targets. ASJ has just 43 air yards so far -- fewer than Logan Thomas -- and while he’s a big target in the red zone, I sense Jacksonville just pounding it in with Leonard Fournette if they get near the goal line. I like Keelan Cole to rip off a long TD, but don’t love the outlook in that tilted contest for someone who is unlikely to score from a distance.

 

Week 3 Rankings - Nick Mariano vs. Industry Consensus

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Todd Gurley	LAR	RB	1	0
2	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	2	0
3	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	RB	3	0
4	Melvin Gordon	LAC	RB	4	0
5	Antonio Brown	PIT	WR	6	1
6	James Conner	PIT	RB	5	-1
7	David Johnson	ARI	RB	16	9
8	Kareem Hunt	KC	RB	8	0
9	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	RB	10	1
10	Tevin Coleman	ATL	RB	13	3
11	Julio Jones	ATL	WR	11	0
12	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	WR	14	2
13	Michael Thomas	NO	WR	9	-4
14	Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	17	3
15	Jordan Howard	CHI	RB	15	0
16	Leonard Fournette	JAC	RB	31	15
17	Saquon Barkley	NYG	RB	7	-10
18	Kenyan Drake	MIA	RB	20	2
19	Odell Beckham Jr.	NYG	WR	18	-1
20	Giovani Bernard	CIN	RB	26	6
21	Dalvin Cook	MIN	RB	12	-9
22	A.J. Green	CIN	WR	19	-3
23	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	21	-2
24	Alex Collins	BAL	RB	35	11
25	Mike Evans	TB	WR	22	-3
26	Juju Smith-Schuster	PIT	WR	25	-1
27	Stefon Diggs	MIN	WR	24	-3
28	Jay Ajayi	PHI	RB	53	25
29	Adam Thielen	MIN	WR	28	-1
30	Lamar Miller	HOU	RB	23	-7
31	Adrian Peterson	WAS	RB	42	11
32	Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	29	-3
33	Davante Adams	GB	WR	27	-6
34	Brandin Cooks	LAR	WR	38	4
35	Marshawn Lynch	OAK	RB	36	1
36	T.Y. Hilton	IND	WR	30	-6
37	Matt Breida	SF	RB	34	-3
38	Carlos Hyde	CLE	RB	32	-6
39	Golden Tate	DET	WR	43	4
40	Latavius Murray	MIN	RB	78	38
41	Peyton Barber	TB	RB	49	8
42	Jamaal Williams	GB	RB	52	10
43	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	RB	46	3
44	Nelson Agholor	PHI	WR	40	-4
45	Jarvis Landry	CLE	WR	41	-4
46	Chris Thompson	WAS	RB	33	-13
47	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR	57	10
48	Bilal Powell	NYJ	RB	58	10
49	Chris Hogan	NE	WR	51	2
50	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	37	-13
51	Alfred Morris	SF	RB	82	31
52	Amari Cooper	OAK	WR	47	-5
53	Robert Woods	LAR	WR	70	17
54	Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	39	-15
55	LeSean McCoy	BUF	RB	76	21
56	Keelan Cole	JAC	WR	64	8
57	Kenny Golladay	DET	WR	50	-7
58	Chris Carson	SEA	RB	85	27
59	Kerryon Johnson	DET	RB	74	15
60	James White	NE	RB	61	1
61	Marvin Jones	DET	WR	56	-5
62	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	WR	44	-18
63	Sammy Watkins	KC	WR	66	3
64	Cooper Kupp	LAR	WR	65	1
65	Dion Lewis	TEN	RB	45	-20
66	Javorius Allen	BAL	RB	93	27
67	Allen Robinson	CHI	WR	48	-19
68	Devin Funchess	CAR	WR	68	0
69	DeSean Jackson	TB	WR	69	0
70	Isaiah Crowell	NYJ	RB	54	-16
71	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	81	10
72	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	WR	59	-13
73	Kenny Stills	MIA	WR	62	-11
74	Jimmy Graham	GB	TE	80	6
75	Michael Crabtree	BAL	WR	77	2
76	Randall Cobb	GB	WR	73	-3
77	Marquise Goodwin	SF	WR	97	20
78	Quincy Enunwa	NYJ	WR	60	-18
79	Royce Freeman	DEN	RB	75	-4
80	Will Fuller	HOU	WR	63	-17
81	Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	71	-10
82	Phillip Dorsett	NE	WR	98	16
83	Pierre Garcon	SF	WR	87	4
84	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	88	4
85	Robby Anderson	NYJ	WR	91	6
86	Brandon Marshall	SEA	WR	102	16
87	Sony Michel	NE	RB	72	-15
88	John Brown	BAL	WR	83	-5
89	Calvin Ridley	ATL	WR	123	34
90	Jordan Reed	WAS	TE	84	-6
91	Rex Burkhead	NE	RB	55	-36
92	Corey Clement	PHI	RB	67	-25
93	Jared Cook	OAK	TE	103	10
94	Jordan Wilkins	IND	RB	105	11
95	Geronimo Allison	GB	WR	96	1
96	George Kittle	SF	TE	79	-17
97	Kyle Rudolph	MIN	TE	95	-2
98	Rashaad Penny	SEA	RB	99	1
99	Corey Davis	TEN	WR	86	-13
100	Marlon Mack	IND	RB	101	1
101	Ted Ginn	NO	WR	90	-11
102	Dede Westbrook	JAC	WR	110	8
103	Jamison Crowder	WAS	WR	100	-3
104	Austin Ekeler	LAC	RB	89	-15
105	Aaron Jones	GB	RB	107	2
106	Sterling Shepard	NYG	WR	106	0
107	Antonio Callaway	CLE	WR	115	8
108	Evan Engram	NYG	TE	94	-14
109	Danny Amendola	MIA	WR	125	16
110	Tarik Cohen	CHI	RB	113	3
111	Tyler Boyd	CIN	WR	117	6
112	Trey Burton	CHI	TE	104	-8
113	Theo Riddick	DET	RB	108	-5
114	Frank Gore	MIA	RB	119	5
115	O.J. Howard	TB	TE	109	-6
116	Tyrell Williams	LAC	WR	127	11
117	Mike Williams	LAC	WR	112	-5
118	Josh Doctson	WAS	WR	133	15
119	Duke Johnson	CLE	RB	111	-8
120	Josh Gordon	NE	WR	121	1
121	Mohamed Sanu	ATL	WR	130	9
122	T.J. Yeldon	JAC	RB	92	-30
123	Devante Parker	MIA	WR	145	22
124	Jack Doyle	IND	TE	116	-8
125	LeGarrette Blount	DET	RB	131	6
126	Ito Smith	ATL	RB	126	0
127	C.J. Anderson	CAR	RB	137	10
128	Jordy Nelson	OAK	WR	120	-8
129	Donte Moncrief	JAC	WR	132	3
130	Albert Wilson	MIA	WR	149	19
131	Willie Snead	BAL	WR	151	20
132	David Njoku	CLE	TE	124	-8
133	Austin Hooper	ATL	TE	146	13
134	Eric Ebron	IND	TE	128	-6
135	Mike Gillislee	NO	RB	183	48
136	Paul Richardson	WAS	WR	118	-18
137	James Washington	PIT	WR	159	22
138	Kamar Aiken	PHI	WR	156	18
139	Jesse James	PIT	TE	147	8
140	Kelvin Benjamin	BUF	WR	122	-18
141	Jalen Richard	OAK	RB	152	11
142	Nyheim Hines	IND	RB	144	2
143	John Ross	CIN	WR	143	0
144	Christian Kirk	ARI	WR	180	36
145	Jarius Wright	CAR	WR	171	26
146	Ryan Grant	IND	WR	150	4
147	Dante Pettis	SF	WR	114	-33
148	Tyler Eifert	CIN	TE	141	-7
149	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	JAC	TE	134	-15
150	Benjamin Watson	NO	TE	135	-15
151	Ricky Seals-Jones	ARI	TE	153	2
152	Cole Beasley	DAL	WR	136	-16
153	Vance McDonald	PIT	TE	189	36
154	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	155	1
155	Allen Hurns	DAL	WR	138	-17
156	Jake Butt	DEN	TE	181	25
157	Darren Sproles	PHI	RB	160	3
158	Ty Montgomery	GB	RB	129	-29
159	Mark Walton	CIN	RB	166	7
160	Marcus Murphy	BUF	RB	158	-2
161	Torrey Smith	CAR	WR	188	27
162	Terrelle Pryor	NYJ	WR	163	1
163	Alfred Blue	HOU	RB	184	21
164	Laquon Treadwell	MIN	WR	217	53
165	D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	142	-23
166	Zay Jones	BUF	WR	200	34
167	Martavis Bryant	OAK	WR	196	29
168	Doug Martin	OAK	RB	175	7
169	Rishard Matthews	TEN	WR	157	-12
170	Taylor Gabriel	CHI	WR	154	-16
171	Jonnu Smith	TEN	TE	169	-2
172	Spencer Ware	KC	RB	193	21
173	Cordarrelle Patterson	NE	WR	187	14
174	Jaron Brown	SEA	WR	202	28
175	Will Dissly	SEA	TE	148	-27
176	Ryan Griffin	HOU	TE	203	27
177	Anthony Miller	CHI	WR	161	-16
178	Charles Clay	BUF	TE	170	-8
179	Kyle Juszczyk	SF	RB	215	36
180	Deonte Thompson	DAL	WR	185	5
181	Bruce Ellington	HOU	WR	173	-8
182	Chester Rogers	IND	WR	221	39
183	Rashard Higgins	CLE	WR	164	-19
184	Nick Vannett	SEA	TE	205	21
185	Nick Boyle	BAL	TE	201	16
186	Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	243	57
187	Antonio Gates	LAC	TE	179	-8
188	Taywan Taylor	TEN	WR	178	-10
189	Seth Roberts	OAK	WR	190	1
190	Darrell Daniels	SEA	TE	237	47
191	Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	194	3
192	Jacquizz Rodgers	TB	RB	168	-24
193	Nick Chubb	CLE	RB	197	4
194	Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	172	-22
195	Tavon Austin	DAL	WR	199	4
196	Tre'Quan Smith	NO	WR	204	8
197	Cody Latimer	NYG	WR	227	30
198	Joshua Perkins	PHI	TE	273	75
199	Maxx Williams	BAL	TE	255	56
200	Chris Conley	KC	WR	223	23
201	Chase Edmonds	ARI	RB	167	-34
202	Chris Ivory	BUF	RB	139	-63
203	Chad Williams	ARI	WR	207	4
204	Austin Carr	NO	WR	230	26
205	Virgil Green	LAC	TE	242	37
206	Corey Grant	JAC	RB	140	-66
207	Equanimeous St. Brown	GB	WR	256	49
208	Jermaine Kearse	NYJ	WR	252	44
209	Tajae Sharpe	TEN	WR	249	40
210	Jakeem Grant	MIA	WR	191	-19
211	Trent Taylor	SF	WR	195	-16
212	Terrance Williams	DAL	WR	257	45
213	Adam Humphries	TB	WR	241	28
214	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	1	0
215	Tom Brady	NE	QB	2	0
216	Cam Newton	CAR	QB	6	3
217	Drew Brees	NO	QB	4	0
218	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	7	2
219	Kirk Cousins	MIN	QB	5	-1
220	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	3	-4
221	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB	8	0
222	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	14	5
223	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	12	2
224	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TB	QB	9	-2
225	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	10	-2
226	Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	QB	11	-2
227	Blake Bortles	JAC	QB	18	4
228	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB	13	-2
229	Jared Goff	LAR	QB	16	0
230	Tyrod Taylor	CLE	QB	20	3
231	Alex Smith	WAS	QB	17	-1
232	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB	19	0
233	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	QB	22	2
234	Mitch Trubisky	CHI	QB	25	4
235	Andrew Luck	IND	QB	15	-7
236	Andy Dalton	CIN	QB	21	-2
237	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	26	2
238	Joe Flacco	BAL	QB	23	-2
239	Derek Carr	OAK	QB	24	-2
240	Case Keenum	DEN	QB	29	2
241	Sam Darnold	NYJ	QB	27	-1
242	Eli Manning	NYG	QB	28	-1
243	Marcus Mariota	TEN	QB	30	0
244	Sam Bradford	ARI	QB	31	0
245	Josh Allen	BUF	QB	32	0
246	Lamar Jackson	BAL	QB	35	2
247	Blaine Gabbert	TEN	QB	33	-1
248	Nick Foles	PHI	QB	34	-1
249	Josh Rosen	ARI	QB	36	0
250	Minnesota Vikings	MIN	DST	1	0
251	Chicago Bears	CHI	DST	2	0
252	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAC	DST	3	0
253	Cleveland Browns	CLE	DST	6	2
254	Houston Texans	HOU	DST	4	-1
255	Baltimore Ravens	BAL	DST	5	-1
256	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI	DST	7	0
257	Carolina Panthers	CAR	DST	10	2
258	Los Angeles Rams	LAR	DST	8	-1
259	Arizona Cardinals	ARI	DST	19	9
260	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN	DST	15	4
261	New York Giants	NYG	DST	18	6
262	Green Bay Packers	GB	DST	17	4
263	New England Patriots	NE	DST	14	0
264	Seattle Seahawks	SEA	DST	16	1
265	Dallas Cowboys	DAL	DST	11	-5
266	New York Jets	NYJ	DST	13	-4
267	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT	DST	22	4
268	Denver Broncos	DEN	DST	9	-10
269	Miami Dolphins	MIA	DST	12	-8
270	Tennessee Titans	TEN	DST	20	-1
271	Kansas City Chiefs	KC	DST	25	3
272	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB	DST	29	6
273	Washington Redskins	WAS	DST	27	3
274	Oakland Raiders	OAK	DST	26	1
275	Indianapolis Colts	IND	DST	28	2
276	San Francisco 49ers	SF	DST	32	5
277	Los Angeles Chargers	LAC	DST	21	-7
278	Atlanta Falcons	ATL	DST	24	-5
279	New Orleans Saints	NO	DST	23	-7
280	Buffalo Bills	BUF	DST	30	-1
281	Detroit Lions	DET	DST	31	-1
282	Stephen Gostkowski	NE	K	1	0
283	Harrison Butker	KC	K	2	0
284	Dan Bailey	MIN	K	5	2
285	Matt Bryant	ATL	K	4	0
286	Sam Ficken	LAR	K	12	7
287	Justin Tucker	BAL	K	3	-3
288	Chris Boswell	PIT	K	8	1
289	Jake Elliott	PHI	K	7	-1
290	Wil Lutz	NO	K	6	-3
291	Robbie Gould	SF	K	9	-1
292	Mason Crosby	GB	K	10	-1
293	Josh Lambo	JAC	K	14	2
294	Chandler Catanzaro	TB	K	15	2
295	Matt Prater	DET	K	11	-3
296	Graham Gano	CAR	K	13	-2
297	Sebastian Janikowski	SEA	K	23	7
298	Ka'imi Fairbairn	HOU	K	18	1
299	Jason Sanders	MIA	K	24	6
300	Cody Parkey	CHI	K	17	-2
301	Dustin Hopkins	WAS	K	19	-1
302	Adam Vinatieri	IND	K	16	-5
303	Caleb Sturgis	LAC	K	22	0
304	Randy Bullock	CIN	K	21	-2
305	Brett Maher	DAL	K	32	8
306	Mike Nugent	OAK	K	28	3
307	Brandon McManus	DEN	K	20	-6
308	Greg Joseph	CLE	K	34	7
309	Phil Dawson	ARI	K	33	5
310	Ryan Succop	TEN	K	25	-4
311	Aldrick Rosas	NYG	K	27	-3
312	Jason Myers	NYJ	K	26	-5
313	Steven Hauschka	BUF	K	36	4

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