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Craig Rondinone explains why he believes Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson could be a draft day bust in 2018 fantasy football leagues based on his first round ADP.
Arizona Cardinals cornerstone David Johnson broke more hearts than a slimy lothario in 2017. Fantasy football players are hoping/praying that Johnson does not pull a repeat performance in 2018.
Johnson was the belle of fantasy football coming into the 2017 campaign. He was rated as a top-five player by most fantasy experts and was No. 1 on several lists --- and rightly so. Johnson rushed for 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns along with adding 80 receptions for 879 yards and an additional four scores during a 2016 season that will go down in the record books as one of the greatest in fantasy football history. But before we could anoint Johnson as the next Marshall Faulk, Johnson fractured his wrist in Arizona’s first game of the 2017 season and was not heard from again. Instead of a multi-week injury, it was a season-ending injury. Fantasy owners who used their first-round pick on Johnson probably fared as well as Apollo Creed against Ivan Drago at the beginning of Rocky IV.
Johnson enters 2018 highly-regarded again, despite his ruined 2017 season. His injury has not deterred experts from ranking him right up there among the elite fantasy performers. Many probably think that lightning cannot strike twice, that an injury cannot wreck this superstar’s season two years in a row. Fantasy football owners should know better, though. Do I think Johnson is destined to break your heart in 2018 if you draft him? Indeed I do, but not for all the reasons you might think. Here is my take on the situation, surprising as it may be.
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Three Reasons David Johnson Will Break Your Heart in 2018
Johnson’s health (or lack thereof)
It is too early to label Johnson an injury-prone player or an injury risk. One freak injury does not suddenly make him Jordan Reed. Any player can fracture a wrist or suffer a season-ending injury if they are tackled the right way or land the wrong way. So to lower him on your cheat sheets and draft lists because of a literal bad break is a crime, but…
Running backs get injured, fantasy owners! Get used to it. Yes, Los Angeles’ Todd Gurley came into the NFL with the reputation for being injury-prone in college, and all he has done is suit up for 44 of the 48 regular season contests and he was arguably the top player to own in fantasy football last season. Meanwhile, players like Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell and Buffalo’s LeSean McCoy have had their ups and downs with injuries over their careers. Upper-echelon bell cow backs carry the ball more and consequently set themselves up for more injuries, and Johnson handles the ball more than anyone when he is on the field for the Cardinals.
We have no idea if Johnson’s wrist will be a chronic condition or if his body might be brittle, just like we have no idea if Johnson could rack up 400 touches and be the same player he was in 2016. All we know he has been Arizona’s top tailback for two seasons. One year he stayed healthy and suited up for 16 games. The other year he did not even make it through one contest unscathed. The odds are probably 50-50 that he lasts for 14-16 games this season.
Arizona’s Overhaul on Offense
Johnson was the centerpiece of one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL at one time, but that time has quickly passed since he has been out of action. While the offense will still revolve around him and his superlative rushing and receiving skills, the supporting cast and coaching staff around him has drastically changed.
Arizona’s longtime quarterback Carson Palmer, has retired. Arizona’s head coach and offensive mastermind Bruce Arians also retired, one day before Palmer did. The Cardinals offense is in flux. No. 1 receiver and future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald will likely be on his farewell tour since his contract is up at the end of the season and there were thought he would retire this past offseason. Injury-prone veteran Sam Bradford will be leading the offense while rookie Josh Rosen learns the ropes. The Cardinals also revamped their below-average offensive line, but it is no sure thing to be a much stronger unit than it was last year.
All this likely means defenses will key on Johnson more than ever before. While offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has a great track record, the jury is out on whether he can utilize Johnson as well as Arians did, and the odds are that the Bradford/Rosen combo will not be as effective in 2018 as Palmer was in 2016 when Johnson had his amazing season.
One-Year Wonder?
Is Johnson really just the Right Said Fred of fantasy football (too sexy for his ADP)?
The only thing we know is that Johnson has only had one season as a full-time workhorse slash fantasy superstud, and that is a short laundry list of accomplishments compared to other big-time backs. It is possible defenses and coordinators have found ways to slow him down or shut him down over the past year of studying tape of him. He has a skill set that probably shocked opponents in 2016 because it is not normal for a running back to have the same pass-catching acumen as an above-average wide receiver. Johnson will no longer be a surprise to defenses in 2018, and that could be to his detriment.
Johnson is being rated as a top-five player by many if not most fantasy publications right now and he deserves the lofty ranking. There is a chance he may have 400 touches as Arizona’s top offensive option and end the season with the numbers of a fantasy MVP, but there are also reasons to believe he will be a heartbreaker worthy of being in the late Tom Petty’s band. Draft him if you want. Just know that Johnson broke a ton of fantasy football players' hearts once and he could very well do it again.
