Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts (Week 17)

Welcome to our surprising starts series. Every week we’ll be going over a few surprising starting pitcher performances around the majors to determine whether these starts were smoke and mirrors or something more.

With only the weekend's games to chose from it was slim pickings this week on the sleeper starting pitcher front. It does act as an opportunity to look at a few really obscure pitchers that are totally off fantasy radars.

Dereck Rodriguez hasn't been off fantasy radars, and deserves a some love after starting the second half strong with a one run outing against the Athletics on Friday. Mike Fiers and Dan Straily have often been targets to stream hitters against this season, but are both in the midst of hot stretches that need a deeper look.

Real Deal or Mirage?

Dereck Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants

2018 Stats (prior to this start): 46.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 2.8 K/BB ratio

07/20 @ OAK: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

When Dereck Rodriguez was first promoted he didn’t seem long for the majors. The Giants were down Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, and Madison Bumgarner at the time and Rodriguez looked like no more than a depth option, yet he’s outlasted the return of those veterans and watched more established pitchers like Ty Blach and Derek Holland head to the bullpen. The 26-year-old son of Ivan Rodriguez has a 2.72 ERA through 53 innings and is poised to stay in the big leagues. But just how sustainable is it?

Rodriguez’s pitch arsenal could best be described as a “jack of all trades, master of none” approach. He throws a four-seamer and two-seamer, averaging a pedestrian 92.1 MPH with his heater. He also throws a curveball, changeup, and slider. It’s quite a deep arsenal for someone that was converted from the outfield to pitching in 2014 at the age of 22. Of the secondary pitches Rodriguez’s curveball is the standout. This season batters are hitting .130 with a .044 ISO and an 8.2% whiff rate. The whiff rate may be a little lacking, but Rodriguez makes up for it with a 63% groundball rate on the curveball. He is also above average in spin rate by 300 RPM and has two and a half inches of drop above league average. As a result his curveball has an 81.1 MPH average exit velocity against and an average launch angle against of just two degrees, giving batters a miniscule .183 xBA against Rodriguez’s curveball this season.

Rodriguez’s other secondary pitches seem to have overperformed based on metrics thus far. His slider in particular is a weak offering. It has a meager 8.25% whiff rate and batters are hitting .250 against it. The pitch has below average movement for a slider, bad enough that the pitch has been mistakenly classified as a cutter by Statcast, though Pitch F/x recognizes it a slider. With a .286 xBA against this pitch shouldn’t be considered a reliable piece of Rodriguez’s arsenal. His changeup has been even luckier, as it has a .225 AVG against but a .291 xBA. He has also given up four extra-base hits on the changeup but no home runs. Like the slider, Rodriguez’s changeup has overperformed thus far and can’t be counted on to maintain this production.

There is also the issue of Rodriguez’s fastballs. Batters have crushed the sinker with a .348 AVG and .239 ISO against. Two of the three home runs that Rodriguez allowed have come off the sinker. The sinker only has a 45% groundball rate and an atrocious 42.5% line drive rate. It hasn’t been a good pitch for him in any regard and Rodriguez should probably follow the lead of several current MLB pitchers and move away from his two-seam fastball. His four-seamer on the other hand has performed well as a flyball pitch. Batters have a 24 degree average launch angle against on Rodriguez’s fastball and a 30.4% infield flyball rate. It has been a big part of why he’s maintained a 5.5% HR/FB ratio this season. Pitchers that can regularly induce infield flyballs will naturally have lower HR/FB ratio. Rodriguez only has an 11% IFFB rate in the majors this season, but in the minors he never had an IFFB rate below 19%, and it was routinely 24% or higher going back to his days in the Twins’ farm system. This has shown to be a consistent, repeatable skill for Rodriguez throughout his development and should translate to the majors.

This type of flyball heavy skillset, while proven effective at times in the past, often forces the pitcher to walk a fine line when it comes to home run prevention. Marco Estrada is the most famous example of this, and he is the pitcher that brought awareness for many in the pitcher’s ability to induce infield flyballs. Estrada has a career 10.8% HR/FB ratio and 14.3% IFFB rate, yet he has allowed 1.38 HR/9 in his career. That is the risk associated with a flyball heavy pitching style, and he allowed 1.97 HR/9 at Triple-A before his promotion. Rodriguez isn’t as flyball heavy as Estrada, but that’s partially because Rodriguez has a 25.3% line drive rate against. In the minors Rodriguez was usually over 40% in flyball rate but this season he has a 35% flyball rate, and all those missing flyballs have become line drives. Luckily for Rodriguez he doesn’t have to pitch in the Rogers Centre and instead plays his home games in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. Even with the ballpark he probably can’t maintain a 5.5% HR/FB ratio all season, and then if we look at normalizing metrics like his 4.28 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA to get a better picture of what may lie ahead.

Verdict:

Rodriguez has a vast, yet shallow arsenal. Featuring five total pitches, only two have been especially effective for him. His curveball is his best pitch, and while it doesn’t induce strikeouts it should produce groundballs and weak contact. His four-seamer has the ability to induce infield flyballs, a skill that he has shown throughout his minor league career. An unsustainable 5.5% HR/FB ratio has deflated his ERA. Good pitcher to use at home or as a streamer, but long-term home run suppression is questionable.

Mike Fiers, Detroit Tigers

2018 Stats (prior to this start): 104.2 IP, 3.70 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 3.6 K/BB ratio

07/21 vs. BOS: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

Fiers has actually been on a pretty nice run since the beginning of June. In his last nine starts Fiers has a 2.56 ERA and 3.5 K/BB ratio. He also did a better job of limiting the long ball, with a 1.1 HR/9 during that stretch compared to his 1.48 HR/9 on the year. During this nine start span Fiers doesn’t appear to be doing too much different in regards to pitch mix. He still has his five pitch repertoire, featuring a four-seam fastball, sinker, and cutter. He also has a curveball and changeup as secondary pitches. Without a glaring change in approach we need to evaluate whether this is a run of good luck or something more.

One thing that has changed for Fiers is an increase in velocity, going from an average of 88 MPH with his fastball to 90 MPH. He was throwing 91 MPH in this start against Boston. Fiers is still decidedly below the league average in terms of velocity, but the velocity change seems to have helped his cutter more than his four-seamer. Before June 4 batters were hitting .297 with a .405 ISO against Fiers’ cutter, but after June 4 they are hitting .171 with an .049 ISO. What a difference three MPH and an inch of horizontal movement makes. The pitch only has a meager 6.5% whiff rate, but groundballs have gone way up over Fiers past nine starts. Here is a graph showing groundball rate by pitch type over the season (source:brooksbaseball.net).

The cutter has performed well for Fiers, but it’s hard to buy into such a sudden and drastic turnaround, not only in the context of this season, but of Fiers’ career. Batters have always crushed Fiers’ cutter to the tune of a .309 AVG and .229 ISO. Even when he was at peak velocity the cutter wasn’t an effective offering. His cutter (which Statcast defines as a slider) has a .634 xSLG against versus an actual .459 SLG. That is a season long number which accounts for how bad Fiers had been performing at the beginning of the season, but is quite foreboding as to what may lie ahead for Fiers.

There is also the issue of his fastball, which had a .262 AVG and .191 ISO against before this hot streak, and a .205 AVG and .250 ISO against since June 4. Batters have higher ISO (.250) than BABIP (.220) and 12 of 18 hits against have been extra-base hits, including five home runs. The whiff rate on his fastball has gone up from 7% to 11% during this stretch, but that was inflated by this start against Boston where Fiers induced nine of 35 total swinging strikes in one start. Nearly ¼ of his whiffs came in one start artificially boosting his whiff rate almost 2% higher than it otherwise would have been. Fiers also has the dubious distinction of having a higher average exit velocity against (91 MPH) than average fastball velocity (89 MPH). He does have a 36% IFFB rate on his fastball and 24 degree average launch angle against. That may lead to a lower BABIP, but it won’t solve his home run issues.

Too much of what Fiers is doing depends on luck and other qualifying factors.. He needs his cutter to induce more groundballs than ever before, and he needs those groundballs to be hit to fielders. He needs to induce flyballs with his fastball, but also needs to keep them in the infield or at least in play. He also needs batters to make softer contact on those flyballs. He needs his fastball to get even more swinging strikes despite below average velocity and movement. The risk isn’t worth the reward here. Fiers is on a bad team, so he won’t get many wins. He has a 6.65 K/9, so he won’t get many strikeouts. He has a 1.48 HR/9, meaning he could get bombed in any given start. In traditional 5x5 Roto you are praying for ERA and WHIP help, which are two categories in which Fiers hasn't excelled in since 2015. His 5.1% walk rate is a career low, but that is about the only positive thing in Fiers’ profile.

Verdict:

When deciding whether to add a pitcher like this it helps to paraphrase the immortal Gertrude Stein. Always remember, “A scrub is a scrub is a scrub is a scrub”. Fiers has shown us his true colors with three straight years and four of the last five with a SIERA above 4.25. Too many things need to go right for Fiers for him to have even marginal mixed league value as a streamer.

Dan Straily, Miami Marlins

2018 Stats (prior to this start): 71.1 IP, 4.29 ERA, 5.44 FIP, 1.8 K/BB ratio

07/20 @ TB: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

Like Mike Fiers, Straily has been on a nice little run that has largely gone unnoticed because of a negative reputation. Over his last five starts Straily has a 2.78 ERA, but the peripheral numbers are a little better with Straily. Straily has a 3.68 FIP and 0.6 HR/9 during this stretch, though he still has a weak 6.6 K/9. Straily has been an odd pitcher to figure since his breakthrough 2016 season with the Reds. That season he had a 3.76 ERA, but a 4.88 FIP and 1.46 HR/9. He also had a below average 7.62 K/9 despite a league average 10.1% SwStr rate. One would presume the move from Cincinnati to Miami would help curb his home run issues, but Straily allowed 31 homers for the second straight season last year and sported a league average 8.42 K/9 with a significantly above average 12% SwStr rate. Straily’s ability to get whiffs come from his two secondary pitches, the slider and the changeup. Each pitch has a whiff rate just below 17% and and batters are hitting under .215 against each pitch. A bad fastball has been the bane of Straily’s career, as batters are hitting .279 with a .237 ISO all time against his four-seamer.

During this hot stretch Straily has begun throwing his fastball less with a 42.8% usage rate over his last five starts. He has upped his slider usage to 35.66% and his changeup usage to 19%. Both pitches have performed imperceptibly well for him over the past five starts, with batters hitting just .087 with a .044 ISO against the changeup and .182 with a .046 ISO against the slider. Both pitches have a microscopic BABIP against, and Straily has been riding a .220 BABIP overall over his last five starts. While that low of a BABIP is obviously unsustainable, remember that Straily is a flyball pitcher that has a .262 BABIP against for his career. Flyballs, while great for power, are the least likely type of flyball to become a hit, and the league has a .118 BABIP on flyballs this season. It would be possible for Straily to maintain a below average BABIP, as he has often done so in past seasons.

During this five start stretch Straily has double digit whiffs in every start expect the one against Washington. While Straily’s SwStr rate has always suggested the potential for more strikeouts that never came, the fact that he is deemphasizing his fastball in favor of breaking balls make this more interesting. Against teams that strike out a lot he should be able to take advantage of weak hitters, which is why he had a strikeout rate greater than 23% against the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Brewers. The 0.6 HR/9 seems fluky for Straily, as he has just a 5.6% HR/FB ratio during this five start stretch, 6.5% below his career average. Like Mike Fiers Straily has a great IFFB rate with his fastball at 30.2%, and his slider also has a 34.5% IFFB rate, but as we see with pitchers like Straily, Fiers, and Marco Estrada that comes at the cost of an inflated home run rate. Straily is preferable to Fiers, but neither is a great option even as a streamer.

Verdict:

Straily is doing something he should have done two years ago, throw his fastball less. A higher reliance on his slider has led to a 2.78 ERA and 0.6 HR/9 over his last five starts, but that hardly seems sustainable given his past. His 5.6% HR/FB rate will inevitably regress, and the increased breaking ball usage hasn’t translated to many more strikeouts. As a desperation streamer in a good matchup Straily is better than Fiers, but still not a great option. He is worth monitoring going forward, because if this breaking ball heavy approach starts translating to strikeouts we may have a (really) poor man’s Masahiro Tanaka on our hands.

More Weekly Lineup Prep