RADIO
Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of speedy outfielders Dustin Fowler and Austin Meadows to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.
Fantasy owners have been struggling with stolen bases since rotisserie baseball was invented. The prevailing thought used to be that they would always be available on the wire, encouraging owners to concentrate on power in their drafts and sort speed out later. As the total number of steals began to decline, many owners went the other way and rostered Billy Hamilton or Byron Buxton to lock up the SB category at the expense of everything else.
The optimal play is between these two extremes. You don't want to ignore SB during your draft, but you don't want to sacrifice an entire roster spot with a dedicated specialist either. Ideally, you have several players who steal while contributing in other categories. If you don't, the two guys below may be able to help you.
Here is a closer look at Dustin Fowler of the Oakland A's and Austin Meadows of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Dustin Fowler (OF, OAK) - 4% Owned
Fowler is probably most famous for making his MLB debut with the Yankees but tearing his ACL in the outfield before registering a single big league PA last season. He has big league PAs now (25 to be exact), but the resulting numbers haven't been very good (.227/.320/.500 with a HR and two steals). The 23-year old is almost certainly better than he's shown thus far, with elite fantasy upside.
Fowler put up numbers at every stop in the High Minors. He slashed .281/.311/.458 with 12 HR and 25 SB (11 CS) over 574 PAs with Double-A Trenton in 2016, flashing speed with a solid average and HR total. He didn't walk very often (3.8% BB%), but avoided strikeouts (15% K%) and allowed his solid .313 BABIP to get him on base. His raw power wasn't exceptional (6.9% HR/FB), but he hit enough fly balls (38.1% FB%) t0 compile double digit homer totals anyway.
The Yankees promoted their prospect to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre for 2017, where Fowler did more of the same over 313 PAs. He slashed .293/.329/.542 with 13 long balls and 13 steals (five CS). A favorable LD% (24.9%) produced an elevated .335 BABIP, and he still avoided the strikeout (20.1% K%) while seldom walking (4.8% BB%). His FB% was strong (41.9%), and his HR/FB nearly doubled (13.5%).
The Yankees tried to use him at the MLB level, but that famously went badly. He became Oakland property and slashed .310/.333/.484 with three homers and eight steals (two CS) in 132 PAs for Triple-A Nashville before his big league debut this season. His .353 BABIP was high, but plus foot speed and a line drive swing (22.1% LD%) should make an elevated figure sustainable for him. He again refused to walk (3.8% BB%) or strikeout (16.7% K%), while his FB% slipped to 32.7%. It's 38.9% at the MLB level, so there is no reason to think that he forgot how to lift the ball this season.
Fowler's minor league lines would be fantasy-relevant as is, but there is reason to believe that more value is hiding in his bat. First of all, the changes to the ball that helped MLB hitters hit more homers than ever before didn't happen in the minors. This has helped players like Francisco Lindor and Ozzie Albies hit for more power at the highest level than they did on the farm.
Second, all of his minor league ballparks limited power. Trenton suppressed HR totals from 2014-2016 (0.805 park factor). Scranton/Wilkes-Barre had a 0.879 figure over the same period. Finally, Nashville's 0.633 HR factor in 2016 (the park opened in 2015) was the most challenging Fowler faced. Compilers are often affected by park factors more than true power hitters, and Fowler largely succeeded despite his hostile home stadiums. Oakland isn't great for left-handed power either (91 FanGraphs HR factor in 2017), but it's better than Nashville.
There has also been one positive development in Fowler's MLB sample: plate discipline. He's walking 12% of the time at the MLB level, a rate supported by an above average eye (28.3% chase rate). He didn't walk at all in the minors and could regress, but Oakland has championed OBP since Moneyball was published. Their top hitters all know how to work a walk and are probably encouraged to share that wisdom with younger guys like Fowler.
While Fowler is currently buried in Oakland's lineup, Marcus Semien is not a fixture as the team's leadoff guy. If Fowler's plate discipline gains hold, he could easily usurp him and add runs scored to his steals, average, and power. A team in every league could benefit by rolling the dice on Fowler's upside.
Verdict: Champ
Austin Meadows (OF, PIT) - 20% Owned
Meadows was once seen as a premium prospect, but injuries and lackluster minor league performances have hurt his stock. He went 2-for-4 with a steal in his MLB debut, foreshadowing the type of production fantasy owners will ultimately look to him for.
In a lot of ways, Meadows is the same player as Fowler. They're both left-handed 23-year old outfielders with speed and power potential. Meadows began his High Minors career with 190 PAs at Double-A Altoona in 2016. He hit .311/.365/.611 with six homers and nine steals (three CS) at the level, walking often (8.4% BB%) while rarely striking out (16.8% K%). His .343 BABIP was high, but he hit enough fly balls (37% FB%) well enough (11.8% HR/FB) to count on power production.
The performance earned him a crack at Triple-A Indianapolis, where Meadows slashed .214/.297/.460 with six homers and eight steals (two CS) over 145 PAs. He appeared to completely sell out for power, as his HR/FB (13.6%), FB% (47.8%), and K% (23.4%) all increased while his BABIP cratered (.246). At least he kept walking (10.3% BB%).
Meadows returned to Indianapolis in 2017, slashing .250/.311/.359 with four homers and 11 SB (three CS) over 312 PAs. His FB% (35.6%) and K% (16%) returned to normal, but his HR/FB (4.8%) fell off of a cliff while his BABIP (.289) only partially recovered. His BB% (7.7%) also declined relative to the previous season. It's worth noting that Meadows struggled with hamstring and oblique issues for almost the entire 2017 season, perhaps explaining his lack of production.
Unfortunately, things didn't get much better this year. Meadows again started the year at Indianapolis, slashing .294/.336/.397 with a homer and eight steals (one CS) over 136 PAs before his MLB debut. He didn't strikeout often (15.4% K%), but his BB% (5.1%) declined while his HR/FB became a joke (2.4%). His FB% (40.4%) was high, but had no oomph behind it at all. A .346 BABIP gave him pretty surface stats, but his major league viability is not assured moving forward.
To be fair, both Altoona (0.732 HR factor) and Indianapolis (0.656) hurt power hitters. Still, it seems likely that all of the injuries Meadows sustained robbed him of his moderate power, making him a pure average/speed guy in fantasy. The Pirates hit him seventh in his debut, and seem likely to send him back to Indianapolis when their outfield is healthy again. He's a fine stopgap, but shouldn't be viewed as a long term fantasy option until he has a clear path to playing time and/or a power spike.
Verdict: Chump
