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Michael Bash, Max Brill, Adam Hammer, Tom Bellucco, and Matt Wilkes break down how the Big Ten Conference Tournament can affect the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
The most exciting time of the college basketball season has arrived, and postseason play starts this week with the Big Ten tournament.
The tourney starts a week early this year, meaning regular season basketball will still be going in many other conferences. Action is set to kick off in Madison Square Garden on Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. ET when No. 12 seed Iowa takes on No. 13 Illinois. While those two teams are non-factors when it comes to the NCAA Tournament and the Big Ten has had a down season compared to year's past, several programs are vying for top seeds and have a chance to make a Final Four run. Others, meanwhile, are on the bubble and need a strong showing this week to get a shot.
Here, Michael Bash, Max Brill, Adam Hammer, Tom Bellucco and I broke down the teams contending for a spot in the Big Dance and what each needs to do to secure a spot in the field of 68.
Editor's Note: Over the next few days, be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice. Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region will be released shortly.
Michigan State Spartans (28-3, 16-2 in Big Ten)
Michigan State basketball is synonymous with winning under legendary head coach Tom Izzo, this year is no different with the 28-3 recording after the conclusion of a tough and trying regular season in East Lansing. Between injuries, scandals and NCAA violations, things have been a bit rocky for the Spartans. On the basketball court, they have continued to churn out victories at an extremely high rate and head into the conference tournament with the #1 seed, as they look to lock up a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in a few weeks.
Sparty is led by a pair of future NBA lottery picks in small forward Miles Bridges, and freshman center Jaren Jackson Jr. Bridges, a southpaw shooter with unparalleled athletic ability in the college game, paces the Spartans offensively to the tune of 16.8 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. He surprised the whole country, as well as the NBA, by deciding to stay in school for another year. Bridges' goal, to cut down the nets at the end of the season, is very much in reach. Jackson Jr., the freshman center and future top-5 pick in the upcoming NBA draft, is a do-it-all center for the Spartans and a defensive star as he is their main rim protector. Jackson earned the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in a season where he averaged 11.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. The success of the team in postseason play will fall heavily on the shoulders of their two stars and how far they can carry them, but this team is as deep as any team in the country, with all five starters averaging over 11 points per game.
Michigan State has shown the ability and toughness to close out hard-fought games as well as put their put their foot on the gas and blow out inferior opponents when they are on. With the memory of losing their first-round game as the #2 seed fresh in the minds of Spartan fans, Michigan State will look to avoid that same fate, although this year they have Final Four aspirations, and with good reasons. First up is the Big Ten Tournament, where they will be favored to win it all, likely on a collision course with Purdue, who they narrowly beat by one possession two weeks ago.
Ohio State Buckeyes (24-7, 15-3)
Coming off two straight disappointing seasons that resulted in the firing of long-time head coach Thad Matta, Ohio State had understandably low expectations coming into the 2017-’18 season. Picked to finish 11th in the Big Ten before the year began, the Buckeyes had a respectable non-conference showing before reeling off nine straight wins to open league play, including a victory over then-#1 Michigan State. Now, led by the conference coach (Chris Holtmann) and player of the year (Keita Bates-Diop), as well as a solid supporting cast of veterans, Ohio State is the second seed in the Big Ten Tournament -- its highest seeding since 2013.
The Buckeyes come into the tournament on a high note after notching a last-second, double-overtime win against Indiana, but the team has faltered a bit as of late, dropping two of its last four games. Ohio State will get time to rest up, though, as they have a double bye and won’t take the court until Friday. Holtmann’s squad is set to play the winner of #7 seed Penn State (19-12, 9-9) and #10 Northwestern (15-16, 6-12). The Nittany Lions have proven a tough matchup for OSU this season, winning both meetings, but the Buckeyes grinded out a win against Northwestern on the road in January. With a first-round victory, a potential rematch with Purdue, which Ohio State defeated on the road in early February, awaits in the semifinals.
While Ohio State is safely in the Big Dance, a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament could change its outlook when the field of 68 is revealed on March 11. Both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm currently have the Buckeyes as a #4 seed. With a first-round loss, Holtmann’s squad could drop to #5, which is a dangerous place to be with the dreaded 5/12 matchup. With a win or two, they could hold serve and stay a #4, but winning the whole tournament could potentially get them as high as the #2 line. In any situation, it’ll be hard for OSU fans to be disappointed given the expectations coming into the year.
Purdue Boilermakers (26-5, 15-3)
Matt Painter has built one of the Big Ten’s most consistent basketball teams since taking over as the Purdue head coach in 2005. Postseason success, however, has eluded him, as the Boilermakers have never made it past the Sweet 16 under his watch. This season’s squad will give Painter his best shot at a deep run into March, and it starts with the Big Ten Tournament this weekend.
At one point this season, Purdue won 19 straight games, and with one of the most experienced rosters in the county, it isn’t a team anybody wants to play this time of year. The Boilermakers start four seniors and one sophomore, and it can score from anywhere on the floor. Three of those starters (Carsen Edwards, P.J. Thompson, and Dakota Mathias) shoot better than 40% from three-point range, and one other (Vince Edwards) is just a tick below at 39.8%. Down low, the 7-foot-2 Isaac Haas can shoot over almost any defender and ranks second in the conference in field-goal percentage (61.1%). As a team, Purdue shoots 49.6% from the floor (16th in the country), 42.1% from three (3rd), and trails only Villanova and Duke in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com.
The Boilermakers are the #3 seed in the Big Ten tournament and are set to face the winner of #6 Indiana and #11 Minnesota/#14 Rutgers. Purdue is a combined 5-0 against those teams this season. Should they win, they could move on to a rematch with #2 Ohio State, which won the previous matchup by a single point, a victory that proved to be the tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings.
Regardless of what happens in this weekend’s tournament, though, Purdue will likely receive its highest seed in the Big Dance since 2011, when it earned a #3 placement. With a win or two, the Boilermakers could find themselves with a two seed for the first time since 1998. If they take home the Big Ten crown and other dominoes fall the right way (they’d likely need at least one of Kansas, Xavier, and Duke to lose their conference tournament), the program could be looking at its first #1 seed since 1996.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (22-9, 13-5)
Despite a shiny record both in conference and out as well as the number four seed and double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, Nebraska is still very much on Joe Lunardi's bubble. In fact, if he had to decide today, Joey Brackets would be leaving the Cornhuskers off of the final list of 68 teams heading to the dance. That's not to say that the committee is on the same page, but looking at their season in a nutshell, Nebraska doesn't seem to have that impressive win on their resume. Their best victory to date is likely the home win against Michigan, and they may just have to do that again if they want to keep playing beyond their trip to MSG.
Juniors Isaac Copeland and James Palmer Jr. are the only players averaging more than 10.5 points-per-game, which could be part of the reason that the team struggles against tougher competition. Even still, you would think there's a place in the end-of-the-year celebration for a 22-win team with 13 conference victories, not to mention they were undefeated on their home court in conference play. The game Friday afternoon against either Michigan, Illinois, or Iowa will be a big one of the Cornhuskers, and if they want to stamp their ticket to the NCAA Tournament for sure they'll need to advance to Saturday's action and prove they can play solid basketball away from their home court.
Michigan Wolverines (24-7, 13-5)
The 2017-2018 Michigan Wolverines, much like every other John Beilein team, has gotten better as the season has gone on. The Wolverines lost only two non-conference games in the regular season (to LSU and North Carolina), and the rest of the team’s seven losses came to B1G opponents. One of those losses, to OSU in early December, featured Michigan blowing a 20-point lead, but that game served as a turning point. After the devastating OSU loss, Michigan won nine of its next ten games, including a seven-game winning streak. The team’s only loss in that stretch was a one-point loss to Purdue at home and even though the team didn’t come out victorious, they showed that they could hang with the best of the best.
The Wolverines delivered upsets of Michigan State (at Breslin) and Ohio State (at home) in the latter half of their schedule and closed out the regular season by rattling off five straight victories. Michigan won the B1G tournament in 2016-2017, and after losing D.J. Wilson, Derrick Walton, Andrew Dakich, and Zak Irvin was expected to get worse, not better. Quite the opposite has happened.
German PF Moe Wagner has come into his own as a big man, averaging 14.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 53.6% shooting from the field. He has also demonstrated an ability to stretch the floor by shooting 40.9% from beyond the arc. Wagner’s defense still leaves a little to be desired, but he can hang with most of the big men in the B1G, save for Isaac Haas (but can anyone really take him on?). In addition to Wagner, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman capped off his Michigan career by scoring his 1,000th point in his senior year. The floor general is averaging 12.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 3.4 APG while also being one of the best defenders in all of college basketball. Charles Matthews, a transfer from Kentucky, has also made his presence known by shooting nearly 50% from the field on just over 10 shots per game.
Indiana Hoosiers (16-14, 9-9)
Plain and simple, the Hoosiers need to win at least three games in the upcoming Big Ten tournament to even get themselves back to the NCAA Tournament bubble. Indiana rode on the coat tails of their junior forward Juwan Morgan (16.6 ppg) and senior guard Robert Johnson (14.1 ppg) to a up-and-down finish, losing their last two crucial games to Nebraska and Ohio State. They've looked like a good team at times, but haven't been able to muster up any big wins to grab the committee's attention. With a ugly, mediocre conference record and an uninspiring non-conference mark, they'll need to make a lot of noise this week to move anyone's needle.
Indiana will play the winner of Rutgers and Minnesota on Thursday night, and if they can win that game the fun will really start. They'll need to outmatch a rested Purdue team at MSG, and even that might not be enough to move them past the rest of the bubble teams. Their semi-final contest would likely be against Ohio State, and a win there would prove that the Hoosiers are for real. My guess is that the committee would have no choice but to throw Indiana in the mix at that point. The odds seem slim, but as a very smart man once said, "So you're saying there's a chance?!"
Penn State Nittany Lions (19-12, 9-9)
Speaking of losing crucial games at the end of the season, Penn State told Indiana to hold its beer and watch this. After winning six games in a seven-game stretch, including two wins against Ohio State and the lone loss against Michigan State, the Nittany Lions lost their last three games against Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska to fall short of that magical 20-win mark. They enter the Big Ten tournament with a trio of sophomore players (Tony Carr, Lamar Stevens, and Mike watkins) averaging over 12 points-per-game and a junior and senior (Josh Reaves and Shep Garner) averaging 10.3 ppg each. Such a wide-spread source of scoring allows Penn State to stun more talented opponents at times, but they will need a little more magic if they want to impress Joe Lunardi and the committee before Selection Sunday.
The Nittany Lions, who are currently just outside of Lunardi's "Last Four Out" grouping, draw a sneaky tough Northwestern team on Thursday evening to open their Big Ten Tournament play, and if they can walk away with a win they'll get their arch nemesis Ohio State once more. Something tells me the Buckeyes don't want to lose to this team three times in one year. Unfortunately for Penn State, I think they ultimately will need that win to prove they're worthy of an automatic bid, and I just don't see it happening. For the record I said the same thing the last two times these teams met, however, so I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Maryland Terrapins (19-12, 8-10)
Predicted to finish fifth in the conference by the preseason media, Maryland recorded its first sub-.500 conference record since joining the Big Ten. Finishing just 4-9 away from home, Mark Turgeon & Co. will find themselves on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday barring being crowned conference tournament champions. The loss of sophomore forward and preseason all Big Ten selection Justin Jackson early in the season made things a little more difficult, but there's little doubt that the Terrapins underachieved in 2017-'18.
The Terps head into MSG with a 4-6 record over the last ten, including a 24-point shellacking at the hands of Michigan in Sunday's regular season finale in College Park. Michigan loss aside, the average margin of loss for Maryland down the stretch was just five points, including close home losses to Michigan State and Purdue. Wins include home wins over Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Rutgers, as well as the team's just second road conference at Northwestern
The Terrapins are led by a trio of players who are the engine that makes this motor run and will be a pivotal part of any postseason magic that comes along the way. Anthony Cowan, the sophomore point guard, is the Terps leader in points (15.7), assists (5.2), steals (1.5), free throw percentage (85%), and minutes played (37.0). With a knack for getting to the line, Cowan has been the team's go-to option down when the game is on the line. Despite playing incredibly heavy minutes in conference, he's held up well and has been the barometer for consistency. If that consistency were to drop off, it will be a very early exit for Maryland in New York.
If anybody were to get hot and propel Maryland to multiple postseason wins, look no further than Kevin Huerter. Ranked 7th in the conference in 3-point field goals made with 72, the 6-foot-7 sophomore guard is the team's only player to score double digit points in all eighteen Big Ten games. Though he averaged almost a full 1.5 points below his 14.6 per game average over the final four games of the regular season, Huerter is the one that could determine how early/late the (non-NIT) season will end. Bruno Fernando, the Angolan big man who was the benefactor of early-season injuries, finished his first regular season averaging 10.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Known for his high energy and poster dunks, Fernando has been the only semblance of production in the Maryland frontcourt. Offensive consistency has been an issue for the freshman, who had as many 2-point conference games as he did 20+ (3), but he's going to have his hands full of day one in New York with Wisconsin's Ethan Happ.
The Rest of the Field
Everyone else in the tournament would surely have to make a miraculous run and take home the Big Ten Tournament crown along with an automatic bid to keep their season alive. That list consists of Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Rutgers. It has been done before, but considering the strength of the conference leaders, I wouldn't bet on a cinderella story in New York City this weekend.
