There are only five weeks to the season left. Favorites are winning at a record pace and crushing Vegas. That means underdogs are due for a monster showing one of these weeks. Let's jump right into it.

 

Nuggets from Week 12

• The Cowboys have scored two touchdowns in their past three games.
• Kirk Cousins continued his torrid play in primetime this season against the Giants Thursday night throwing for 242 yards, two touchdowns, an interception that wasn't his fault and a 61% completion percentage.
• Both the Cowboys and Redskins will play three games in 11 days. So much for player safety.
• Thanks to the Daily News for this stat, the Giants haven’t scored 30 points since Ben McAdoo became head coach. Read that again. Wow. Eli Manning is a shell of his former self. He was 13-27 for 113 yards and 4.18 yards per attempt in D.C. Thursday night. But, that doesn't mean he deserves to be benched at this point in the season. Mike Francesca sums it up perfectly.
• Not only do the Browns have the worst roster in football, but they also can't find a kicker. The least you can do with an awful roster is have a kicker that can bail you out. They are tied for last in team field goal percentage. According to Andrew Catalon of CBS, Zane Gonzalez, has missed five missed field goals all wide left. Seriously man?
• The Falcons are known to blow games, and almost did it yet again coughing up a 21-point lead. The Bucs had a legitimate chance to tie things up late in the 4th, but couldn't convert on fourth down deep in Falcons territory. Atlanta better start learning to put teams away and not take their foot off the gas. 28-3.
• The Bengals continue to own the state of Ohio. They have beat the Browns in seven straight. All by double digits.
• The Titans are so so bad. Only two of their seven wins have come by double digits. And their cake of a schedule can allow them to go 10-4. Next three; vs. Texans, @ Arizona, @ San Fran.
• The Broncos may be able to draft a quarterback with their own pick if they keep losing.
• The Chiefs were the first-half darlings. Now they’re looking like a bottom feeder. Where are all those people yapping away about Alex Smith being MVP and the Chiefs being locked into the AFC Championship game now?
• The Pats and Eagles continue to roll dominating all facets of the game.
• Here's a hot take on two running backs; Melvin Gordon and Jonathan Stewart are not good. I've watched them plod their way all season. Gordon is averaging 3.7 yards per attempt while Stewart is averaging a career worst 3.2 yards per attempt.
• The Saints will make the playoffs, but will probably not get their coveted bye and home-field advantage. They lost to the Vikings and Rams so those two teams own the tiebreaker over them. New Orleans is a team that needs at least one home playoff games to make the Super Bowl.
• If you've read my column previously, you know my disdain for the Ravens. Watching them begrudgingly Monday night, Fallin' Joe Flacco was horrific once again. It was his fifth game this season with under 5 yards per attempt. Since the season after the Ravens won the Super Bowl (2012-13), Fallin' Flacco had just six of those instances. I also saw this mind boggling stat from Scott Kacsmar, Fallin' Joe Flacco is the "first QB in NFL history with 10 games in the regular season with less than 4.5 YPA on 30+ attempts."

 

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Rant of the Week

Kyle Shanahan, how can you not start Jimmy Garoppolo? Your team was 1-9 heading into Sunday's game. What is there to lose!?! Your season is over, you mine as well play your backups to find out what you have for the future. But you better play Jimmy G. You just gave up a second round pick for inarguably the most coveted quarterback the past two years and heir apparent to the greatest quarterback ever, Tom Brady. But of course, Shanahan's offense is so intricate that Garoppolo can't comprehend the complexity of it. Is this offense like studying for the MCAT's or LSAT's? How hard can it be?

I've watched a lot of 49ers this year and C.J. Beathard isn't any good. He's a career clipboard guy. If he's your backup, that's fine. But not a starter. It took a Beathard injury for Garoppolo to go a perfect 2 for 2 for 18 yards and a touchdown pass on the game's final play. Not like it mattered, but it got the crowd excited and gave the a 1-10 team hope. At least Kyle is starting Garoppolo this week. It's about time you find out if he's the answer at quarterback in a star-studded quarterback draft class.

 

Survivor League Strategy

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools, it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week, if they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved.

Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week. There will be a game or two a week where the line makes NO SENSE which means Vegas is giving you an inside scoop and they're mostly always right.

The biggest favorites in Week 13 per sportsbook (home team in caps):

• CHARGERS -14 vs. Browns
• JAGUARS -9.5 vs. Colts
• Patriots -9 @ BILLS
• RAIDERS -7.5 vs. Giants
• Rams -7 @ CARDINALS
• TITANS -7 vs. Texans

The NFL gave us FOUR late games. Why are there nine early games? Why not make it eight early games and five late ones? There's not one east coast game that's a 4 p.m. game when there plenty of options like the Chiefs at the Jets could be Colts at the Jaguars, the Pats at the Bills, or even the Lions at the Ravens. Maybe this is another reason why ratings are down. The NFL doesn't seem to know how to schedule their games in a timely manner. It's so so so easy.

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 13

Chiefs -3.5 @ JETS

This will be the second time in three weeks the Chiefs travel to MetLife Stadium. Both of these teams come in reeling. The Chiefs started 5-0 and have lost five of their last six. The Jets have lost four of their last five. It looks like the Jets are toast and will lose all, or all but one, of their remaining games. The Chiefs have been dreadful of late, but in the NFL, teams usually turn it around eventually. Devin Funchess seemed to be WIDE open all game Sunday against the Jets, only Cam Newton couldn't connect with him all that much. I'm not sure how the Jets will cover speedster Tyreek Hill, but they will be in trouble.

RAIDERS -7 vs. Giants

Now that Ben McAdoo made the boneheaded decision to bench Manning, the Giants have ZERO chance to win. I thought with Manning, they'd have a very slim chance, but their may be a mutiny in the Giants locker room after this dumb decision. Manning has never criticized McAdoo all year, took all the heat, and answered every question from the media during this terrible year. Simply, he's been a mensch. How in the world will Geno Smith go into Oakland and contend with the Raiders? He can't. I really hope the Raiders win 49-0 and they fire McAdoo on the tarmac after what he did.

Steelers -5.5 @ BENGALS

This game is on Monday night. Pittsburgh owns Cincinnati on the road since 2000. Including the playoffs, the Steelers are 16-3 in Cincy and winners of the last four. Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell love to play in the spotlight. They may not cover, but they will win.

Patriots -9 @ BILLS

Since the start of the century, the Pats are 15-2 over the Bills with only five of those wins coming by single digits. The Bills are off an enormous upset win, but I don't see them losing to the Pats who are cruising. Expect a big game from Rob Gronkowski, who's from Buffalo. In 11 career games there, he's scored a touchdown in nine, averaging 74 yards per game on five receptions. There's a daily fantasy tidbit.

BEARS -3 vs. 49ers - Jimmy G is starting. I love the Niners now. I think he is an above average quarterback. It looks like John Fox has mailed it in after losing ttheir last four. How in the world are the Niners underdogs here though? I believe most people would take Garoppolo over Mitchell Trubisky any day off the week. This line should be pick 'em so we are breaking the rule of never picking underdogs.

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

JAGUARS -9.5 vs. Colts

I'm not sure how the Jaguars can lay double-digits with Blake Bortles as their quarterback. Bortles just threw for 4.84 yards per attempt in Arizona. That is so so bad. If the Colts can somehow get 20 points on this spectacular defense, it's going to be a close one. T.Y. Hilton will have to play out of his mind.

CHARGERS -14 vs. Browns

The Chargers are everyone's darling right now. They are rolling and get to play the winless Browns. Hue Jackson is now 1-26 as their head coach. However, for some reason when the Chargers play the Browns they overlook them. The last three times they've played, the Browns won two and should have won three, but lost on a last second field goal. There are no stats back me up on this one, but the Browns literally have nothing to lose. If the Chargers come into this one tight and look ahead to the Skins next week, this game can be closer than you'd expect. It's also like the Chargers to lose a game they shouldn't lose.

Rams -7 @ CARDINALS

The Cards are in a perfect spot. They get the Rams who are on cloud nine after their massive win against the Saints. The Cardinals love to play spoiler. They have beaten the Seahawks in recent years when they had no business winning. This feels like a three or four point game.

• COWBOYS pick' em vs. Redskins- As Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal would say, this one is a loser leaves town match. Both teams are 5-6 and need to win out to have a chance to make the playoffs. A 9-7 team will not make the playoffs in the NFC. You have to go 10-6. It doesn't help that both of these teams will be playing their third game in 12 days. And tickets for this game are available for five dollars.
• FALCONS -3 vs. Vikings- This game will be a shootout. Both teams are averaging 6.1 yards per play over their last three and are top-10 in 20+ yard passing plays and rushing this year. The Falcons are one, the Vikings two, in third down percentage. Furthermore, the Vikings are first in opponent third down percentage.
• PACKERS -3 vs. Bucs- The Packers need to win their last five to have a remote chance at the playoffs, and even 10-6 may not be enough. Jameis Winston may play, but he's been terrible this season.
• TITANS -7 vs Texans- Like I wrote above, only twice have the Titans won by double digits this year. The Texans defense is good and are fourth in opponent third down percentage.
• Broncos -1 @ DOLPHINS- The Broncos have lost seven in a row and find themselves as a one-point favorite in Miami. Vegas is telling us something. TAKE THE BRONCOS!
• RAVENS pick' em vs. Lions- The Lions are averaging 29 points per game over their last three. The Ravens have scored more than 30 twice all year. Their defense should keep them in this one, and has a 20-17 feel to it.
• SAINTS -4 vs. Panthers- Major ramifications for the NFC South. Cam Newton is 3-3 in New Orleans in his career, with wins in two of his last three. Newton has no fear in the Superdome. The Saints need to rebound after last week's defeat. They get the extra point because they're playing at home.
• Eagles -6 @ SEAHAWKS- This is the most points Seattle is getting in Russell Wilson's career. I'm shocked at this number. If the Eagles get off to a good start, they will roll, but if Carson Wentz gets flustered in the first quarter in one the loudest stadiums he will ever play, this will be much closer than expected.

Any questions? Feel free to ask me on Twitter @Seth_Fink.

Best of luck!

 

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