This week, RotoBaller introduced the new Premium Power Surgers/Fallers Tool, which provides premium subscribers with a method to identify future fantasy value in terms of power production. The tool uses advanced hitter stats such as Pull%, FB%, and Hard Contact% to build a power rating that we can use to compare the previous 14-day performance against year-to-date numbers.

In this weekly article, we are going to examine three players from these tables in the pursuit of buy/sell opportunities and something that every fantasy owner desires - more taters!

Editor's Note: RotoBaller offers the best Premium MLB Subscription - only $1.99 per week. All the tools you need to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Under-the-Radar Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, plus daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

Home Run Surgers

Mike Napoli - Power Average Difference +7%

Following a miserable 2015 campaign, many fantasy owners and analysts concluded that Mike Napoli was an aging former slugger with diminished bat speed. However, 2016 has been a different story. Since the beginning of May, the veteran 1B/OF has been a major contributor for the division-leading Cleveland Indians. Napoli has 14 home runs for the year, but hit only four in the month of April. He has five HR in the last two weeks alone, and his ownership numbers have seen a stark increase in all formats.

He is showing signs of a sustainable power surge in all of the relevant metrics. Napoli has displayed a large increase in his Hard Contact%, from 29.7% in 2015, to 43% this year. His average batted ball distance has increased by over six feet from last year, and his Pull% is higher than any year since 2012. His 26% HR/FB is certainly not sustainable, but Napoli has an excellent 19.5% HR/FB for his career, so this is not a new level for him.

His K% has jumped to a dangerous 36.4%, and his BB% has dropped below 10%, so owners should not expect his on-base numbers of a few years ago. Napoli has hit over 20 HR in a season six times (and 30 once), so he has a long track record as a power hitter. Considering the failure of many high-profile first basemen to live up to expectations this season, Napoli should be scooped up in mixed leagues at this point.

Kole Calhoun - Power Average Difference +8.3%

Unlike Napoli, Angels outfielder Kole Calhoun does not have an extensive history as a power hitter. He did hit a career high 26 HR in 686 plate appearances in 2015, but provided very little in batting average and OBP. Calhoun started off slow, and has seven dongs in 257 PA so far this season. He popped four in the last 14 days.

What makes Calhoun an interesting fantasy player is the transformation his game has undergone since moving to the second spot in the Angels order. Since May 8, Calhoun has hit mostly second (and occasionally first) in the order, and has a .302/.378/.491 slash line with five HR and 26 RBI in that time span. Although his .160 ISO is not impressive by itself, his improvement in batted ball metrics over 2015 is remarkable. His LD% is 27.1%, up five percentage points from last year. His FB% has increased to 38.1%, but he also has a 10% HR/FB, which is three percentage points below his career average. A correction in that category could be imminent.

The most impressive of the improvements that Calhoun has made is his slash in K%, from 24% in 2015 to 18% this year. Calhoun can still reach 25 HR, but this year he is a more complete hitter. Owners will not find Calhoun on the waiver wire this year, so interested parties should buy now, before the homer binge drives his value up too much.

Home Run Fallers

Michael Conforto - Power Average Difference -9.3%

Mets outfielder Michael Conforto burst onto the scene with the pennant-winning Mets last year by hitting nine home runs in 194 plate appearances. He has matched that home run production this year in a similar number of at bats. Of course, most of that damage was done in April, and his production has completely ceased in the last two weeks. Conforto had a .591 OPS in May and just .429 in June so far.

Two flaws in his game have been exploited this year. His K% has increased to 24.5%, while his BB% is still at 9%. Also, his 13% Infield Flyball% is worse than average. Those two negative outcomes leave Conforto very little margin for error. Since May 1, his LD% has dropped to 19%, and 64.6% of his contact has been soft or medium. He has managed five homers since then but has just 18 hits against 37 strikeouts in 126 at bats.

It is possible that Conforto is experiencing a good ol' fashioned slump. He would not be the first player to take a mental kick to the groin from the game of baseball. He was hitless in one pinch-hit appearance on Friday, and then he went 0-4 on Saturday with two more strikeouts. The Mets could still send him to the minors, and his ownership has plummeted across all formats. He has 25 HR potential but cannot hit lefties and strikes out too much. As long as the expectations are realistic, Conforto could be a fantasy asset when he gets his act together. He is a safe drop in all standard formats for now.

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