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MLB Hitter Cheat Sheet (5/2/16): Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Picks

You don't need an expert to tell you to play Jose Bautista tonight against A.J. Griffin in the game with the highest implied team total. It is much more difficult, however, to sift through the cheap DFS options for the right value plays that can help you fit in the studs you want and put your lineup over the top.

That is the purpose of this article -- to provide you with the best value hitters available each day.

Today I'll be bringing you seven value hitters for MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball on FanDuel and DraftKings for May 2nd, 2016. Let's get started!

 

DFS Hitters - Lineup Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings

1. Lucas Duda, 1B, New York Mets Notebook

FanDuel Price: $3,400; DraftKings Price: $4,000

Duda's opponent on the mound, Mike Foltynewicz, posted a 4.30 SIERA last season and struggles to retire left-handed hitters.

88 of Duda's 105 career home runs have come against right-handers, which is no surprise when you look at the underlying numbers. Duda has elevated his career hard-hit rate against righties to 38.8 percent and his fly-ball rate to 48 percent. He's also significantly lowered his strikeout rate and raised his walk rate against righties.

He is an excellent way to punt first base, while also avoiding the high ownership that will accompany some of the more expensive options.

 

2. Mitch Moreland, 1B/OF, Texas Rangers

FanDuel Price: $3,300, DraftKings Price: $3,500

I definitely prefer Moreland on FanDuel, where he is outfield eligible, but he'll likely have much lower ownership on DraftKings.

The Rangers draw one of the best matchups on the board, as their opponent is R.A. Dickey, who posted a 4.76 SIERA.

Moreland crushed right-handed pitching last season, elevating his slugging percentage from .387 against lefties to .528 against righties, his ISO from .142 to .234, his wOBA from .297 to .372, his hard-hit rate from 34.5 percent to 36.7 percent, and his fly-ball rate from 31.9 percent to 35.9 percent. He also cut down on his strikeout rate from 24 percent to 20.7 percent.

The Rangers have one of the highest implied team totals on the board today, and Moreland should be a big part of that. He makes for an excellent tournament option tonight, especially if you're paying up at pitcher or for the elite outfielders.

 

3. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers

FanDuel Price: $3,200, DraftKings Price: $2,900

Mazara should also feast on Dickey in this matchup, and he will get to face him often, hitting second.

In his short career, Mazara has hit much better against right-handers, elevating his hard-hit rate from 12.5 percent to 27 percent. Obviously, those numbers came in a small sample size, but they aren't too surprising considering he is a lefty.

He also has a 6.5 percent strikeout rate and a 13 percent walk rate against righties, as opposed to a 35.7 percent strikeout rate and 3.6 percent walk rate against lefties. Again, these are obviously small sample sizes. The extremity of the splits are certainly telling that he hits righties quite a bit better at this point in his career.

 

4. Matt Duffy, 3B, San Francisco Giants

FanDuel Price: $2,700, DraftKings Price: $4,000

Duffy and the Giants are one of the sneakiest stacks of the day in a matchup with lefty Brandon Finnegan​. Finnegan has solid stuff, but struggles with control sometimes, which isn't good news against a patient Giants lineup. 

Finnegan has allowed a higher hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate to right-handed batters, and Duffy has posted higher marks in both categories against lefties. He has also struck out less often and walked more against lefties.

This game is also being played at Great American Ballpark, which has the 13th-highest Park Factor over the past three years, as well as the fifth-highest HR-Park Factor. Duffy should be able to be productive hitting out of the two-hole against Finnegan tonight.

 

5. Matt Adams, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

FanDuel Price: $2,300, DraftKings Price: $3,000

Be sure to check that Adams is in the lineup, but after sitting out Sunday's contest, it's likely that Adams gets the start tonight.

Adams has been getting more playing time recently, and has played well -- hitting safely in his last three games, including a two-for-four game with a homer and three RBI against Washington on Friday.

The Cardinals are facing right-hander Jeremy Hellickson​, who posted a 4.14 SIERA last season and struggled against left-handed batters.

Adams is about as extreme of a platoon hitter as there is -- hitting much better against right-handed pitching. If he is in the starting lineup tonight, he'll likely hit in the middle of the order and be an excellent value at near-minimum price.

 

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  • DFS lineup picks and cheat sheets for FanDuel and DraftKings - seven days a week
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