RADIO
While I like the idea for this series, it has become a trend to blame fellow RotoBaller Kyle Bishop for making us do it. So thanks a bunch, Kyle, for making me do something I wanted to do anyway. Usually, I identify whether specific baseball players are champs or chumps. This time, we'll find out which one I am. Shall we get started?
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Bold Predictions for 2016
1. Yasiel Puig fails to record 400 PAs.
In theory I could win this one due to an injury or Puig's domestic abuse thing, but I'm not counting on either. Instead, I'm banking on the Dodgers finally realizing that they have better options, relegating Puig to a fourth outfielder role. Puig's triple slash line of .255/.322/.436 with 11 HR stunk last year despite a normal BABIP of .296. Puig's past campaigns crushed that BABIP (.350 career), but his below average career LD% of 16.6% and lack of Dee Gordon-type speed suggest that there is no reason to expect such BABIPs moving forward. Scouts claim that Puig has power, but his HR/FB has never been special and he has never eclipsed the 40% FB% power hitters strive for. His plate discipline also regressed last year, as he chased more pitches (30.2% in 2014 to 34.5% last year) and whiffed more often (11.9% SwStr% to 13.9% last year). Meanwhile, the Dodgers can field a perfectly capable outfield of Andre Ethier/ Joc Pederson/ Scott Van Slyke without Puig. Carl Crawford's bloated salary may earn him playing time, and even Trayce Thompson is of interest after last year's .295/.363/.533 line in 135 PAs. No way I'm paying Puig's current price for a bench guy.
2. Steven Wright will matter in fantasy leagues.
Currently slotted in as Boston's sixth starter and long reliever, I think Wright finishes the year with double digit Ws and league average ratios. That's not a great fantasy arm, but it is streamable in most leagues and rosterable in deeper formats. To do it, he'll first need opportunity. While David Price should be fine, I have zero confidence in the health and/or effectiveness of the four guys slotted after him: Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelley and Eduardo Rodriguez. Wright is out of options, so he'll be the most convenient option as soon as someone goes down. Predicting a knuckleballer's performance with advanced metrics doesn't really work, but he does have the BABIP suppression thing in his favor (.252 last year). His 16.8% K% last year was disappointing, but his 25.6% rate in 2014 and his minor league history suggest he has some upside there. Who knows, maybe he'll even go 2012 RA Dickey on us.
3. Jose Peraza will get 500 MLB plate appearances and steal 40 bags.
Peraza is one of those guys that projects to be a better fantasy player than real one, as his SBs are so valuable in our game. Nevertheless, the Reds clearly traded for him with the intent to use him in reality. Sadly, Brandon Phillips vetoed the deal that would have let them do so. Phillips is old, though, and the Reds may bench him until he accepts a trade elsewhere if they have to. Peraza is also getting looks in the outfield, so he'll find his time. Unlike many other players with a speed first profile, Peraza has actually hit minor league pitching. His roughly .290 average at Triple-A is supported by the high BABIPs one would expect from a speed burner like Peraza. He also never strikes out, sporting a single digit K% at Triple-A last year. Even if he can't hit MLB pitching, the Reds have allowed Billy Hamilton to hit atop the order and run with reckless abandon without hitting the broad side of a barn. At worst, Peraza does the same thing with MI eligibility. Sounds like a sleeper to me.
4. Kevin Plawecki will record more plate appearances as a catcher than teammate Travis d'Arnaud.
I predicted this in a preseason piece last year, suggesting that Plawecki's superior glove and d'Arnaud's middling offense would allow the former to overtake the latter on New York's depth chart. That didn't happen, but thanks to injury I was almost right anyway: Plawecki finished with 258 PAs to TDA's 268. This year, I'm adding "as a C" because both catchers are working out at the corner infield spots in an effort to get both into the lineup. This makes the most sense for d'Arnaud, as he has by far the better stick of the two and still can't field. Between filling in for David Wright at third and spelling first baseman Lucas Duda against LHP, d'Arnaud could gain multi position eligibility while approaching Buster Posey levels of playing time. Plawecki probably won't hit enough to matter to us even with more playing time, but d'Arnaud could be a tremendous fantasy asset until he loses his catcher eligibility in a few years.
5. Jarrod Dyson will be a top-15 fantasy outfielder in 5x5.
Yes, I'm aware of Dyson's oblique strain, and I even edited this prediction because of it - it was originally top 10. He's only slated to miss the very beginning of the year, and there is almost no chance Paulo Orlando and company usurp him from Kansas City's plans. In limited playing time, Dyson has proven to be a tremendously adept base thief, stealing 26 bags in 29 2015 attempts, 36 in 43 2014 attempts, and 34 in 40 2013 attempts. As of now, he is slated to double his playing time in 2016 in the right side of a platoon with Orlando, and he may vulture a few more chances than that as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. Conservatively, 50 SBs are very possible. He can also hit a little, sporting a .266 career batting average against the righties he'll be expected to face. Dyson got his LD% to an acceptable level last year (23.4%) after an embarrassing 13.8% figure in 2014. His 6.7% SwStr% and 24.7% O-Swing% last season supported a 16.4% K% that ensures Dyson can at least try to steal first. Even his 6.2% BB% wasn't bad for a bat with no power at all. While he may not profile as an ideal leadoff man, incumbent Alcides Escobar doesn't either, potentially opening the door to a favorable lineup slot. Fellow speed merchant Billy Hamilton would kill for Dyson's career 58.9% GB%. Dyson will out Billy Hamilton Billy Hamilton in 2016, single handedly winning a category with some batting average and runs upside.
6. Drew Storen will be a top-10 fantasy closer.
I don't usually write about relievers due to the limited samples associated with them, but I have a hunch about Storen this year. While his overall numbers don't look impressive (3.44 ERA and 29 saves), his FIP was a much better 2.79 in his 55 IP last year. Rather famously, Storen completely fell apart after the completely unnecessary Jonathan Papelbon acquisition last year, sporting an 1.73 ERA before it and a 6.75 mark afterwards. Lost in all of the choking discussion is that this was not the first time a successful Storen had to relinquish the role to a lesser arm, as both Rafael Soriano and Tyler Clippard previously enjoyed save opportunities at Storen's expense. With this in mind, I think Toronto will be hesitant to pull Storen again, giving him a level of job security not often found at the end of fantasy drafts. I believe he'll make the most of the opportunity. Storen changed up his pitch selection last year to feature more heaters and sliders at the expense of sinkers and changeups. Both the sinker and change have very high triple slash lines against, while the former offerings are Storen's best K pitches, offering chase rates of 11.9% and 14% respectively. Storen also gained fastball velocity for the first time in four years (93.4 to 94.1) and suffered an unlucky 23.9% LD% against a career 18.9% figure. Closer value is mostly luck driven, and Storen is due for some good fortune.
7. Atlanta Braves pitchers will record more saves than Chicago Cubs pitchers.
I do not disagree with the common feeling that the Cubs are very good and the Braves very bad. I am disagreeing with the notion that bad teams never get save chances. Last year, the 100-62 Cardinals led all of baseball with 62 saves, but the 80-82 Rays finished second with 60. They also led the league in blown saves, which the Cards didn't have many of at all, so Tampa led MLB in save opportunities despite the losing record. The dreadful 67-95 Braves last year compiled 44 saves, placing in the top half of the 3o team league. The elite Toronto Blue Jays recorded just 34 saves, 29th of 30, despite their 93-69 record. Half of all teams recorded somewhere between 40 and 48 saves, with no discernible pattern as to who ranked where. Save opportunities clearly do not require a strong record, and Atlanta's Jason Grilli should convert most of the chances he's given. If the Cubs have a weakness it's in the pen, and their offense may bludgeon the opposition to the point that save chances are scarce. Bad teams are certainly more likely to trade their closer, but all that means is that savvy fantasy owners have two cracks at cheap saves instead of one. Don't miss out on the value here.
8. The Miami Marlins will win the NL East.
Each year, I like to adopt a sleeper team, a team that is not projected that highly but has a chance to win a bunch of games anyway. I then roster that team's pitchers and enjoy a windfall of Ws that my opponents never saw coming. It is an inexact science to be sure, but it is a useful way to feel like you're proactively considering Ws without actually judging pitchers on their past W-L records. Needless to say, my team this year is Miami. They are due for healthy seasons from Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez, and their starting lineup is the equal of anyone else's in the division. The Phillies and Braves are both dreadful, and the Mets may not score enough after Yoenis Cespedes regresses. The Nationals are weird, and I just don't trust them. Other than Fernandez, all of Miami's pitchers are cheap and I like them all as back end options for fantasy teams. Obviously this doesn't apply if your league doesn't count Ws, but if it does you could do worse than Wei-Yen Chen at the end of the draft, or even streaming Tom Koehler.
9. Stephen Strasburg will win the NL Cy Young Award.
We've all been waiting for it, but this is the year it finally happens. Strasburg's final 2015 stat line was good but not great, boasting an 11-7 record with a 3.46 ERA and 2.81 FIP. His 29.6% K% was nothing short of elite, while his 5% BB% was excellent. His overall numbers were hindered by a 12.4% HR/FB and .311 BABIP. The HR/FB was inflated by a terrible 2-seam fastball that sported a 36.4% FB% and 25% HR/FB. Strasburg cut it's usage substantially (19.8% in 2014 to 9.4% last year) in favor of a fastball that gained velocity (94.7 mph in 2014 to 95.4 last year) and induced more whiffs (6.3% SwStr% to 8.5%) while spending more time in the strike zone (56.7% to 61.3% zone%). Problem solved. The BABIP was caused by an uncharacteristically high 23.4% LD% (career 21.5%), which masked a substantial improvement in IFFB% (6.8% to 14.2%) that suggests a better than average BABIP moving forward. His change remains elite (20.9% SwStr%, 40.1% O-Swing%) and he's been experimenting with a slider that shows promise. He also gets cherry match ups with the Phillies, Braves and Mets in his division while obvious favorite Clayton Kershaw's easy marks are the still trying Padres and Coors Field-inhabiting Rockies. What's not to like?
10. Yangervis Solarte will matter in all fantasy formats.
Solarte's final 2015 line of .270/.320/.428 with 14 HR was solid if not spectacular, but there is significant room for growth. He rarely strikes out, posting a 9.8% K% and 5.7% SwStr% last season. His average was held down by a .279 BABIP, well off the league average of .300. By batted ball type, Solarte is average across the board, so the only thing stopping him from being a .290+ hitter is a low 19.3% LD%. He ran .290ish BABIPs in the minors, so there is hope that he can bring that average up yet. His power is also trending upward, as his FB% rose to 37.1% (from 35.1% in 2014) while his HR/FB increased to 8% (from 6.8%). One more little uptick and 20 bombs become a distinct possibility. San Diego usually hits him in a lineup spot conducive to counting stats, slotting him first for 179 PAs and second for 216. Some preseason projections have him third for 2016. A middle infielder (17 games at second, also qualifies at first and third) with a plus average, strong counting stats and 20 bombs available late in the draft? Sign me up!
