RADIO
If you read my column last week, you probably did pretty well on DraftKings. Scratch that, you WOULD HAVE done well if not for the debacle that canceled the entire slate and ruined the opportunity for major success.
But it's a new week and I'm confident DraftKings will get through the slate without a glitch. The UFC, however, has had glitches surrounding this event, including the cancellation of both the main and co-main events. But there's still an edge to be had, and I'm here to help you find it.
As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:
- Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – Cash Game Targets
1. Stevie Ray (11k)
Stevie Ray is the highest priced fighter on DraftKings this weekend but he's well worth it in my opinion. For only 11k, you can secure a -550 favorite, which is as safe a bet as there is on this card. For perspective, someone like Norman Parke who costs 10.8k is only a -280 favorite according to Vegas.
And Ray's matchup with Mickael Lebout is a solid one to that favors the Scot in all areas of the game. Lebout is a tough fighter and it wouldn't shock me to see Ray end up with a decision victory, but for cash games, I'll lock in his 70 point floor (with a win) and move on.
2. Scott Askham (9.7k)
For a card with no five-round main event and not a lot of finishes to target, it's difficult to find a huge edge, which means we need to look everywhere for it. Scott Askham isn't a guaranteed win by any means, in fact he's listed as a -135 favorite by Vegas, but at a price of 9.7k, thats a big value.
Askham looked pretty solid in his last fight in the UFC, and he's someone I'd probably target in this matchup anyway. He's a good striker, especially in the clinch, and his grappling game is solid enough to help him keep the fight where he wants. I'm not sure if he'll be highly owned, but he's a sharp play in a tough card.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – GPP Targets
1. Bubba Bush (10.5k)
Bubba Bush has only fought once in the UFC, and he was knocked out quickly by Kevin Casey, which I'm hoping sends people away from him Saturday. This matchup is quite different, and his opponent Garreth McLellan is a much different fighter than Casey.
McLellan is a champion from South Africa, but he was completely dominated by a smaller fighter in Bartosz Fabinski in his debut, and was taken down 10 times in the fight. I'm not confident McLellan has what it takes to be in the UFC, and I think Bush actually has the tools to compete.
It is a risk for 10.5k, but I think Bush has a good chance to finish this fight. He's probably better than McLellan everywhere and I expect him to get the fight to the ground. Whether it's an early submission or TKO, I wouldn't be shocked to see Bush on some winning lineups this weekend.
2. Darren Till (9.2k)
Darren Till is only 22 years old and has a 13-0 record, which sounds pretty good. Unfortunately, he's standing across the Octagon from a 14-0 fighter in Nicolas Dalby.
This should be a great fight and Till is definitely a prospect to watch, but he'll have his work cut out form. I expect Dalby to try and get the fight to the ground but it wouldn't be a big surprise if Till kept the fight standing. And if that happens, he should have the edge.
Both fighters have a good kicking game but Till is the better finisher and that's who I like to target for tournaments. His floor is low, but he has one of the higher ceilings on the card.
MMA DFS for DrafKings – Fighters to Avoid
1. Tom Breese (10.6k)
I'm very interested to see how this call turns out, and I'll admit that it makes me nervous. But in the end I'm sticking to my guns and here's why:
Tom Breese is a talented fighter, but he's a bit raw. He has a high ceiling in the UFC and a lot of people seem to be high on him for the future, and furthermore, most people hate his opponent Cathal Pendred. But Pendred is a very tough fighter and has way more experience than Breese.
I don't think Pendred is going to wipe the floor with Breese but I do think he'll make it a grinding fight, and I hate those for DFS. I can easily see Pendred holding Breese against the cage, or at the very least giving him a tough decision victory. Pondered is one of the most challenging fighters to finish, and from what I've seen from Breese, I'm definitely not sold on a finish. 10.6k is a lot to pay, and for the reasons I described above, I'll be avoiding Breese outside of shot or two in GPPs.
Hope you enjoy! Follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley and @DailyFanMMA
