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It's been a long and lonely two weeks without a UFC, but we're back Sunday in Saskatoon, Canada with a solid card from top to bottom, highlighted by two youngsters in Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira fighting in the main event.
As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:
- Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
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MMA DFS for DraftKings – Cash Game Targets
1. Max Holloway (10.6k)
I really love watching Max Holloway fight, he's grown so much in the UFC and he's only 23 years old. Charles Oliveira is a legit opponent, but Holloway is a solid favorite at -240 and growing.
With his high-volume striking style, Holloway is nearly a lock for 100 points if he wins, even if it's by way of decision. He's going to need to keep the fight on the feet because Oliveira has a nasty submission game, but I'm confident he can do that.
Look for Holloway to earn another victory Sunday and finish Oliveira by TKO late in the fight.
2. Misha Cirkunov (11.1k)
Another UFC newcomer is the heaviest favorite on the card, and at -500, Misha Cirkunov is worth a look in cash games and GPPs.
Cirkunov is a legit prospect and an outstanding grappler, with heavy ground and pound, and solid judo takedowns. His opponent Daniel Jolly is a newcomer, but he's simply not as good as Cirkunov, and he's only taking this fight on a week's notice.
Jolly's biggest strengths are the same strengths of Cirkunov, and I don't think his skills will be enough to earn a victory.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – GPP Targets
1. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (9.9k)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a powerful striker with KO power and he's going to look to earn a KO in this fight against Nikita Krylov. It's a close fight and that's why both fighters are relatively cheap. But they each posses some of the highest upside on the night, so if you're looking for an early finish in tournaments, this fight is the one to target.
De Lima is only a -145 favorite, but he has a finish prop of -116. On the other side, Krylov carries a finish prop of +162, which is high for an underdog set at +125.
Krylov has good striking but he's not as technical with his defense, and I think de Lima will take advantage of that. If Krylov can get the fight to the ground, it may be a different story, but I'm not sure he will be able to survive the opening onslaught of Lima.
2. Tony Sims (8.6k)
Tony Sims is fighting a notable prospect in Olivier Aubin-Mercier, but he has a real chance in this fight.
Aubin-Mercier is a great submission grappler but in order for him to shine, he needs to get the fight to the ground. If Sims can keep the fight standing, his excellent boxing and power striking should be enough to win a battle on the feet.
In his past three fights in the UFC, Aubin-Mercier has shown weakness on the feet. It's not that he's bad, but he's very beatable and he's still young. Even against a lower-tier fighter like David Michaud, Aubin-Mercier was rocked, and Sims carries 10x the power of Michaud.
I think Sims can do enough to keep the fight standing and defend himself well enough on the ground to earn a win. It's a tough fight for him, but he looked great in his UFC debut with a KO against Steve Montgomery, and I expect him to make a good showing Sunday.
MMA DFS – Fighters to Avoid
1. Chad Laprise (10.7k)
It's not that I don't like Chad Laprise, I think he'll probably get a win, but I'm concerned about how many points he'll come out with.
The main reason is that he's fighting Francisco Trinaldo, a Brazilian grinder whose going to limit the upside of Laprise. And Laprise is moderately expensive at 10.7k, so if I'm spending up that much, I'm going to look toward fighters who I think can earn a finish.
Trinaldo is super tough, and he'll want to hold Laprise against the cage and look for a takedown. Even if Laprise can keep the fight standing, I think Trinaldo's activity will stunt his upside.
Follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley
