RADIO
In any 2015 baseball broadcast or highlight package, you are bound to hear terms such as "exit velocity", "Stat-Cast", and "Route Efficiency". Print sources are getting in on the game as well, with Fangraphs introducing "Hard%", and by extension Soft% and Med%, to act as a proxy for exit velocity. Many people have caught a bad case of Shiny New Object Syndrome, citing these stats as if they mean something for fantasy purposes, including me.
I have since decided, however, that exit velocity is almost worthless. We don't need a new stat that tells us Giancarlo Stanton is good - everyone already believed that. Meanwhile, the offensive juggernauts that are currently tied for second place among teams in Hard% are the Seattle Mariners and New York Mets. Neither team has more than one real power bat, and the Mets' number has actually gone down as a result of their recent improved play. Meanwhile the Toronto offense, that does scare everyone, is middle of the pack in the statistic.
All of this is a long way of saying that I will not allude to these stats going forward. Barring some major advancement, BABIP, GB/FB ratio and HR/FB are all much more useful for fantasy purposes. With that in mind, two superstar third basemen and a much hyped pitcher are on this week's docket. Lets begin.
Evan Longoria (3B, TB)
Once a superstar, Longoria has disappointed fantasy owners betting on a rebound with a .278/.346/.436 triple slash line and 13 HR. He is walking at a reasonable rate (8.8%), but it is short of his career 10.3% rate. He is striking out at a 19.3% clip, around his career average. Has Longoria been unlucky this season, or is he no longer the bat he once was.
He is no longer the bat he once was, and has in fact been lucky to come as close as he has to his previous production. His current .323 BABIP is far higher than his career average, fueled by both an elevated line drive percentage (23.5%) and high BABIP on groundballs (.252 vs. .229 career). Both of these numbers figure to regress going forward, sending Longoria's average to the decent .260 level instead of a plus .280.
In terms of power, Longoria has a slightly below average 9.8% HR/FB after posting a number slightly higher last season. This continues a trend of declining HR/FB rates since he posted a figure of 19.5% in 2012. The biggest drop came between 2013 and 2014, when it fell from 15.7% to 10.8%. His flyball rate remains solid at 40.9%, but his career mark is 42.4%.
Longoria's better than average K rate is also not supported by his 10.4% SwStr%, around 1% higher than the league average. He has posted league average chase rates two years in a row now, including this season's 30.8% figure. That might not seem bad, but his career 27.4% was a major plus in his prime. Again, the decline manifested itself between 2013 and 2014, which saw a 25% O-Swing% transform overnight into a 31.6% figure. This loss of plate discipline corresponds with a jump in overall Swing% (42% to 48.7%) and Longoria's declining power, perhaps indicating that a failed change of approach has become a bad habit he simply cannot shake. Until this corrects (if it ever does), the elite Longo is gone.
Outside of a 15 SB outburst in 2010, speed was never a major component of Longoria's game - owners betting on that were simply being silly. However, a once elite slugger is now just a league average one, though his fantasy value is higher due to the RBI and R opportunities his name recognition gets him in the middle of Tampa's lineup. No elite rebound is forthcoming, though daily leaguers should note that he continues to crush LHP (.330/.419/.511) and hits well at home (.308/.378/.485). Otherwise, his prospects aren't great.
Verdict: Chump
Carlos Carrasco (SP, CLE)
An extremely popular sleeper after a strong second half in 2014, he turned into the guy that you had to overdraft to roster at all because everyone was in on him. His fantasy stats have not justified the inflated price tag at 11-8 and 3.68 ERA, but the SABR stats still adore him with a 51.1% groundball rate and 2.73 xFIP. Despite this, traditional luck stats seem neutral. A 71.3% strand rate is essentially league average, while his .300 BABIP against might be a blessing considering Cleveland's defense. He even has a winning record on a team that has fallen well short of expectations. What's the problem?
As is so often the case with pitchers advanced metrics like and traditional ones don't, his HR/FB of 12.6% has ruined his season despite strong groundball tendencies. Three different pitches have HR/FB rates of at least 10%, so it is not a pitch selection issue. His 9.67 K/9 and 1.75 BB/9 are the stuff fantasy dreams are made out of, and they are supported by a strong 13.1% overall SwStr%.
His fastball has lost a tick compared to last season, averaging 94.4 mph instead of 95.2. While that should still be more than enough, batters have connected for a .281/.318/.479 triple slash line against it. The pitch's BAA was .259 last year, so the lost velocity seems to be having an impact. The offering is also a strike an extremely predictable 58.8% of the time, allowing a line drive percentage of 30.6% as a result. Its usage is down (45.3% to 34%) in favor of a 2-seamer that has the opposite problem. Despite existing to set up other pitches, it is a strike just 48.1% of the time and still manages to get hammered at a .283/.358/.417 clip. Neither gets impressive whiffs or chase rates, while the 2-seamer at least generates groundballs (64.2%).
Carrasco's happy place is his other pitches, and they may be strong enough to justify a double digit strikeout rate. The change is chased out of the zone 45.2% of the time and missed 18.3%. When contact is made, it is on the ground (62%). The slider is even better at generating whiffs with an O-Swing% of 51.5% and SwStr% of 25.2%. The curve is not quite its equal at 50.5% and 23.3% respectively, but it is stronger than the slider and offers a comparable 54.5% grounder rate. Any of the three could take a league average pitcher to a plus strikeout rate, and Carrasco has his choice of all of them.
He does have a rather stark home/away split (5 ERA at home, 2.49 on the road), but that is probably just noise. Buy Carrasco, and hope that bombs continue to dog him this year. If he could ever become a post hype guy, he could easily be the steal of the 2016 draft.
Verdict: Champ
Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY)
If baseball was a comic book series, A-Rod would be at least a recurring villain. Superpowers may be the only way to explain his .273/.380/.517 triple slash line with 24 HR at age 40 with hip issues. Oh, and he sat out an entire year. The media dogs him everywhere he goes. How the heck is he doing this?
Not with BABIP, as his .300 mark is essentially league average despite being south of his career .317 mark. He isn't stealing bases, so the loss of the speed he once had argues against anything higher than this. His 4.8% IFFB% is also low for a slugger, so this number could recede somewhat. Still, there is no reason to think it won't remain plus.
His plate discipline is a slight concern, as while his 13.9% walk rate is nothing short of elite his 12.6% SwStr% argues against his currently league average 21.3% K rate. His strong 27% O-Swing% is actually sobering in this regard, as it means that A-Rod is flailing at strikes rather than unhittable balls in the dirt or above the zone. This will drive his walk rate down as pitchers gain the confidence to go right after him while indicating that his physical skills today do not match his current statistics. Still, he is hitting for power, and as long as he has that both the Yankees and fantasy owners will cut him some slack.
More pressing is his 23.1% HR/FB, a number so elite it surpasses even A-Rod's Hall worthy 22% career mark. It represents the slugger's best mark since 2009, and in fact Rodriguez hasn't even sniffed 20% since then. Yankee Stadium cannot be blamed for this, as he actually has more bombs on the road (14) than at home (10). Still, 40 year olds with hip issues do not set new career highs in power, especially when trying to achieve the feat despite a disappointing 36.6% flyball rate (39.8% in 2013). It is possible that his aging body has taken to the DH role, remaining healthy enough to produce elite numbers again. Still, the fact that we are halfway through August and he has no homers in the month is troubling as a sign of the regression ahead.
A-Rod's magic carpet ride might continue for the rest of the season, but he likely will not be elite the rest of the way. The flies are down, the power is fluky, and there is too much swing and miss to his game without elite power. With only three games at third base and one at first, he will not qualify for any position in next year's fantasy drafts. That's fine with his production to date, but if it slips he'll quickly become unrosterable.
Verdict: Chump
