Predicting Every 4,000-Yard Passer for the 2026 NFL Season

August 31, 2026

Quincy breaks down which NFL quarterbacks will pass for 4,000 yards in 2026. From Joe Burrow to Tyler Shough, did your favorite quarterback make the list?

Throwing for 4,000 yards is the standard for upper-echelon quarterbacks in the NFL. Much like 1,000-yard seasons are the standard for running backs and wide receivers, 4,000-yard seasons from quarterbacks are indicative of a solid-to-great season. Players such as Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes II, and Josh Allen regularly achieve the feat. Behind them is often a rotation of players who enjoy peak seasons.

4,000-yard seasons have become more of a rarity over the last several seasons. Throughout the 2010s, it was common for 10-12 passers to reach the 4,000-yard milestone. However, just six quarterbacks have reached the mark in each of the past two seasons. With defenses focusing more on shutting down the pass, quarterbacks are not racking up massive yardage numbers despite playing 17 games.

We are currently in a golden age of quarterbacks with several up-and-coming players showcasing their talents in 2025. As we head into 2026, it feels like we could return to a season in which more than 10 players throw for 4,000 yards. Could Caleb Williams finally break the Bears' infamous streak of having no 4,000-yard passers? Will Mahomes return to his former glory? Can Matthew Stafford reach the mark again despite three seasons under 4,000 yards prior to his 2025 MVP campaign? Let's dive in and predict each 4,000-yard passer for 2026.

Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow is a near-lock to throw for 4,000 yards if he is healthy. In three healthy seasons in his career, Burrow has never thrown for less than 4,475 yards. However, he has suffered two season-ending injuries as a pro, and in 2025 he missed nine games.

The Bengals spent some money and draft capital this offseason in an attempt to get Burrow some help on defense. That could result in a more balanced offensive attack and subsequently better protection for Burrow.

Two games. 17 total passing TDs.

Joe Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson in 2024 was cinema 🎬 pic.twitter.com/Qzxa2eHcxk

— NFL (@NFL) June 7, 2025

If we assume he will be healthy, Burrow is about the surest bet on this list. With Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase running routes on the outside, it is tough not to reach this milestone. Look for a huge season from Burrow in 2025.

Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs

The best quarterback in football has now spent two straight seasons below the 4,000-yard mark. However, expect that to change in 2026. The Chiefs are going to run the ball more now that Kenneth Walker III has entered the fold, but that will almost certainly open up passing lanes downfield. Mahomes has spent the last two years without a running game, and defenses have keyed in on that deficiency.

Mahomes is also coming off a torn ACL. As such, his rushing will be compromised to some extent, at least to start the season. With that in mind, Mahomes will likely check the ball down more often, leading to a slow accumulation of yards. Additionally, wide receiver Rashee Rice is currently slated to play a full season if healthy. It cannot be overstated how much his presence will help boost Mahomes' numbers

Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers

As Justin Herbert enters his first season under offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, expectations are high for the seventh-year signal-caller. Herbert is oozing with talent. After ripping off three straight 4,000-yard seasons to begin his career, Herbert has capped out at 3,870 yards since. Whether due to his own injuries, offensive line issues, or a lack of weaponry, Herbert's incredible early-career pace has slowed.

McDaniel is an offensive magician. While this team will certainly be predicated on running the ball, Herbert could also experience a jump in efficiency. We have seen McDaniel enter the fold and work wonders for Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. Herbert is a superior talent, and the possibilities are endless.

Drake Maye - New England Patriots

Drake Maye hit the scene in a big way in 2025. Maye racked up 4,394 passing yards in a major breakout season. Some may predict a regression for Maye, but given that this was his first big season, it is difficult to know whether he could still ascend even more. It is possible that Maye is going to live in this range for several years.

One variable working against Maye is his schedule. The Patriots did not exactly run a gauntlet of good defenses in 2025. They will play a first-place schedule in 2026, which will present several challenges. However, adding A.J. Brown gives Maye a true No. 1 option. That will be a huge deal for the third-year quarterback.

Jared Goff - Detroit Lions

Jared Goff is the exact type of player who is seemingly always near the top of the league in passing yards. Goff has strung together four straight 4,000-yard seasons and has reached the mark in six of his last eight seasons in the league. What is more, Goff is used to massive yardage output. His lowest yardage total if he reaches 4,000 yards is 4,438.

Goff is racking up statistics like a mad man. At this rate, he will find himself challenging for 50,000 career passing yards within a few seasons. The Lions' system is perfect for Goff to thrive. If all his weapons are healthy in 2026, Goff will have a nice season slinging the rock.

Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott is a 4,000-yard machine when healthy. Prescott's issue is staying healthy, something he is seemingly only able to do every other year. However, since 2019, when Prescott has been on the field for at least 16 games, he has never thrown for less than 4,449 yards.

DAK PRESCOTT ARE YOU SERIOUS?!

GBvsDAL on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/mpfdL3HlKo

— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2025

Hopefully, Prescott can stay healthy in 2026 and continue reaching those heights. With a weapon stable that includes CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Prescott will have a lot of help. The Cowboys' vertical scheme also helps Prescott's case.

Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence has hit his stride in Jacksonville, and he is showing no signs of letting up. With a fantastic cast of characters around him, Lawrence should only continue to ascend. Head coach Liam Coen clearly knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks. He could be the first coach of Lawrence's to turn him into a perennial 4,000-yard passer.

Lawrence is still quite young, and he has quietly thrown for 4,000 yards in three of the past four seasons. He has also never exceeded 4,113 passing yards in a season. He could greatly surpass that number in 2026.

Sam Darnold - Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold appears to be the latest perennial 4,000-yard passer in the NFL. His rise came out of nowhere, but he has now achieved the feat in two different locations. The Seahawks are returning most of their offensive infrastructure. The biggest variable here is a change at offensive coordinator after Klint Kubiak left for the Raiders' head coaching gig.

Every Sam Darnold pass attempt from the first half

(hint: they're all completions 👀) pic.twitter.com/usKWatD8ip

— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2025

The Seahawks may also be forced to air it out more in a season where their defensive efficiency is bound to regress, even if only slightly. Additionally, there are unknowns in the backfield due to injuries and departures. It is reasonable to assume that the running game could take a step back as well. All of these factors would lead to more yards for Darnold.

Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears

Let's have some fun here and assume that Williams will finally break the Bears' infamous streak of never having experienced the joy of a 4,000-yard passer. Williams fell short by 58 yards in 2025. With some more consistency and a lack of late-game heroics, Williams could crack the barrier.

The Bears have given Williams an embarrassment of riches to throw to. At this point, it is on him to take a true leap forward. Head coach Ben Johnson will put him in the best position to succeed as well.

Tyler Shough - New Orleans Saints

Head coach Kellen Moore has a way with quarterbacks. He was responsible for Prescott's meteoric rise in Dallas, and he was in Los Angeles the last time Herbert was on pace for a 4,000-yard season. Once Shough took over the starting gig in October, he himself was on pace for 4,000 yards if extrapolated over 17 games.

Tyler Shough called his own number for the game-winning TD 🙌 @visa pic.twitter.com/3a749oxzLU

— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2025

Simply put, Moore is a master of scheme, and the Saints have accumulated a plethora of offensive weapons. This is going to be a vertically attacking team, and Shough should take a step forward as he enters Year 2. He is flying under the radar as we head into the season, but viewers should take notice.

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