6 Dark-Horse Candidates to Finish as the OF1: Potential Fantasy Baseball League-Winners

March 23, 2026

Kipp's dark-horse candidates to finish as the overall OF1 for 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. These outfielders may be fantasy baseball breakouts, league-winners.

Outfield is a position that fluctuates from being bountiful to barren in any given season. I can remember drafts where I waited until very late to draft my outfielders, and seasons where I had my whole outfield filled by round 10. This season, the outfield has some strong talent at the top, but is also littered with value throughout the draft, and even guys with enough talent to rank at the top.

My goal with this article is to pinpoint outfielders ranked 10th or lower in terms of NFBC ADP (March 1 through March 19) who have the potential to rank as the number one outfielder come season's end. These are players who have either shown the pedigree to be such a performer in the past or are a candidate to have an absolute monster breakout season.

So, let's dive into the six outfielders outside of the top 10 in terms of ADP who have a shot at finishing the season as the top guy.

Brent Rooker, Athletics

ADP - 42

We are going to start at the top with Brent Rooker, who is currently the 12th outfielder coming off the board. Rooker is one of my favorite guys on this dark horse list, and he has a legitimate shot to be the top outfielder if he can continue his upward trajectory from 2025.

Overall, in 2025, Rooker slashed .262/.335/.479, with 30 HRs, 89 RBI, 92 R, and 65 BB. Additionally, he added a whopping 40 doubles. While home runs and average dipped slightly from his 2024 season, he posted very solid metrics in 2025, which could improve in 2026.

He ranked in the 80th percentile or better in terms of xwOBA (.351), xSLG (.489), barrel rate (13.7%), and LA Sweet-Spot rate (39.7%). The barrel rate, unfortunately, translated to only 30 home runs, which seems a bit unlucky. Given that the Athletics play at Sutter Health Park, a minor-league park in Sacramento, CA, known for a higher home-run propensity, I think we see this number trend upward again in 2026.

Rooker also posted a respectable 90.7 mph average exit velocity, .261 xBA, and 73.6 mph bat speed. All of these ranked him in the 64th percentile or better.

Rooker is just one season removed from 39 HRs and over 100 RBI, so it is not unrealistic to think he does this again in 2026, and a season like that with his average back up to near .300 could put him in contention to be one of the top outfielders in fantasy baseball.

Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox

ADP - 52

Roman Anthony is a budding young star for the Boston Red Sox, who could quickly be on his way to becoming one of, if not the top outfielder in fantasy baseball. In 2025, the rookie slashed .292/.396/.463, with eight HRs, 32 RBI, 48 R, and 40 BB. Additionally, he racked up 18 doubles across his 257 at-bats.

While he did not qualify in terms of Statcast metrics in 2025 due to missing a chunk of the season with a grade-two oblique strain, he did put up solid metrics. Overall, his power metrics were off the charts. He finished the season with a 94.5 mph average exit velocity. He also posted a hard-hit rate of 60.3% and a barrel rate of 15.5%. Additionally, his xSLG of .484 and xwOBA of .372 were very strong.

He was able to do this with a superb bat speed of 75.1 mph. Another reason he looked so impressive in his rookie campaign was that he posted a 13.2% walk rate. Having patience at the plate as a rookie is not something we see every day, so this certainly helps his case in leagues where OBP is a key stat.

With a full season of at-bats in 2026, he could certainly contend for the top outfield spot in fantasy baseball. He will also contribute a handful of stolen bases, which cannot be overlooked. He was the second outfielder I selected in my high-stakes league behind Rooker, and I am expecting big things from the young star in 2026.

Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres

ADP - 69

Merrill finished the 2024 season second in Rookie of the Year voting and was primed for a big 2025 season, but the cards just did not fall right.

That being said, he did finish 2025 with a slash line of .264/.317/.457, with 16 HRs, 67 RBI, 59 R, and 33 BB across 440 at-bats. He qualified in Statcast metrics, and overall, they were pretty solid despite the injuries. He finished in the 70th percentile or better in terms of xwOBA (.347), xBA (.263), xSLG (.490), barrel rate (13%), and LA Sweet-Spot rate (42.6%).

Over a full season without injuries, these metrics could have easily translated to 30 or more home runs. After all, he did manage to hit 24 homers in his rookie campaign.

His speed was also derailed by injury, as he stole just one base in 2025 after having stolen 16 in his rookie season. His sprint speed of 28.5 ft/sec also ranked him in the 79th percentile, so we should expect to see those numbers tick back up this season.

While I am not thrilled that he is a left-handed hitter in Petco Park, he will be in the middle of a Padres lineup that ranked in the top half of baseball in terms of wRC+ a season ago, so he will definitely have plenty of opportunities to produce and climb the outfield ranks.

Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers

ADP - 73

Riley Greene is a strong candidate on this list if he can cut down on the swing and misses, which, unfortunately, have been a big part of his game. In 2025, he posted a 30.4% K rate, ranking him in the fourth percentile. While this was poor and we need to see improvement, the power metrics and counting stats were very good.

He ranked in the 80th percentile or better in terms of xSLG (.494), barrel rate (17.1%), and bat speed (75.6 mph). These translated to him racking up a career-high 36 HRs and 111 RBI. The Tigers' lineup ranked in the top half of the league in 2025 in terms of wRC+ and is bringing a majority of the lineup back, so Greene will have plenty of opportunities to produce once again.

He is well aware of the concerns about his strikeouts, and that should be a focal point for him to improve on for 2026. If he can improve in this area, he could certainly be in contention for one of the best-hitting outfielders in fantasy baseball this upcoming season.

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

ADP - 71

Byron Buxton does not need much buildup, as we all know what he is capable of when he is healthy. While health has been a big concern for Buxton over his career, we finally saw what he was capable of with a full season of at-bats in 2025.

He slashed .266/.327/.551, with 35 HRs, 83 RBI, 97 R, 41 BB, and 24 SBs. It was an incredibly strong season, and it was exactly what we should have expected in a season where he saw a career-high in plate appearances.

The metrics via Statcast were also outstanding. He ranked in the 90th percentile or better in terms of xSLG (.514), average exit velocity (92.5 mph), barrel rate (17.6%), and hard-hit rate (53.8%). Additionally, his bat speed of 75 mph ranked him in the 88th percentile, and he posted a .350 xwOBA, ranking in the 81st percentile.

If he stays healthy again in 2026, the sky is the limit for the 32-year-old outfielder.

Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels

ADP - 116

Jo Adell is my favorite player on this list and is also someone I made sure to draft in my high-stakes league. He was a top prospect that we all thought was going to toil away and never make a real impact. That is, until 2025 happened, when he slashed .236/.293/.485, with a whopping 37 HRs, 98 RBI, and 63 R.

The power metrics were also what we have been wanting to see for some time, as he ranked in the 90th percentile or better in xwOBA (.365), xSLG (.549), barrel rate (17.3%), and bat speed (77.6 mph). I think this is only the beginning for the 26-year-old and anticipate that he only gets better from here on.

He simply struggled to adjust to big league pitching in his first few seasons, but finally put it all together last season. He has a legit shot to be one of the top offensive outfielders in the game moving forward.

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