College Football Playoff Picture: CFP Predictions, Rankings, Analysis (Week 11, 2025)

Mike's 2025 College Football Playoff breakdown, rankings, and analysis for the 12-team CFP bracket. Read the 2025 College Football Playoff breakdown and preview.

We sit here on the eve of the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2025 with a little more clarity since we saw what the committee valued near the end of 2024. With all of the backlash that the committee endured for letting SMU and Indiana in last season, will we see them tighten the reins with perceived weaker teams this year?

As with the 2024 season, we enter the first rankings with four undefeated major conference teams. None are from the ACC this year. I'm curious to see what the CFP does with the ACC, which has already started to implode.

I'm also curious as to what they do with that fifth conference champion slot. Can the Mountain West overtake the ACC? It looks unlikely after Boise's loss to Fresno, but stranger things have happened.

College Football Playoff Overview

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the College Football Playoff. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. It is not mandated that all four need to be the "Power 4" conferences.

Since the Pac-12 isn't a conference again (yet), Washington State and Oregon State will be treated as independents. The top-four-ranked teams will be given a first-round "bye."

College Football Playoff statement on strength of schedule this season: pic.twitter.com/LmhjzZCGVh

— FBSchedules.com (@FBSchedules) August 20, 2025

This year, we still have seven at-large teams. The difference is that the four highest-ranked conference champions do not get an automatic bye. It's based on rankings. Reading between the lines, the SEC and Big Ten are guaranteed the first-round byes.

College Football Playoff Automatic Bids

ACC: 

With Miami, Wake, and Georgia Tech all losing last week, it makes the ACC likely a one-bid league. The crazy part is that one team is Virginia. Their loss is considered "out of conference" since they scheduled North Carolina State outside of the ACC schedule. Purely nuts!

Big 12 (14):

BYU is undefeated and gets this spot.

Big Ten (18):

I would give this to Indiana based on the win at Oregon. Ohio State doesn't have that kind of a win.

SEC:

Texas A&M is the only undefeated SEC team right now. Clarity is good. Behind the clarity is a mess of undeserving and maybe-deserving teams.

At-Large Champion:

This team most likely comes from the American Conference. Tulane's loss last week continues to poke holes in this conference. Memphis is the anointed by default right now.

College Football Playoff Nightmare Scenarios

ACC:

With Miami’s loss to SMU, looks like it is going to be Georgia Tech or UVA in the college football playoff. Hard to see ACC getting more than one team in the CFP. pic.twitter.com/6ROHUHZz9k

— Sports on TV w/ Caleb (@SportsOnTV_Hub) November 1, 2025

The nightmare for the ACC is already happening, but don't worry, it could get worse. If Virginia loses one of its last three games (Wake Forest, at Duke, Virginia Tech), it may end up helping the ACC. I'll explain later.

The ACC's nightmare was Miami losing again. Now it's Miami having an all-out collapse. Florida State, Clemson, and Miami are the big brands in this league. Two are already toast. A third is lightly singed.

The ACC's worst nightmare was becoming a one-bid league. That's where they're at now.

Big 12

The Big 12's worst nightmare would be Texas Tech losing to BYU and the conference championship game. Tech doesn't have the non-conference strength of schedule, and they played four of the five worst teams in the conference.

There is a part B to this. If BYU were to lose two or three of the last four games and Tech loses to Utah in the Big 12 Championship, the league wouldn't even get a playoff home game.

Big Ten

The Big Ten's nightmare is already here. The bottom four teams in the conference are 0-22 in conference play and 10-24 overall. The bottom of the conference is abysmal, and it will drag down the strength of the schedule if the committee follows that.

The other nightmare was not getting four teams in the CFP. That is not only possible, but likely now.

SEC: 

The SEC didn't want to be in a situation where they were waiting to see if three-loss teams could get in the CFP. That's why the SOS stipulation was added, but what the CFP says and what the CFP does aren't always unilateral.

With Tennessee already having three losses and Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri likely to incur a third, things are going to be more interesting than Greg Sankey would like.

Those pesky teams that won't join a conference:

A two-loss Notre Dame is less-than-ideal for the CFP, but if the Irish win out, that would give them wins over USC and Pitt. They can spin that in a good way.

College Football Playoff Best-Case Scenarios

ACC:

The ACC needs chaos in other conferences. Getting three teams in is only a pipe dream, but two is possible. If Virginia and Louisville both win out and Louisville wins the rematch in Charlotte, we could see two ACC teams get in.

The bad news is that if Virginia is up against two-loss Big Ten or three-loss SEC teams, they won't have a leg to stand on if they can't beat Louisville twice. A second loss by Louisville to Virginia would decimate the at-large for the Cards, especially if Miami loses again.

What the ACC would really love to happen is Virginia losing twice, therefore getting an ACC Championship of Miami and Louisville, with Miami winning. Louisville's earlier win over Miami would help the SOS and maybe put the Cardinals in as well. Louisville has a better chance as a two-loss team than Virginia does.

Big 12 (16)

The best case is BYU winning out and Texas Tech beating the Cougars in the Big 12 Championship. That would put two Big 12 teams in the CFP. Utah also winning out could give the Utes enough juice to push for an at-large, but it's unlikely because the signature out-of-conference win is UCLA.

Big Ten (18)

It almost doesn't matter what happens with Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State. All three are all but assured a spot even with a loss (or another loss, in Oregon's case).

The best thing for the Big Ten would be getting a fourth team in. Michigan, USC, Iowa, and Washington are the two-loss teams that would have a shot if they win out. The Big Ten hopes it's Michigan for the brand, and a loss by Ohio State to Michigan again would still mean a home playoff game for the Buckeyes.

USC or Washington winning out would have to include a win over Oregon. A second Oregon loss would put the Ducks in danger of falling out, especially if more than one of those teams beat Oregon.

SEC

Seeing what happened in the ACC and Big Ten, it's five teams or bust for the SEC. A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi are already in, barring epic collapses. That means the SEC is going to get behind Vandy, Texas, Missouri, or Oklahoma.

Vanderbilt is the easiest to get behind, with just Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee left on the schedule. Would the "good losses" to Alabama and Texas be enough without a good non-conference win? The SEC can't take that chance.

Texas would have to beat Georgia and A&M. They would rather not have Georgia in peril, so too bad, Texas. Missouri would have to beat A&M and Oklahoma. The SEC wouldn't mind that, as a one-loss A&M is still good.

Oklahoma is the one that the SEC would love to get behind. The Sooners own the marquee out-of-conference win of those four with a win over Michigan. Alabama could survive a second loss, which Oklahoma would have to hand them. Oklahoma winning out would likely result in five SEC playoff teams.

Group of 5/Independents

Notre Dame is likely in, even with a Miami collapse, if they win out. The real race is in the American Conference and whether it can put two teams in.

This is a place where a conference championship game is really going to hurt the American. Tulane was the team with Power 4 wins, but a loss to UTSA likely ruined the Wave. The best the Americans can hope for is Memphis winning out and mass chaos everywhere else.

North Texas might get in as an at-large, but only if they miss the AAC Championship game.

The chances of the Mountain West took a big hit when Boise lost to Fresno. Fresno lost to Kansas earlier in the season. Even if San Diego State runs the table, they can't explain away a blowout loss to Washington State.

My College Football Playoff As Of November 4

Byes: Indiana (1), Texas A&M (2), Ohio State (3), Alabama (4)

Other automatic qualifier: Memphis (22)

At-large teams: Georgia (5), Texas Tech (6), Oregon (7), Mississippi (8), BYU (9), Notre Dame (10), and Virginia (13).

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