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John's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 3 of 2025. He looks at surprising performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Quentin Johnston, J.K. Dobbins, Zach Ertz.
One of the most important parts of fantasy football is evaluating individual players' performances early in the season and determining, with the most accuracy you can, whether they're set up for year-long success or whether their big games are fluky.
NFL teams are constantly looking to develop their young players into stars while simultaneously trying to win every game they play -- and sometimes, that's a big help for veterans, even if they later fall off. We've seen many vets have a few big games to start the season and later fade into obscurity.
In 2022, Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored 18.9 PPR fantasy points per game on average in his first four games. After his Week 8 bye, he scored just 3.8 more total points. This kind of thing happens seemingly constantly. So let's dive into four Week 2 surprise players' fantasy football outlooks, and whether their production so far is fact (likely to continue) or fiction (likely fluky) for 2025!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
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- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
Week 2 stats: 11 carries for 54 yards, five receptions for 88 yards, 21.2 PPR fantasy points -- overall RB6
Stevenson was a big surprise in Week 2. The Patriots had spent a second-round pick on running back TreVeyon Henderson, who was widely lauded as an elite running back prospect after his career at Ohio State. Henderson was expected to quickly take over his backfield.
Instead, the opposite has happened over the past two weeks. Henderson actually saw a decline in playing time, registering 32 percent of the team's offensive snaps in Week 2 despite having 35 percent in Week 1. It might seem baffling on the surface that Henderson lost time to third-string back Antonio Gibson.
This TreVeyon Henderson tape is brutal. Pass pro considered huge strength coming out of college. You want to see a player of his pedigree have their usage tick upward as season goes on, but I think he’s gonna lose snaps because of this.
— John Zannis (@John_Zannis) September 15, 2025
There are two major red flags Henderson clearly shows, though. The first is his pass protection. He was regarded as an elite pass-blocking RB in college. He's been abysmal in the NFL, directly causing two sacks for his quarterback, Drake Maye, and putting together an impressive lowlight reel.
He's bad enough that it might take a lot of time to correct. In college, he was often able to just two-hand punch defenders and put them on the ground. He's tried that against NFL-caliber pass rushers, and as you can see from the above clips, failed catastrophically.
Among all running backs (44) with 15 or more touches in 2025, TreVeyon Henderson ranks:
-33rd in Missed Tackles Forced per Touch
-43rd in Yards After Contact per Touch
-44th (Last) in Yards After Contact per RushData via @FantasyPtsData
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) September 17, 2025
Henderson is just plain bad at playing through contact. This is a gripe I've had about him since his college days. He was very poor at forcing missed tackles, especially on A-gap runs. The path to him getting a workhorse role in this offense was already narrow, considering his tackle-breaking deficiencies, but it's getting even narrower.
With his pass-pro abilities erroneously being praised as world-class, he was at least expected to dominate the passing downs early on. That's not happening, and his struggles with running between the tackles aren't going anywhere. He's not had many of those runs, anyway -- that's Stevenson's role.
So Stevenson, while he had abnormally high receiving production, should maintain his role as the lead back for the Patriots for some time now. I don't see how Henderson improves something drastically that he's struggled with his entire career and is among the worst in the NFL at -- playing through contact and gaining extra yards.
Verdict: More Fact than Fiction
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Week 2 stats: Three receptions, 71 yards, one touchdown, overall WR23
Johnston was once again targeted seven times in Week 2. He turned that into three catches for 71 yards and a touchdown grab. This shouldn't be a difficult analysis, because Johnston's touchdown went for 60 yards. That means, on the rest of his receptions, he only gained 11 yards, scoring 3.1 PPR fantasy points on those plays.
Quentin Johnston has an uncanny ability to get lost in zone coverage. pic.twitter.com/0iIOxPQVcN
— Powder Blue Blood (@pwdrblueblood) September 16, 2025
You can see the play above. The coverage was absolutely busted by the defense, and Johnston was able to run his route and get wide open downfield. Last season, we saw Johnston put up big numbers in a few games due mainly to busted coverages as well.
Johnston had two touchdowns in Week 1, so he's been racking up a ton of points on scores. But it's hard to see him maintaining a weekly starting value with the role he has without having a massive end-of-season TD total. There's a ton of target competition on the Chargers, too.
Wide receivers Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen are both playing at a high level this season, and both will continue to be prominent parts of the team's passing game. Johnston's floor is likely very low. I like him much better as a best ball option than for redraft.
Verdict: More Fiction than Fact
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Denver Broncos
Week 2 stats: 14 carries, 76 yards, one rushing touchdown, one catch, nine yards, 15.5 PPR fantasy points, RB16 overall
Dobbins scored yet another rushing touchdown and handled the majority of the rushing workload for the Broncos. He's been the team's lead back through two weeks so far, with rookie RJ Harvey serving as the backup and veteran Tyler Badie as the third-string man.
But Dobbins' snap share actually declined from Week 1 to Week 2. He played 53 percent of snaps in Week 1, followed by just 45 percent in Week 2. Harvey and Badie both saw four percent increases in snaps. Harvey and Dobbins' opportunities remained mostly steady, while Badie was targeted a lot less.
Dang near perfect Outside Zone blocking up front on this 23-yard carry by JK Dobbins#BroncosCountry @MileHighReport pic.twitter.com/vRuN2l65sZ
— Ross (@Ross_MHR) September 16, 2025
Dobbins has handled pretty much all of the goal line work so far, so he has value there. He doesn't have much of a pass-catching role, but even though the team picked Harvey in the second round, it seems like Dobbins' solid role is here to stay, at least for now.
Rookies tend to start coming into their own around midseason, even when a lot of them start the year slowly. Dobbins' value, thus, is probably pretty safe for at least the next few weeks.
Verdict: More Fact than Fiction
Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders
Week 2 stats: Six receptions, 64 yards, one receiving touchdown, 18.4 PPR fantasy points, overall TE2
Ertz, at a very young 34 years old, finished as the second-best tight end of Week 2 by catching six passes for 64 yards and a touchdown. Through two weeks, he's now the overall TE3, having scored 30.0 total PPR fantasy points in his first two games of 2024.
Despite the Commanders adding wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. and retaining WR Terry McLaurin, Ertz has been tied for the second-favorite target of quarterback Jayden Daniels (knee). Ertz and McLaurin both have 13 targets so far, with Samuel having seen 18 passes come his way.
Yet Ertz bested both Samuel and McLaurin in receiving yards in Week 2. It doesn't look like his role is going anywhere, and the Commanders' passing offense appears to be heavily concentrated around these three players. With Ertz continuing to be a reliable red zone threat, he could be one of the bigger fantasy steals of this season.
Zach Ertz touchdown!
It's a one-possession game 👀
WASvsGB on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/bsB1ywqGjb— NFL (@NFL) September 12, 2025
Of course, when the touchdowns dry up, as they always inevitably do, he won't be so stellar. But he played 90 percent of his team's offensive snaps in Week 2, up from 64 percent in Week 1. The losing effort likely played a role in this, as he saw a lot more playing time in the negative, pass-heavy game script.
Ertz seems to have more upside in games against tough offenses. The Commanders face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2, who absolutely don't have that. Still, Washington has a pretty tough schedule this season, so Ertz will have the weekly upside of a top-5 TE in those contests, and is a must-start for now.
Verdict: More Fact than Fiction
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