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Zach Thompson looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 3 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.
The NFL season is off to a fantastic start after two action-packed weeks with plenty of pleasant surprises, some serious letdowns, and lots of late drama with games coming down to the wire. This week, we have 13 games as part of an epic DFS slate, which will be the largest Sunday afternoon slate for a while, with bye weeks and international matchups on the horizon. The main slate doesn't include the matchups on Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, or the Monday Night Football games, but it still has 26 of the 32 teams in the player pool for your DFS lineups. In this post, we'll dive in and get an early look at Sunday's action. Check out which teams and stacks stand out for the first NFL DFS contests of the season and where the data points us.
This post is designed to be a one-stop shop for readers as they begin their DFS research for Week 3. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early and at least start formulating a play. There is always plenty of information to sort through and break down each week!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, September 21. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but hopefully it's helpful in kickstarting your research. Since it's a new season, we're still dealing with a small sample size. As the season goes on, we'll get to know the 2025 versions of these teams better. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 3 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 3, the matchup data is from only a two-game sample size, so take that into consideration when making decisions.
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams who are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 3: Main Slate Only
- Buccaneers/Bears - 25.75
- Packers - 25.5
- Falcons/Seahawks - 24.5
- Cowboys - 24.25
- Commanders/Eagles/Chargers - 24
2025 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Colts - 31
- Cowboys - 30
- Packers - 27
- Jaguars - 26.5
- Steelers - 25.5
2025 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Rams - 14
- Falcons - 14.5
- Chargers - 15
- Packers - 15.5
- Commanders/Raiders - 16.5
The Cowboys played a high-scoring game against the Giants, and ultimately emerged on top in a 40-37 overtime thriller.
gave us an absolute thriller 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/OUT5sxU3R7
— NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025
The Bears and Cowboys clash this week in a matchup of teams giving up plenty of points in the first two weeks of the season. That profiles as one of the highest scoring games of the week, setting up both potent offenses for success and stackability.
The Buccaneers are on a short week, but they still share the top implied team total on the board for their home opener against the Jets. The Bucs won two close games on the road with late scores, and Baker Mayfield will bring them home looking to light up the scoreboard. Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving, and even Rachaad White have had their moments in the first two weeks of the season, and are plays to consider this week as well.
On the opposite extreme from a short week, the Packers haven't played since last Thursday when they rolled past the Commanders. They'll look to continue their impressive start with a big road game in Cleveland, against a Browns team that just allowed 41 points to the Ravens last week.
Week 3 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but also with some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings are based on two weeks of results, so small sample size disclaimers are in full effect.
Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses using DVOA ratings
- Dallas (10) vs. Chicago (32)
- Pittsburgh (18) vs. New England(30)
- Chicago (20) vs. Dallas (29)
- Tampa Bay (14) vs. NY Jets (28)
- New England (8) vs. Pittsburgh (27)
The Cowboys' passing game got going last week against the Giants and should be able to keep rolling against the Bears, who were torn up by Jared Goff last week. Dak Prescott has connected with both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson had more targets in Week 2 than any other tight end, setting him up for another big week if he's so involved.
The Dallas pass defense is also on this list, so Caleb Williams and the Bears should be able to find space to operate as well. Rome Odunze is coming off a huge week, and DJ Moore could be poised for a big game like Malik Nabers had last week.
Veterans Aaron Rodgers and Mayfield are also in good spots against the Patriots and Jets, respectively. Rodgers has spread the ball around, while Mayfield has been especially well-connected to rookie Egbuka, who could thrive once again if Sauce Gardner is locked in on Evans. He had a touchdown and narrowly missed on a couple of deep passes that could have given him an even better night.
3rd touchdown in 2 games for Emeka Egbuka!
TBvsHOU on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/XaloB7gM4S— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2025
Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses using DVOA ratings
- Indianapolis (18) vs. Tennessee (31)
- Cincinnati (22) vs. Minnesota (30)
- Jacksonville (4) vs. Houston (29)
- New England (16) vs. Pittsburgh (28)
- Dallas (3) vs.Chicago (26)
The 2-0 Colts are favored against the Titans and set up a smash spot for Jonathan Taylor if Indy plays from ahead.
Jonathan Taylor put in work in Week 2 😤
—165 rushing yards
—50 receiving yards
—1 TD@JayT23 | @Colts pic.twitter.com/ubkopsTDSG— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2025
The Bengals may have to go more run-heavy without Joe Burrow (toe), which could set up Chase Brown for a good game against the Vikings, who have struggled against the run this season.
For the second straight week, Javonte Williams is another running back in a great spot as the Cowboys face the Bears. He remains the lead back in Dallas, and if the points are flowing in that game, He could be lined up for another big game.
The Patriots and Jaguars are also on this list as great matchups, and since they use timeshares, there could be plenty of points to go around for veterans Rhamondre Stevenson and Travis Etienne, along with rookies TreVeyon Henderson and Bhayshul Tuten.
2025 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Chicago (Prescott), Dallas (Williams), LA Chargers (Nix), Tampa Bay (Fields or Taylor), Pittsburgh (Maye)
RB - Tampa Bay (Hall), Cincinnati (Mason), Seattle (Kamara), Chicago (Williams), NY Jets (Irving or White)
WR - Dallas (Moore or Odunze), New England (Metcalf or Austin), Chicago (Lamb or Pickens), Tennessee (Pittman), Las Vegas (Samuel)
TE - New England (Smith), Seattle (Johsnon), Carolina (Pitts Sr.), Washington (Bowers or Mayer), Arizona (Farrell or Tonges)
DEF - Minnesota (CIN), Carolina (ATL), Cleveland (GB), Tennessee (IND), Houston (JAX)
The Cowboys and Bears again star on this list of top matchups. It's also interesting that the Jets and Bucs have been two of the most generous matchups for running backs as they go head-to-head this week.
The defensive matchups are always key, and the Bengals should be in an especially good spot since the Vikings are on a short week after Monday's game and are dealing with multiple key injuries as well. The Falcons and Packers have both looked very good on defense as well, and have favorable matchups this week.
Week 3 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, this section is designed to compare salaries between the two sites in search of disparate value.
Most DFS players use similar player pools on both sites, but the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions at the end of your roster. Remember that projections vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses. It's also important to remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap while FanDuel uses $60K. These value numbers are calculated based on a comparison of the percentage of salary cap space, not just pure salary.
FanDuel Values (FD, DK)
- Ricky Pearsall ($5.6K vs. $5.5K)
- Tetairoa McMillan ($6K vs. $5.9K)
- George Pickens ($6.2K vs. $5.9K)
- Cam Skattebo ($4.7K vs. $5K)
- Hunter Henry($4.8K vs. $3.8K)
DraftKings Values (DK, FD)
- Dontayvion Wicks ($3.7K vs. $5.7K)
- Alvin Kamara ($6.3K vs. $8K)
- Tre Tucker ($3.4K vs. $5.4K)
- T.J. Hockenson ($3.8K vs. $5.8K)
- Carson Wentz ($4K vs. $6.4K)
Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Williams - Odunze ($10.9K, $13.5K)
- Herbert - Allen ($10.9K, $13.6K)
- Wentz - Jefferson ($11.5K, $15.3K)
- Jones - Pearsall ($10.5K, $12.3)
- Nix - Franklin ($9.8K, $12.4K)
Notable Rookie Salaries (DK, FD)
- Cam Ward ($4.9K, $6.4K)
- Ashton Jeanty ($6.7K, $6.8K)
- Travis Hunter ($4.9K, $5.6K)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($5.5K, $5.5K)
- Tetairoa McMillan ($5.9K, $6K)
- Matthew Golden ($5.1K, $5.7K)
- Tyler Warren ($4.4K, $5.6K)
- Bhayshul Tuten($4.9K, $5.2K)
- Harold Fannin Jr. ($3.6K, $5.2K)
- TreVeyon Henderson ($5.4K, $5.2K)
- RJ Harvey ($4.7K, $5.1K)
- Elic Ayomanor ($3.7K, $5.1K)
- Dylan Sampson ($5.2K, $5.4K)
- Quinshon Judkins ($5K, $5.6K)
- Colston Loveland ($3.2K, $4.5K)
Alright, that's it for Week 3 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful, so that you don't have to!
Good luck, and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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