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Adam Koffler's best and worst picks for rounds 1-10 of drafts. His top 2025 fantasy football sleepers, busts, targets and avoids for fantasy football drafts.
I've written many articles this offseason, but I haven't broken down an entire fantasy football draft yet. That's what I'll do in this article. I'll provide you with my best and worst draft picks in each of the first 10 rounds, and a few extra picks after round 10.
Of course, it's all subjective. These are just my opinions -- but if you've read any of my articles this summer, you'll see some of the same names here. But this time, my picks are broken down by round, based on Sleeper's average draft position (ADP).
Note that this is written based on 12-team, PPR leagues. QBs are not included, and I tried to dodge some obvious avoids (Joe Mixon, Quinshon Judkins, etc). Without further ado, here are my favorite fantasy football draft targets and avoids for each round.
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Round 1 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Nico Collins is the only receiver to finish in the top three in yards per route run each of the last two seasons, per Fantasy Points Data. He's also just one of two receivers to finish in the top five in first downs per route run (Amon-Ra St. Brown the other) during that time.
Injuries have derailed his last two seasons, but when healthy, Collins is up there with the elite wide receivers in the NFL.
He's topped 75 receiving yards in 18 of his last 26 games in which he played over 50% of the snaps. Now, in 2025, he'll get an opportunity to play for an offensive coordinator who will maximize his potential.
5. New Texans OC Nick Caley was the Rams' pass game coordinator when their play-action dropback rate jumped from 21.2% (28th) to 33.3% (3rd).
Nico Collins averaged nearly 5.00 YPRR on play-action dropbacks in 2024.
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) August 30, 2025
Worst - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
He was still a top-10 receiver in 2024, but the opportunity wasn't nearly as fruitful as it had been in years prior.
His target share (25.4% vs. 27.9%), team yards percentage (26.8% vs. 34.7%), first-read target share (31.6% vs. 34.9%), and expected fantasy points per game (14.5 vs. 17.4) all fell from 2023.
New offensive coordinator John Morton even told us point-blank that it's going to be a breakout year for teammate Jameson Williams. Oh, and not to mention, the Lions want to get Jahmyr Gibbs more targets.
Just because ARSB has "done it in the past" doesn't mean he's going to do it again in 2025.
Round 2 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Yes, it's true, he rotated in the preseason with Michael Mayer, but head coach Pete Carroll basically told us he's not going to tip his hand during the preseason.
Then he came out and said Bowers was better than any player he's ever coached.
As a rookie, with worse quarterback play and a worse offensive coordinator than he'll have in 2025, Bowers went out and did this:
Brock Bowers finished 3rd in receptions (112) and 6th in targets (153) AS A ROOKIE
He did that despite just a 70% snap share and 58% route participation for the first 1/4 of the season
And in 2025, with a QB/OC upgrade, people are like, “nah, I’m good on him in the late 2nd”
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 30, 2025
For those who don't think he can be a cheat code like "prime" Travis Kelce, Kelce didn't reach 150 targets until Year 5. Bowers did it as a rookie!
Worst - Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs is steady, but there are better second-round picks in 2025. Despite the sixth-most rushing yards last season (1,329), Jacobs finished just 12th in expected fantasy points per game (15.6), per Fantasy Points Data.
His 16 total touchdowns led to outperforming expectations, as Jacobs averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game. The Packers were also abnormally run-heavy in 2024, with nearly 51% of their offensive plays being runs. In 2022 and 2023, they ran it just 43% of the time.
If (and when) that regresses to the mean, Jacobs' usage will go down, especially considering he wasn't used a whole lot in the passing game in his first season with the Packers. Jacobs had just the 24th-highest route rate (40.5%) and just an 8.6% target share last season.
Round 3 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
From Week 9 on, Brown led all running backs with 22.4 expected fantasy points per game. Then his workhorse utilization carried over to the 2025 preseason. His offensive coordinator is saying he'll be a focal point of the offense this season.
5 observations from Day 1 of #Bengals camp.
1. The team record for scrimmage yards in a season is 1773 by James Brooks. Could Chase Brown break it? He had 1350 in ‘24.
“Chase Brown is going to be one of the focal points of our offense because he deserves to be,” said Dan Pitcher. pic.twitter.com/VLCJnIB3rA— Dan Hoard (@Dan_Hoard) July 23, 2025
People want to knock Brown for his relatively low missed tackles forced per attempt (0.11) and explosive run rate (3.3%) last season. Don't be people. Volume is king at the running back position.
Worst - Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
The vibes aren't great. Tua Tagovailoa said that his and Hill's relationship is a "work in progress." Hill has also battled an oblique injury this offseason. While he did return to practice recently, he wasn't nearly the same player in 2024 that he was in previous seasons.
Per Matt Harmon, Hill's success rate vs. man coverage fell from 73% in 2023 to just 44% in 2024. He may have hit the notorious "age cliff," and that's something we don't want to mess with in the third round of our fantasy drafts.
Sure, he's got week-winning upside, but it's time to let somebody else deal with the week-to-week headache that comes with drafting Hill in 2025.
Round 4 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk is likely out until at least Week 6, and Jauan Jennings hasn't practiced in over a month with a calf injury/ongoing contract dispute. That leaves the 49ers with a razor-thin pass-catching corps that includes Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Christian McCaffrey.
Last season, from Week 7 on (after Aiyuk tore his ACL), Kittle was third among all pass-catchers in yards per route run (3.43) and sixth in first downs per route run (0.142). Even at the ripe age of 30, it doesn't appear Kittle is slowing down any time soon.
His yards after catch (YAC) ability is special. He's one of just four players to average over 6.50 YAC/reception who had over 35% of their team's receiving yards last season. The others? Puka Nacua and Brian Thomas Jr., so yeah, draft Kittle this season.
Worst - Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
"But Adam, he's so consistent." Sure, he's got five-straight years of 1,000+ receiving yards, but McLaurin has only finished inside the top 20 wide receivers exactly once. That happened last season, when Scary Terry scored a career-high 13 touchdowns. Those 13 touchdowns came on just 117 targets. That's a touchdown every nine targets.
In 2023, McLaurin scored a touchdown every 33 targets. In 2022, it was every 24 targets. As you can see, his 13 touchdowns last season are completely unsustainable. In 2024, he ranked just 35th among wideouts in targets per game (6.7) and 28th in expected fantasy points per game (13.6).
Now, in 2025, we have to draft him as the WR20 despite contract negotiations that limited his offseason reps and despite the addition of Deebo Samuel Sr.
Round 5 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots
This guy is explosive. On his first-ever NFL touch, he housed a kick return for a touchdown. See for yourself:
THE FIRST TIME HE TOUCHED THE BALL IN THE NFL!!!!@TreVeyonH4 | @NFL
📺: WBZ pic.twitter.com/NcT2a635nx
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) August 8, 2025
Obviously, that's not the only reason we're targeting him in Round 5. It's the big-play ability he's flashed throughout training camp. And it's all culminated in the Athletic's Chad Graff saying in his latest piece that Henderson could earn over 50% of the carries right out of the gates.
Henderson's ADP has skyrocketed throughout the offseason, but for good reason. This is a guy on an ascending offense that you don't want to miss out on in 2025. Don't let Rhamondre Stevenson being listed as the "starter" in Week 1 stop you from drafting the next Gibbs.
Worst - David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
Sorry in advance to all the Montgomery stans out there, but he might just be one of the worst picks on the board at cost this season.
In 2024, he had an explosive run rate of just 2.7% compared to 10% for Gibbs. He finished as the RB16 as a result of scoring 12 rushing touchdowns on 185 carries. For reference, Saquon Barkley scored 13 rushing touchdowns on nearly double the carries (345).
In 2024, the Lions scored four offensive touchdowns per game. They were one of just seven teams to score over three offensive touchdowns per game. Despite ranking 27th among running backs in carries, Montgomery was fourth in carries inside the 10-yard line (33).
Regression is coming, and that's not great for a guy who's rarely used in the passing game. Montgomery ranked just 44th among RBs with a 27% route participation rate last season.
Round 6 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys
People are starting to come around on Pickens, and for good reason. He goes from an Arthur Smith-led Steelers team to a Cowboys team without a running game (all due respect to Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders).
Last season, the Steelers attempted just 29.4 passes per game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been in the top three in pass attempts per game the last two seasons (37+).
Pickens has elite ball skills downfield and now, finally, for the first time in his career, has a quarterback in Dak Prescott that can get him the ball where it needs to be.
ok, George 😳#CowboysCamp | @AmericanAir pic.twitter.com/CcThDeK0vG
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) August 20, 2025
Not only that, but the Cowboys figure to give up a lot of points in 2025. Last season, they allowed the second-most points per game (27.5), and they just traded away their best defensive player, Micah Parsons.
Shootouts are coming, and Pickens figures to be a massive part of the equation.
Honorable mention: Tetairoa McMillan
Worst - Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Yes, Isaiah Likely could miss the first game or two of the season, so maybe Andrews gets off to a fast start. However, don't expect that to last. In 2024, Andrews failed to eclipse double-digit fantasy points in each of the seven games he didn't score a touchdown.
So, you're banking on him scoring a touchdown every week to return value. That's just not a recipe for fantasy football success, especially when you're competing for red zone touches with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
With Likely in the mix last season, Andrews ranked just 23rd among tight ends in route participation (60%) and 20th in expected fantasy points per game. If you're not spending premium draft capital on Bowers, Trey McBride, or Kittle, it's best to wait at the position until much later in your draft.
Round 7 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Throw out all the metrics from Odunze's rookie season. After all, it was a combination of Shane Waldron and Thomas Brown calling plays for the Bears. As a reminder, here's what Jaxon Smith-Njigba had to say about Waldron as a play-caller:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba on Shane Waldron (February 2024)
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 12, 2024
I mean, just look at the vanilla route tree Waldron had D.J. Moore running last season. It was so, so bad, but now, we've got Ben Johnson calling the plays. That could be the most elite coaching upgrade in the history of coaching upgrades.
From the sound of it, Odunze has been Caleb Williams' favorite target throughout camp and the preseason. Check out these first-read targets, pure gold!
Don't forget, Odunze was the ninth overall pick just a year ago in a stacked wide receiver class. Not only that, but Moore's role appears unclear heading into the 2025 season. Wheels up for Odunze.
Worst - Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers tendered Jaylen Warren for about $5M for the 2025 season and brought in Kenneth Gainwell. They also drafted Johnson in the third round, but it sounds like Johnson has really struggled with pass protection, and he won't offer much in the passing game.
Enter Warren and Gainwell, two backs who excel in pass protection and catching the football. So what's the upside for Johnson? Pittsburgh ranked just 23rd in offensive touchdowns per game a season ago.
The best way for a running back on a sub-par offense to score fantasy points is to be utilized in the passing game, and it doesn't sound like that's in the cards for Johnson. He wasn't asked to do it much in college (just 29 total receptions compared to 508 rush attempts).
Najee Harris was the clear-cut RB1 last season, finishing with over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns with 48 targets, and was still outside the top 25 running backs.
Round 8 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers
The Texas rookie has a "golden" (get it!?) opportunity to immediately step into a large role in Week 1. Jayden Reed is reportedly dealing with a Jones fracture, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs have both battled injuries during the offseason, and Christian Watson won't be available until much later in the season.
Doubs and Wicks aren't high target earners to begin with, so there's a lot of opportunity to take over as the alpha in this receiver room. Golden is the first receiver taken by the Packers in the first round of the NFL Draft since Javon Walker in 2002. That says a lot about how they feel about the young man.
It's translated to the practice field. Golden and Jordan Love have built strong chemistry throughout camp. The reviews on this kid are glowing, from the head coach, to the offensive coordinator, to Love himself. "He's gonna be a stud."
Green Bay also plays in one of the highest-scoring divisions in football, which only helps Golden's bull case as a rookie. At this price, it's a no-brainer.
Honorable mention: Emeka Egbuka
Worst - Cooper Kupp, WR, Seattle Seahawks
The Rams took on over $22 million in dead cap when they released Kupp after the 2024 season. That speaks volumes to how they feel about him as a player, and the metrics agree. Kupp regressed significantly last season.
Per Reception Perception, Kupp had just a 30th percentile success rate vs. zone coverage last season. He ran 64% of his routes from the slot. The year before that, Kupp had an 86th percentile success rate vs. zone coverage. The dropoff was massive. Sure, he was returning from injury, but here's a guy who's entering his age-32 season.
His inability to separate led to just 4.24 yards after catch per reception in 2024, per Fantasy Points Data. That's very low for a guy playing such a high percentage of his snaps from the slot, as this typically provides more room to operate.
At this point in the draft, we want to take guys with upside, and that's something Kupp just doesn't have at this point in his career.
Round 9 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Slick Rick literally got shot in the chest last offseason and still managed to play a good chunk of his rookie season. That's dedication! Things didn't start so great for Pearsall, but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that he didn't have many reps to acclimate to the system (hamstring injury + gunshot wound).
Remember, Pearsall was an elite prospect coming out of Florida and was taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft as a result. And this time around, he's getting all the work in with Brock Purdy.
Check out this read and timing, pure perfection (and lots of trust between both guys):
This is outstanding from Ricky Pearsall!
He’s running the Crossing Route on Keeper/Boot
Underneath LB tries to cheat the Route so he settles 👌 pic.twitter.com/xTByAs4LMs
— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) August 16, 2025
With Aiyuk and Jennings both absent from camp and preseason, Pearsall's taken over as the de facto WR1. That's a valuable role in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Per Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports, Aiyuk ranked fifth in fantasy points per route run in 2023, while Jennings ranked 13th in 2024.
Aiyuk likely won't return until at least Week 6, and who knows what's going on with Jennings and his calf/contract issues. It takes time for a receiver to learn Shanahan's system, but it sure appears as if Pearsall has done so and is ready to take the next leap in 2025.
Worst - Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The news keeps getting worse and worse for Godwin. He still hasn't practiced, and now it sounds like he won't return for at least the first 4-6 weeks of the 2025 season. At that point, he won't have played football for an entire season, and four to six weeks into this season, there's a chance Egbuka has already established himself as a mainstay in this offense.
There's no guarantee Godwin has the same role pre-injury as he will post-injury, and there's also no guarantee he'll be able to perform at a level even remotely close to where he was previously.
With the Bucs also a candidate for team regression given the departure of then-offensive coordinator Liam Coen, there are too many question marks surrounding Godwin in 2025.
Round 10 - Best and Worst Draft Picks
Best - Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
The Kraft hype hasn't slowed down since the end of last season. He's by far and away the TE1 for the Packers, and it sounds like his role will grow even further in 2025. It's to the point where Love himself said that Kraft's usage has been a focal point of the offseason program. What more could you possibly want?
With Reed dealing with a foot injury that probably won't resolve itself, there's an even greater opportunity for Kraft to take the opportunity by the horns and run with it. While he hasn't shown an ability to earn targets at a high clip (just yet), Kraft is in the Kittle tier when it comes to YAC.
In 2024, he led all tight ends with 9.38 YAC/reception. He was also second behind Jonnu Smith in percentage of targets from designed plays, per Fantasy Points Data.
When it comes to the tight end position, Fantasy Alarm's Andrew Cooper says it best: you better be an elite athlete and have a chance to be a top-2 target earner on your team.
Kraft is definitely an elite athlete and has a real chance to be the number two target earner for the Packers this season. The opportunities will continue to come his way, and there's a chance he's the late-round tight end breakout you need in 2025.
Worst - Austin Ekeler, RB, Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson Jr. was traded to the 49ers, but that doesn't really affect Ekeler much. Both guys had established roles last season. However, what does affect Ekeler is the addition of Deebo and the steam behind rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt ("Bill").
Just like with Kupp, what's the upside case with Ekeler? He could be in a three-way split backfield and has to contend with a running quarterback. On top of that, Samuel Sr. has 180 rush attempts in his last four years.
In 2024, Ekeler finished just 41st among running backs in expected fantasy points per game (9.4) and just 86th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.10).
The juice is no longer there, and thus, his role could shrink even more in 2025. Steer clear.
After Round 10 - Best and Worst Picks
Best targets after Round 10:
Worst targets after Round 10:
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