Thunder's 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Thunder Dan Palyo outlines how he is approaching fantasy football drafts in 2025 with a primary focus on when to draft which positions in standard redraft formats.

One of the great things about fantasy football is that every year is different, and if you simply deploy the same strategy and approach to your drafts every season, you're probably not going to give yourself the best chance to win every year.

Everyone has their favorite way to approach drafts, and there are multiple paths toward a championship. We've seen certain approaches, such as "Zero Running Back" or "Hero Wide Receiver," become popular in recent years, but I'm not here to sell you on a rigidly defined strategy for 2025 fantasy football drafts.

Instead, I would rather lay out how I am approaching drafts this season with a big focus on being flexible and willing to adapt to what happens on draft night, as you can't predict in advance what various strategies your league-mates are going to attempt. It's also important to recognize that redraft leagues vary in size and settings, so where you target certain players or positions may vary based on the size of team rosters, how many players you start weekly, and what the scoring settings are in your league.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Laying a Foundation in Rounds 1 and 2

As I mentioned in the introduction, understanding the size of your league and the scoring settings is paramount. For this article, I am going to go through how I would approach drafting in a 12-team league with half-PPR scoring and the following starting roster slots: QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-FLEX-FLEX

I'm not worried about defenses or kickers. If you're wondering why, I can explain that later. Who we are worried about in the first two rounds are elite running backs and receivers.

A pretty popular sentiment about the early rounds is that "you can't win your league in the early rounds, but you CAN lose it." That reflects the idea that your first few picks should be very high-floor picks that carry the least amount of risk possible. Losing your first- or second-round pick for an extended stretch of the season could spell disaster for your team.

If we look at the top-24-ranked players in half-PPR formats, I am going to rule out Christian McCaffrey because of his injury history. I'm also not taking a quarterback with my first two picks, so Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson could be off the board by Round 3, depending on the slot from which I'm drafting.

Let's rule out Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, too, because I am not paying up for tight ends this season (more on that in a bit).

So that leaves us with three options. We can draft two running backs, two wide receivers, or one of each. Let's discuss each scenario.

I've already employed the two-RB strategy a few times, and I have to say I like how it sets me up. Being able to grab a top-4 back in the first round from the group of Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry (sorry CMC) and then come back with another bell-cow back in the second round from the group of Ashton Jeanty, De'Von Achane, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, or Josh Jacobs is going to lay the type of safe foundation that we are looking for with our first two picks.

If you're in a PPR format, then bump up Jeanty, Achane, and Brown while bumping down Henry.

Trusted target 🎯

📰: https://t.co/lNxiwzIpF3 pic.twitter.com/Df85F35yJB

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) August 21, 2025

My second favorite approach here is to grab one receiver and one back. If you've landed the No. 1 overall pick, it's pretty tough to pass up Ja'Marr Chase. If you draft Chase, then you should be in a pretty good position to draft someone like Irving or Brown (my two favorite targets) at pick 24, with Jacobs and Taylor being solid consolation prizes.

The other scenario where you go with a receiver first could be if you're picking later in the first round and the top four backs are already taken, leaving you in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, and Brian Thomas Jr. territory.

Pairing one of these elite pass-catchers with a running back in the second round is also going to leave you feeling pretty good heading into the third round.

Are you high on Brian Thomas Jr. this season in Liam Coen’s offense? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/AraLZkZTu5

— DraftKings (@DraftKings) August 20, 2025

What I haven't done much is go WR-WR in the first two rounds. Doing so leaves me with someone like James Cook, Omarion Hampton, or Kyren Williams as my RB1, and I have some concerns (though fairly mild) about each of them. There are plenty of really good receiver options in Rounds 3-5, and I'm fine with taking my WR1 and/or WR2 after the first two rounds.

So, When Do I Draft a Quarterback?

I'm making a concerted effort to invest in an elite quarterback in Round 4. My third-round pick is another top receiver or running back, and I often have to watch Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson go in the third.

I have three quarterbacks whom I'll target in Round 4, with Jalen Hurts being my top option. Hurts finished as the QB6 last season despite only 361 pass attempts (24 per game) on the strength of 14 rushing touchdowns.

The "Tush Push" is back this year, so there's no reason not to project Hurts for a bunch more rushing TDs, and I'm projecting that his passing volume goes up as the league attempts to slow down Saquon Barkley and the run game.

Jayden Daniels is the other "cheat code QB" I'll consider here, and he will sometimes go a few picks before Hurts. Daniels ran for 891 yards last season, which trailed only Jackson in rushing yards among quarterbacks while compiling an impressive 25:9 QB: INT ratio.

QB Draft Strategy for 2025 Fantasy Football:

Draft one of these guys is available in RD4:

- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson
- Jalen Hurts
- Jayden Daniels

If not…

- Drake Maye
- Justin Fields

Both available in RD11 + have the EASIEST schedules in 2025

— Chris O'Brien (@17gamepace) June 10, 2025

If you whiff on all four of Allen, Jackson, Hurts, and Daniels, then Joe Burrow is a reasonable pick in the fourth round, too. While he doesn't have the elite rushing floor of the top four, his massive volume (652 passing attempts and nearly 5,000 yards in 2024) is likely to be there again this season. He's got elite weapons around him at every position and a defense that can't stop anyone, so Burrow is probably going to find himself in a bunch of shootouts again.

If I don't end up with a top-5 QB, then I'm happy to wait for Justin Fields in Rounds 8 or 9. Fields may not be a great NFL quarterback, but he's been an excellent fantasy quarterback as a starter in both Chicago and Pittsburgh.

The Jets have no one behind him, and his rushing ability gives him a very high weekly floor. I think he has enough weapons in New York to be a productive fantasy player this season, even if the Jets do employ a relatively conservative approach on offense.

Drake Maye is a very trendy pick this year, but I'm intrigued by his potential development in Year 2, and he's usually on the board in Round 9. Dak Prescott should have to throw the ball plenty this season, and he is another guy you can target here. The other QB in this range I'm ok with is Bo Nix, as he could be set up in Denver for another very productive season in his sophomore campaign.

I'm doing everything I can to grab my QB1 in one of these two ranges, as I'm not very confident with any QB going later than Maye as my top signal-caller.

Mid-Round Picks Are All About VALUE

In Rounds 5, 6, and 7, I am targeting receivers or backs who I believe are values at their ADP. Going heavier on running backs early means loading up on receivers here and vice versa. I do think there are more receivers in this range with upside than running backs, which is why I advocated for a RB-RB or RB-WR start in the first two rounds.

If you do take a QB in Round 4, you're going to want to aim to grab your RB2 or WR2 in Round 5. Some of my favorite options for running backs would be James Conner and Chuba Hubbard, while my top fifth-round receivers would be DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. You can see my favorite mid-round receivers here and my go-to mid-round running backs here.

Round 5: James Conner

- Value: always underrated.
- Workhorse volume: 280+ touches.
- Consistent production: 6 RB1 games in 24’.
- Efficiency: still picking up yards after contact at a high rate per PFF.
- Goal line usage: ~80% rushing share. pic.twitter.com/aVlnDeJQgG

— Joshua Cho (@jbchoknows) August 14, 2025

It's ok to target upside here and reach for someone like Emeka Egbuka or Travis Hunter, but it's also a good spot in the draft to stock up on reliable floors with guys like Conner and Smith, who have delivered consistent results just about every week for the last four years in a row.

Not every pick has to be a sexy pick, either! Ricky Pearsall and Matthew Golden are getting a ton of buzz, but boring 'ole Jakobi Meyers could still outscore both of them.

You're building depth in this part of the draft and filling out your roster with players who are likely going to be in your starting lineup as your RB2, WR3, or FLEX. A good blend of younger players and veterans is probably the right recipe for success here!

Wait on Tight Ends This Year?

I mentioned already that I have no interest in paying a premium for Brock Bowers or Trey McBride in the early rounds. That leaves George Kittle in Round 3 as the next premium option, and while I like Kittle a lot this season, it's a pretty high price to pay for a guy who has never been able to sustain that level of production for a full season. He should be great, but ask yourself, "Will Kittle outscore Davante Adams, James Cook, or Mike Evans?"

Sam LaPorta is available in Round 4, but we saw last season that he can be the odd man out in Detroit some weeks with how many other weapons are in that offense. T.J. Hockenson is attached to a first-year quarterback, while Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce have been declining now for two straight seasons.

The Colts believe Tyler Warren could lead the team in targets, similar to how Brock Bowers did last season, per @BenjaminSolak.

Warren's Yahoo ADP is currently 117.9 👀 pic.twitter.com/GklZKsNPOG

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) August 18, 2025

I'm not looking at tight ends until somewhere around Round 8, where I have been grabbing Colts rookie Tyler Warren as often as I can. If Warren gets sniped here, then I'm giving guys like Tucker Kraft, Jake Ferguson, and even Bears rookie Colston Loveland a look.

And if you want to wait even longer, there's another crop of late-round tight ends in Zach Ertz, Brenton Strange, and Chig Okonkwo. I wrote about some of my favorite TE values here.

Use Your Head: Defenses and Kickers Last - Always!

There's been a pretty widespread movement to get rid of kickers in fantasy football, and perhaps your league already has. But even if you have kickers in your league, you shouldn't be taking them ahead of important backups at the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions.

There's always one team that drafts a kicker far too early, but don't be that person! While certain kickers are far more accurate and reliable than others, trying to predict which kickers will have more scoring opportunities than others is a fool's errand. You can stream kickers weekly if you don't end up with a reliable option on a good offense.

Most leagues still have team defenses, but there's no reason to be reaching for those ahead of position players, either. There are usually only a handful of defenses that score well enough every week to keep on your roster all season. Streaming defenses is a very common strategy that can be employed successfully, especially if you read our defense streamer rankings and weekly content at RotoBaller every week!

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