MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/25/2025)

July 25, 2025

Kipp's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/25/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Tyler O'Neill, Salvador Perez, Austin Slater, and Yainer Diaz.

It is a typically large, full-to-be-exact slate for this Friday, July 25, 2025, which means we can look to take advantage of hitters in plenty of great conditions. Tonight, we have hitters with great pitching matchups. Additionally, we have some warm weather all across the nation as we near the end of July. There are numerous good spots to consider, but we need to narrow down the selections, which is exactly what I will attempt to do in this article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, July 25, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/25/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, July 25:

• Tyler O'Neill, Baltimore Orioles
• Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
• Austin Slater, Chicago White Sox
• Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros

Tyler O'Neill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+TBD DraftKings Sportsbook)

We are going to start off with Tyler O'Neill of the Baltimore Orioles, who has several things working in his favor tonight, including and should have relatively decent odds once they are listed. O'Neill has smacked just three home runs, but he has also played in just 33 games due to injury. He is back in the Orioles' lineup and should be looking to mash against Colorado Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland.

Freeland has struggled mightily this season as he has allowed a total of 10 home runs while posting a 5.19 ERA. Much of this damage has been caused by right-handed hitters like O'Neill, as righties this season have hit nine of the 10 home runs against Freeland, and have posted a .319 AVG. Overall, the metrics show a lefty that has been hit rather hard, as Freeland has allowed an average exit velocity of 84.7 mph, and has allowed a whopping 32.5% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph. These rank him in the bottom 1% of the league in each category.

Enter O'Neill, who has posted a superb .966 OPS vs. southpaws since 2023. He has also crushed 20 of 43 home runs against left-handers across this same span. He should be in a prime spot to go deep against Freeland, but even when Freeland is done, O'Neill will get to take a crack against a Rockies' pen that has allowed a whopping 57 home runs, which ranks third-worst in baseball.

Salvador Perez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Salvador Perez has been having another quiet yet powerful season, as he has now racked up a total of 18 home runs. He has also been swinging the bat well lately, given his 1.255 and nine home runs over the previous 21 days. Quite frankly, he has been on a power binge, which is reflected a bit in his odds. Much of his success this season has come against right-handed pitching as well.

Perez has hit 17 of his 18 home runs against right-handed pitchers while posting an OPS of .825. That is exactly who he will be facing in the Cleveland Guardians' right-hander, Gavin Williams. Williams has had his ups and downs this season, which include posting a respectable 3.54 ERA yet allowing 14 home runs and a good amount of hard contact. Overall, Williams has allowed an 83.2 mph average exit velocity and 25.3% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph. These rank him in the bottom 13% and 26%, respectively.

Perez has another solid shot to go deep tonight, and playing in a familiar home park at Kaufman Stadium where he has a .750 OPS since 2023 should also help his cause. The weather should be warm as well.

Salvador Perez drills his 8th home run in his last 11 games! pic.twitter.com/O3Bmyjpy6D

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 23, 2025

Austin Slater OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Austin Slater is a bit of a sneaky pick, as the odds tend to indicate. We are going for sheer value here as Slater is not the most likely candidate to go deep. That being said, I do like the spot he is in for this matchup against Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs.

While Imanaga has been a steady pitcher, much like the aforementioned Williams, he has struggled a bit with the long ball this season. Overall, he has allowed a total of 11 home runs, 10 of which have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. He has also allowed some hard contact, as noted by his average exit velocity of 83.4 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 8% of the league. This is quite astonishing given Imanaga's 2.40 ERA, which suggests he has been getting a bit lucky.

Imanaga has also allowed 25.1% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 29% of the league. While Slater has hit just four home runs across 47 games this season, all four of these home runs have come against left-handed pitching. Slater has also posted a .771 OPS with a dinger across the previous 14 days, so at least he is also running a bit hot.

Austin Slater. NO-DOUBTER 💥 pic.twitter.com/E4PlCf0GuW

— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2025

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Yainer Diaz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Yainer Diaz is a player that we will get to very shortly; however, this play is more about the pitcher he is facing than the actual talents (albeit plenty) of Diaz. He will be up against Athletics' left-hander Jeffrey Springs, who has been tortured by right-handed hitters this season, which Diaz just so happens to be.

Springs has given up a total of 19 home runs, 16 of which have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. He has also allowed a decent amount of hard contact, as noted by the fact that he has allowed 23.9% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 44% of the league. This is certainly a pitcher that Diaz can look to take advantage of from the right side of the plate.

Overall, Diaz has hit 13 home runs, five of which have come against left-handed pitchers. He has also posted a solid .864 OPS against southpaws across 65 PA this season. Over the previous 21 days, Diaz has posted an .821 OPS and paired that up with three home runs. The metrics have also looked solid for Diaz, as he has posted an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph, which ranks inside the top quartile of the league. He has also posted a 6.9% barrels/PA, ranking him in the top 31% of the league. Diaz will be playing at home, where his OPS is significantly higher than on the road.

Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market.

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