MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/18/2025)

July 18, 2025

Kipp's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/18/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Gavin Sheets, Jo Adell, Jose Ramirez, and more!

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! Friday has finally arrived, which means we have a hefty slate of games to review in order to find some of the best opportunities for home run props out there. I always enjoy writing this article on Fridays, because we typically have a ton of options to choose from, and that is certainly the case tonight.

Tonight, we have a ton of options to choose from, including great weather, great matchups for hitters, and great ballparks for home runs. We will definitely be taking a look at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa tonight, which has great weather and a great park factor for home runs. We will not be looking at Coors tonight, however, as home runs in that park, no matter the player, do not usually come at a cheap price.

Below, you'll read about four of my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, July 18, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile. You can also combine these props with other picks into SGP or round robin plays that provide even more potential upside. I typically play a small unit size on home run props, but round robins and SGP create the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one player prop hits.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/18/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, July 18:

• Gavin Sheets, San Diego Padres
• Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels
• Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
• Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Gavin Sheets OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We are going to start this party with a bang in Gavin Sheets. I already knew he was going to be a part of this article based on the matchup, but then, when I searched Twitter (X) to add a post to tag, I learned he recently had a baby on July 14. He is definitely going yard tonight with his "dad" strength, right?

All kidding aside, Sheets does have a great matchup we can hope to exploit tonight. On the season, Sheets has smacked a total of 14 home runs while posting a respectable .775 OPS. These numbers should come as no surprise, given the power metrics backing them up. He has posted a hard hit rate of 35.3%, which ranks him in the top 32% of the league. He has also posted an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, ranking him in the top 16% of the league.

Additionally, Sheets has posted a Barrles/PA mark of 7.4%, which ranks him in the top 26% of the league. Of the 14 home runs he has hit this season, 13 have come against right-handed pitchers while posting an OPS of .810. Tonight, he will be up against Washington Nationals' right-hander Michael Soroka.

Soroka has had his fair share of struggles in 2025, allowing a total of 10 home runs while posting a 5.35 ERA. Of those 10 home runs, eight have come against left-handed bats like Sheets. The metrics are also a bit ugly for Soroka. Overall, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 82.2 mph, which ranks him in the bottom half of the league. He has also allowed 25% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 29% of the league.

Overall, this is a great spot for Sheets to keep rolling, and once Soroka is done, he will get to square off against a Washington Nationals' bullpen that has allowed the sixth-most home runs in the league.

Gavin Sheets, for the lead! pic.twitter.com/RldhltMk1h

— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2025

Jo Adell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jo Adell was on an absolute tear leading up to the All-Star break, and finds himself in another advantageous spot this evening. Overall, Adell has hit 19 home runs while posting an .800 OPS. Over the previous 21 days, Adell looks even better, as he has posted an OPS of .825.

Adell is another player with great power metrics, as he has posted a hard hit rate of 40.3%, which ranks him in the top 8% of the league. He has also posted an average exit velocity of 91.3%, ranking him in the top 18% of the league. He has also done well against left-handed pitching, as noted by his OPS of .854. That is also who he will be facing in the Philadelphia Phillies' starter, Jesus Luzardo.

Luzardo has had some solid flashes of greatness this season, but he has also posted an ERA north of 4.00 and allowed a total of seven home runs. While the seven home runs may not look that bad on the surface, all seven of them have come against right-handed hitters, and he has allowed a total of 33 home runs to righties since 2023.

The metrics also tell us a story of a pitcher giving up plenty of hard contact. Overall, Luzardo has allowed an average exit velocity of 82.8 mph, which ranks him in the bottom quartile of the league. He has also allowed 25.7% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 23% of the league.

Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jose Ramirez is a player near and dear to my heart as I am an avid Cleveland Guardians fan, but that is not why I am choosing him to go yard tonight. Ramirez has hit a total of 18 home runs while posting an .869 OPS on the season.

He has also posted an average exit velocity of 89.5 mph, which ranks him in the top half of the league. He will be facing off against Athletics' left-hander JP Sears, who has allowed a whopping 17 home runs to right-handed hitters this season. Luckily for Ramirez, he has posted an OPS of .941 against southpaws this season.

Sears has given up a ton of hard contact, as noted by his average exit velocity of 83.0 mph. He has also allowed nearly 25% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 34% of the league. While this game will not be played at home for Sears, where he has been flat out abysmal, he has allowed a very high 1.8 HR/9 on the road.

José Ramírez: 1.163 OPS, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 7 SB
Kyle Stowers: 9-for-18 (.500 AVG), 3-homer game on July 13

Your AL and NL Players of the Week. pres. by @Chevrolet! pic.twitter.com/dSVzVr2T6X

— MLB (@MLB) July 14, 2025

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Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We are going to round out today's article with Gunnar Henderson, who has smacked 11 home runs while posting a .783 OPS this season. He has been on an absolute heater as well, as noted by his 1.491 OPS over the previous week.

Henderson has absolutely raked against right-handed pitching, given his .909 OPS with nine home runs. He will be up against Tampa Bay Rays' right-hander Taj Bradley. Bradley has allowed a total of 12 home runs, seven of which have come off left-handed sticks.

The metrics have also looked a bit rough for Bradley, as he has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.2 mph, ranking him in the bottom 13% of the league. He has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9 at Steinbrenner Field, which is where he will be pitching tonight.

Henderson has also posted a 93.0 mph average exit velocity, which ranks him in the top 5% of the league, as well as a hard hit rate of 38.5%. This matchup in the heat and a smaller ballpark is a great spot for him to stay hot.

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