RADIO
Todd McGill's Round 4 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 John Deere Classic. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
The John Deere Classic has delivered fireworks and birdies this July 4th weekend. TPC Deere Run has been getable, with much of the scoring coming over the first 36 holes before heavy winds brought in afternoon storms, making scoring more difficult on Saturday. Sunday looks to have a wetter challenge tomorrow, which could honestly mean better scoring than what the third round had.
2024 champion, Davis Thompson, hopes to channel his inner Steve Stricker tomorrow and defend his title by hanging on to a narrow one-shot lead. Putting has been the leading metric on the week, but making sure to hit as many greens as possible is also commanding serious attention. Eight of the top 10 players on the leaderboard rank inside the top 15 for the week in greens in regulation.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding players performing well on approach is a good general rule. However, roster decisions that give you ownership leverage by taking riskier players who haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Since the PGA Tour has decided to keep tee times closer to their normal schedule, the expectation must be to play most of the day. However, scoring could become tougher later in the day if the need for long stoppages in play arises from the possibility of thunderstorms. While I think it's viable to go with a few names further down the board because of this, it won't be something I'm heavily focused on given how bunched the leaderboard is.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Davis Thompson has played TPC Deere Run in a much different way than most of the players on the first page of this leaderboard. He is outside the top 25 for the week in both strokes gained putting and on approach. Instead, his combination of length and accuracy off the tee has allowed him to bomb and gouge through the first 54 holes.
Thompson ranks third in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.23) and around the green (+1.24). Since his work on the greens hasn't been what's gotten him to the lead, I don't expect the added moisture or potential need to stop play to affect him as much.
Other Options: Jake Knapp
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Chris Gotterup has matched his length off the tee with accurate iron play this week and is in prime position to capture his first top 10 of the season. The 25-year-old leads the field in greens in regulation (85.2%) and driving distance (318.2). That hasn't exactly transformed into the types of low scores needed to be fully in the mix here, but the baseline it creates is awesome for DFS.
Luckily, he's close enough to make a move on Sunday with a big day with the putter, or if Mother Nature levels the playing field in that regard. From a tee-to-green perspective, Gotterup is doing everything you'd want for continued success tomorrow.
Chris Gotterup: A winner on the @PGATOUR! pic.twitter.com/V2kv7pJhl6
— Oklahoma Golf (@OU_MGolf) May 12, 2024
Other Options: Lucas Glover is an extremely close second.
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Lee Hodges had a very Jekyll and Hyde round on Saturday that included leading the day in strokes gained on approach (+4.57), tee to green (+3.74), and greens in regulation (94.4%) while ranking 45th in strokes gained off the tee (-0.40), 48th around the green (-0.43), and 55th in putting (-1.85).
Nothing about how his week has gone is overly surprising, but the regression with the flat stick and the driver is slightly concerning, given his performances in recent weeks. But as far as firepower goes, he arguably has the most in this range.
Other Options: Sam Stevens, Emiliano Grillo
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Rico Hoey has done everything right this week... except hole putts. Seriously, the man is on fire with virtually every other club, as he leads the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.51) and tee to green (+3.51), and ranks eighth on approach (+1.59). With everyone in this range seemingly inside the top 25, this is by far the most difficult choice; there's just a lot to like here.
Rico Hoey with a flawless bump-and-run for birdie on 11! 🤌🎯
📺 Golf Channel | @WWTChampionship pic.twitter.com/WLq9Tlw160
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) November 7, 2024
Other Options: Max Homa, Kurt Kitayama, Seamus Power, Patrick Fishburn, Brian Campbell
$6,000+
Favorite Play: After carding three double-bogeys on Thursday's opening round en route to a +1 over 73, Phillip Knowles has strung together back-to-back bogey-free rounds on Friday and Saturday. The 28-year-old has hit over 86% of his greens during that span while gaining +5.29 strokes from tee to green and +3.19 strokes putting. If that keeps up on Sunday, look for the former UNF golfer to capture his first career PGA Tour top 10.
Other Options: Jackson Koivun
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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