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Nicho's H2H points fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for pitchers in Week 9 (May 26 - June 1). Free-agent pitchers to add in points leagues.
Happy Memorial Weekend, RotoBallers! Welcome to Week 9 of our weekly column, where I discuss starting pitchers you should target that are owned in less than 50 percent of leagues, according to Yahoo. If you want to look at previous' weeks' recommendations, bookmark this page to review our experts' MLB streamer recommendations to help you stay one step ahead of your league mates.
Last week, we discussed Gavin Williams, Ryan Weathers, and Max Meyer, all of whom had excellent outings in Week 8, scoring 12 or more fantasy points. In fantasy sports, it's crucial to analyze your roster weekly and identify buy-low and sell-high situations, as teams and players constantly evolve, whether for the better or the worse. In today's article, we will locate a few buy-low situations with the upside to help you build a stronger roster for the long haul.
Keep following @RotoBallerMLB and me, @NichoRoessler, on X to stay updated with the latest content. You can always message me your fantasy baseball questions; I am happy to provide input! Best of luck this week, and let's keep swinging for the fences!
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Shane Baz, SP - Tampa Bay Rays
49% Rostered
Tampa Bay right-hander Shane Baz got off to a blistering hot start in April with a 2.45 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings pitched. However, May has been a different story. He has made four starts thus far and allowed 21 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings with only 12 strikeouts. This rough stretch has raised his season ERA to 5.33. Yuck.
Where I want to focus with Baz is that his advanced stats show signs of positive regression. He owns a 3.99 xERA, 3.97 SIERA, and a 4.07 xFIP. In Week 8, he gets the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday, while in Week 9, he gets away from George M. Steinbrenner Field and pitches in Houston to take on the Astros. The Astros are not the same old Astros since moving on from Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. They rank 22nd overall in MLB in runs scored in 2025.
Diving deeper into Baz's arsenal, he features primarily his four-seamer (86th percentile in fastball velocity) and his knuckle curve, which he throws 31.6 percent of the time and holds batters to a .203 BA. His curveball is excellent; it drops 13.6 inches and has 8.4 inches of break. His third pitch, the changeup, he throws 12.7 percent of the time and holds opponents to a .259 BA. It moves in on righties and away from lefties with 17.9 inches of tail.
This is legitimately the best I’ve ever seen Shane Baz stuff wise
Look at this sequence 😳 pic.twitter.com/jWFgC4zbEC
— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) April 2, 2025
He mixes in a slider, but only throws it 8.6 percent of the time, and it gets hit around (.471 opponent BA).
Although he is primarily a north-to-south pitcher, he still generates a strong groundball rate of 48.6 percent. His stuff is solid, evident by his 108 Stuff+; he needs to minimize the free passes (nine percent walk rate) and some of the loud contact and pitch better when he has runners on base. If he can clean some of that up, I like our chances of getting the April Baz back.
Recommendation: Baz has electric stuff and a ton of upside, and although he pitches in a tough ballpark at home, he has the swing-and-miss ability to provide a high ceiling. If he were dropped in your league, take advantage, as Baz is a strong play for the rest of the season. I also really like his Week 9 matchup against the Astros. Plan to spend about 10-15% of your FAAB
Dustin May, SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
38% Rostered
I featured Dustin May in Week 2 of this weekly column when he was inserted into the starting rotation due to all of the Dodgers' starting pitching injuries. Like Baz, he had a strong April (3.95 ERA) but struggled a bit in May (4.24 ERA). The young right-hander has thrown 50 2/3 innings on the season with a 4.09 ERA, 49 punchouts, and a 1.24 WHIP.
His advanced metrics align with his actuals, as he owns a 3.74 SIERA and a 4.54 ERA. That being said, in 242 1/3 innings pitched in his career, May has a 3.31 ERA. He is coming off a strong start on May 21, where he was brilliant against the fifth-best offense in MLB (fifth in runs scored), the Arizona Diamondbacks. He threw six innings, allowed five hits, one earned run, and struck out eight.
By all metrics, May has been an average pitcher in 2025. Most of his percentile rankings range between the 30th and 60th percentiles, with his outlier being his groundball rate, which sits in the 85th percentile. May is an east-to-west pitcher, meaning he relies primarily on his sinker, which induces 18.4 inches of arm-side tail and 4.5 inches of rise, and his sweeper, which has 16.9 inches of glove-side break, also has 1.9 inches of drop.
Dustin May's Ridiculous Sweepers. 😳 pic.twitter.com/TBYjaY28wH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 22, 2025
That is a vast range of working in and out to hitters, which is how May has been effective in his career, minimizing loud contact and barrel percentage (5.1 percent in 2022 and 5.1 percent in 2023). So far this year, his command has not been as sharp, and he has seen that barrel percentage number increase to 7.7 percent.
He missed all of 2024 with a torn flexor tendon in his right arm and a torn esophagus, so perhaps it has just taken a little bit to get him going, and I am ready to buy the dip. In Week 9, he toes the rubber against the Cleveland Guardians, who rank 24th in the MLB in runs scored.
Recommendation: May has historically had great stuff, is still young, and pitches for one of the best teams in MLB. The Dodgers' potent offense backs him and should continue to rack up wins and lower his ERA closer to his career number. The only risk I see is if the Dodgers' starting rotation gets healthy and Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell return, I'm unsure if May will stay in the rotation. In the meantime, do your team a favor and pick him up, as he has a ton of upside. Plan to spend 10-15% of your FAAB.
Tomoyuki Sugano, SP - Baltimore Orioles
38% Rostered
Welcome to the top four, Tomoyuki Sugano! He has been sitting in our tier one streamers for weeks, and it's time to take notice with his two-start week coming up in Week 9. On Monday, he gets the St. Louis Cardinals; on Sunday, he gets the Chicago White Sox. In his start on May 21 against the Milwaukee Brewers, he went six innings, allowed five hits, two earned runs, one walk, and struck out three; he now owns a 3.07 ERA in 58 2/3 innings pitched on the season.
Sugano has spent most of his professional career pitching in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league and signed a contract with Baltimore over the offseason. He has provided the Orioles' pitching staff with much-needed consistency in a rotation that has struggled with a 5.45 team ERA on the season.
Sugano is not one to blow hitters away with his velocity or stuff, as he owns an underwhelming 92 Stuff+, but he makes up for it with his command (105 Location+) and his ability to limit hard contact and free passes. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in walks allowed, 63rd percentile in average exit velocity, 77th percentile in hard-hit percentage, and 60th percentile in groundball rate.
Sugano has many pitches, including his split-finger, sweeper, four-seamer, cutter, sinker, and curveball. He throws all six of his pitches at least 11 percent of the time, mainly leaning on his split-finger (25.3 percent). He utilizes this wide array of pitches to keep hitters off guard and limit hard contact.
Tomoyuki Sugano, 94mph Fastball and 88mph Splitter, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/8y4JaZjIhJ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 29, 2025
What I like the most is that although his whiff (18.2 percent) and strikeout (13.8 percent) rates are in the bottom 10th percentile, he does generate a 31.6 percent chase rate (81st percentile), meaning he gets batters to chase after pitches out of the zone. Because of that, I like his chances at positive regression and to get closer to the 25th-30th percentile in strikeout rate by season's end.
Recommendation: Sugano has a safe floor that can provide your team with some consistency toward the bottom half of your rotation. If he falters and doesn't provide you with quality starts, then drop him, but for now, he has provided a quality start in three of his last four outings and can work deep into ballgames. Start him in his two-start Week 9, and go from there. Plan to spend around 10% of your FAAB.
Hayden Birdsong, SP - San Francisco Giants
34% Rostered
Finally! Hayden Birdsong has been sitting in our stashbox for multiple weeks, and it's his time to shine. He was solid in his first start in 2025 against the Kansas City Royals on May 20. He went five innings, allowed five hits, and struck out four. Most importantly, he allowed zero walks (has a career 4.75 BB/9 rate).
Multiple experts have discussed Birdsong in depth, and many of us have felt he should have been in the rotation at the start of the year. However, the Giants decided to deploy him out of the bullpen to start the season, and with Jordan Hicks stumbling to a 6.47 ERA, they decided to make the move. In 11 appearances out of the bullpen in 2025, he owned a 2.31 ERA in 23 1/3 innings pitched.
Birdsong made 16 starts in 2024, his rookie campaign, and had a decent 4.75 ERA in 72 innings pitched. Many experts liked him coming into the year because of his 27.9 percent strikeout rate in 2024, which ranked in the 83rd percentile. Birdsong features a great four-seamer, changeup, solid slider, and curveball.
Hayden Birdsong, Dirty 89mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/YFQzHNbne1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 21, 2025
His curveball gets a ton of downward movement, with 16.4 inches of drop, with his slider getting 5.4 inches of rise and 2.1 inches of break. His best pitches are his four-seamer and changeup. The four-seamer averages 18.9 inches of rise and 6.2 inches of tail, while his changeup drops off the table with 1.3 inches of drop and 12.2 inches of tail. Like Baz, he is a north-to-south pitcher with great stuff, evident by his 107 Stuff+.
Recommendation: In Week 9, the young right-hander is slated to have a two-start week, Monday against the Detroit Tigers (tough matchup) and Sunday against the Miami Marlins (good matchup). I recommend starting him in both matchups, especially Sunday, but my leading advocacy for Birdsong is a season-long play. He will not be owned in under 50 percent of leagues for long. Plan to spend 15-20% of your FAAB.
Honorable Mentions - Others To Prioritize
I understand that deeper leagues may not have the players listed above available, so check out the list below for pitchers to add to your watch list or stream this week based on their matchups (Tier 2).
Tier 1: Team Streamers
Pitchers Who Could Stick Around, But We Need to See More Consistency From or Improved Underlying Numbers
- Brayan Bello, BOS
- Lucas Giolito, BOS
- Will Warren, NYY
- Kyle Harrison, SFG (similar to Birdsong, he is replacing Justin Verlander's spot in the rotation after his injury)
- Noah Cameron, KCR
- Stephen Kolek, SDP
- Clayton Kershaw, LAD
- Jack Leiter, TEX
- Gunnar Hoglund, ATH
- Cade Horton, CHC
- Logan Henderson, MIL (he is now at 58% owned, but I hope he stays up, and if not, ride him while he's called up)
- Zebby Matthews, MIN
- Tyler Anderson, LAA
- Luis Severino, ATH
- Michael Lorenzen, KC
- Jose Soriano, LAA
- Michael Soroka, WSN (he added a slurve to his arsenal and it's paying dividends)
Tier 2: Plus Matchup Only
One And Done
- Jameson Taillon, CHC (faces COL at home)
- Ryne Nelson, ARI (faces PIT)
- Randy Vasquez (faces MIA)
- David Peterson (faces COL at home)
- Dean Kremer, BAL (faces CWS)
- Nick Martinez, CIN (faces KCR)
Tier 3: Desperation Tier
You've Probably Made Some Bad Choices Already
- Cal Quantrill, MIA
- Kyle Freeland, COL
- Ryan Feltner, COL
- German Marquez, COL
- Charlie Morton, BAL
- Antonio Senzatela, COL
- Sean Burke, CWS
- Jonathan Cannon, CWS
- Bryse Wilson, CWS
Tier 4: The Stashbox
If you can stash these players on your IL or NA spot, I recommend doing so sooner rather than later.
- Bubba Chandler, PIT
- Brandon Woodruff, MIL
- Jacob Misiorowski, MIL
- Eury Perez, MIA
- Justin Verlander, SFG
- Aaron Civale, MIL
- Luis Gil, NYY
- Andrew Painter, PHI (Made Triple-A debut on May 8)
- Max Scherzer, TOR
- Sean Manaea, NYM
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU
- Kutter Crawford, BOS
- Yu Darvish, SDP (slated to start Tuesday, according to FanGraphs)
- Max Scherzer, TOR
- Shane Bieber, CLE
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