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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/19/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Coming off a highly successful Sunday of MLB betting, including a 3-1 mark on NRFI bets, I'm ready to deliver some more winning wagers today.
I'll admit that this slate is tricky with fewer obvious bets, but I still have four spots that I feel good about after digging into those first-inning stats and trends.
In this piece, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Monday, May 19, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets today are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the entire game's outcome. The most common outcome for the first inning is an NRFI, so the odds usually reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds than YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 19, 2025)
- New York Mets at Boston Red Sox (6:45 pm)
- Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 pm)
- Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins (7:40 pm)
- Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (9:45 pm)
New York Mets at Boston Red Sox NRFI (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- NYM: Kodai Senga (7-1)
- BOS: Hunter Dobbins (4-1)
Let's kick it off with our best odds for today's picks. We are getting close to even money here today and at least one ace on the hill with the Mets rolling out Kodai Senga and his NRFI streak of seven straight scoreless first innings. The Red Sox counter with a young, unproven rookie righty, Hunter Dobbins.
The Red Sox have a formidable top of the lineup with Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, and Alex Bregman, however, Boston is just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last 10 games. Senga has the type of stuff to buzz through any lineup when he's on. Let's just hope he has good control today!
Kodai Senga strikes out three straight batters to get out of the jam! 👻 pic.twitter.com/SoAI43kKPa
— MLB (@MLB) May 14, 2025
Dobbins has worked four straight scoreless first innings, and as if you dig into his advanced stats, his profile looks pretty promising. He's only a modest strikeout pitcher, but he's not walking anyone, and his ERA indicators suggest that his run prevention has not been a fluke.
The Mets have a good offense, but not in the first inning. They're 2-8 on YRFIs in their last 10 games, sitting at just 23% for the season. This game has solid potential to start with a scoreless first frame, and it presents us with some nice value at this price.
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- HOU: Colton Gordon (1-0)
- TBR: Ryan Pepiot (6-3)
Anytime we have to deal with rookie pitchers, it can be a bit nerve-wracking. But Houston's lefty Colton Gordon has one thing going for him today. He may have a 6.23 ERA through just one MLB start, but he's facing arguably the coldest offense in all of baseball in the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa has been held under four runs in seven of their last nine games. They don't hit for power, and are starting to strike out more often. Their 77% NRFI rating is the third-worst in the major leagues, and they are one of only a few teams I would feel comfortable attacking with Gordon, who didn't look all that great in his debut.
On the other side of this game, we get Ryan Pepiot, who by all accounts is a pretty good pitcher, facing a Houston offense that continues to rank dead last in first-inning production. Pepiot has an NRFI in three of his last four games, and while his one big weakness is the long ball, he's only surrendered one home run in the first innings so far this season.
The pitching is a little shaky here, but the offenses have been bad, specifically early, so we will have to count on that trend continuing.
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- CLE: Logan Allen (7-1)
- MIN: Bailey Ober (6-3)
Now these are some better pitchers, for sure. I wouldn't call either of them dominant, but Ober is having a fine season, and Allen is starting to turn things around after a slow start. Allen is riding a six-game NRFI streak, and Ober has a five-game streak of his own. So we start things off with some strong pitching trends here.
I like the matchup for Allen here as the Twins are on the road side of their splits against lefties, and they had been using several of them at the top of the order lately. Perhaps they will juggle that today, but they scare me less against LHP.
Meanwhile, the Guardians' offense has struggled, especially early in games. They are just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last 10 games, and they have the tougher draw against Ober, a pitcher who mixes four to five different pitches effectively to keep hitters off balance.
The pitching and offensive trends line up quite nicely here, and the price is still fair at -130.
Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants NRFI (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- KCR: Kris Bubic (9-0)
- SFG: Robbie Ray (6-3)
We cap off the evening with the best pitching matchup as both teams are rolling out lefties who have been dominant this season. Robbie Ray is a known entity, but Kris Bubic is the guy enjoying a major breakout campaign, and he brings his perfect 9-0 NRFI record and a sub-2.00 ERA into a road start against the Giants.
Bubic must be careful with Heliot Ramos, who led off yesterday's game with a solo home run and who I have dubbed a "bona fide lefty masher." But Bubic has been so good this year that it's hard not to like him here as the Giants are just 3-7 on YRFIs over their last 10 games with a .194 average in the first inning. The Giants are 15th in wRC+ against lefties over the last two weeks, which ranks right in the middle of the pack.
Kris Bubic has gone at least 6 Innings with 2 or fewer earned runs in 6 starts.
He’s had 9 starts!
Domination! #FountainsUp pic.twitter.com/j41L60gDeZ
— Royals Muse (@KCRoyalsMuse) May 14, 2025
Ray is coming off a rough first inning in his last outing as the Diamondbacks got to him for three runs on five hits. Ironically enough, he then settled in and fired six scoreless frames after that with nine strikeouts and picked up the win.
Kansas City's offense is not of the same ilk as the Diamondbacks, however. They're much worse, and they're rolling two-week averages against LHP are abysmal, ranking 26th in wRC+ and 25th in wOBA.
The odds reflect that bettors like this pitching matchup, too, but with a smaller slate tonight, I can't be too picky. If you don't like laying those short odds on straight bets, feel free to toss this into some parlays instead.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Pirates (10-0)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Angels (30%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Angels (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Padres (.391)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: Padres (.429)
Even with a smaller Monday slate, there are still strong angles to attack in the no runs first inning (NRFI) market. Each of today’s picks features compelling trends, from dominant NRFI streaks by pitchers like Bubic and Logan Allen to struggling early-game offenses like the Rays and Royals. Whether you're targeting consistent arms or ice-cold lineups, there’s real value in today’s MLB NRFI bets.
If you're building your card, don’t overlook the hidden edges in the NRFI bets today, especially with under-the-radar matchups showing positive indicators. As always, shop for the best odds and keep an eye on lineups and weather right up to first pitch.
For anyone seeking the most profitable edges in baseball betting, staying locked into MLB NRFI bets is a sharp strategy—especially on slates like this one, where early-inning trends are clear. Let’s cash another card and keep riding the no runs first inning train into the week ahead.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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