MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/16/2025)

May 16, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/16/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Kerry Carpenter, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Freddie Freeman, and more.

We have a large slate of MLB action today, with a lot to choose from when searching for the long ball. Our focus today will be on bats in favorable matchups and optimal hitting conditions, whether that be due to the park, matchup, or weather conditions. We have some fun home run bets today, with a number of guys finding themselves in great hitting spots.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep. I will also note at the end of the write-up on players I feel could be taken as a one-off bet to hit a home run, as these players will have a lot working in their favor.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, May 16, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is difficult.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/16/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, May 16:

• Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
• Mark Vientos, New York Mets
• Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
• Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kerry Carpenter OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+245 FanDuel and DraftKings)

I was hoping we would have a little higher odds here on Kerry Carpenter, but Vegas knows what is up in this matchup against Bowden Francis and the Toronto Blue Jays. Francis has struggled mightily this season. In 2025, he has allowed a total of 12(!) home runs. Of those 12 home runs, nine have come against left-handed hitters.

The metrics for Bowden tend to agree with the home runs allowed. Overall, he is allowing an average exit velocity of over 85 mph, which ranks him in the seventh percentile of the league. He has also allowed 35% of balls to be hit 95 mph or higher, which is also not good.

It is good, however, for Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter loves facing right-handed pitching. This is a well-known fact. In 2025, he posted a .918 OPS vs. righties. He has also hit seven of his nine home runs this season against right-handed pitching. The recent stats back up Carpenter as well. Over the previous week, Carpenter has posted a 1.117 OPS.

I think this is a play you could make as a one-off, given the struggles of Bowden Francis and Carpenter's innate ability to rake against right-handed pitching.

this Kerry Carpenter guy is solid pic.twitter.com/s9T1OkScpq

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) May 4, 2025

Mark Vientos OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Look, the most obvious home run play in this game is going to be Pete Alonso. This should come as no surprise, as he has nine home runs on the season, but in this article, I want to try and give a few more under-the-radar type guys to go along with a chalk play or two, and Vientos fits that bill.

Let's start with the New York Mets' opponent, the New York Yankees' left-handed starter, Carlos Rodon. Now, some may call me crazy for going after Rodon here, but he has allowed a whopping eight home runs this season and a total of 54 home runs since 2023. Quite frankly, he is a bit prone to the long ball. Of those 54 home runs allowed since 2023, 45 of them have come against right-handed bats.

In 2025, Rodon's metrics are not exactly going to back up a call for a home run in terms of things like average exit velocity allowed or balls hit 95 mph or higher, but he has allowed a subpar 1.3 HR/9, so we can still look to attack based on this.

Vientos has hit a total of five home runs in 2025, and while only one of them has come against left-handed pitching, he has only seen 28 plate appearances against Southpaws this season. In 2024, Vientos posted an .884 OPS against lefties while hitting seven of 27 home runs against lefties. This came across just 139 plate appearances, so the power against lefties is quite real here.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+245 FanDuel)

Full disclosure: I am not absolutely in love with this Pete Crow-Armstrong play, but I wanted to give the readers something to take a look at in the early game today at Wrigley Field. The winds are supposed to be howling, as the current prediction shows 20+ mph winds blowing out. When the winds are blowing out like this at Wrigley, you have to take a look at a home run prop or two.

Crow-Armstrong has been on a torrid pace to begin the season as he has now hit 11 home runs. Of those 11 home runs, eight have come against right-handed pitching. This should not be a big surprise, given his .886 OPS against righties this season. He has also posted an average exit velocity of 90.3 mph, which ranks him in the 68th percentile.

Even more impressive is his 9.8% barrels/PA mark, ranking him in the 95th percentile.

Crow-Armstrong has also been hot recently, as five of his home runs have come in the previous two weeks while also posting a .928 OPS across that span.

He will be up against Shane Smith of the Chicago White Sox. Smith has been pretty solid, which is where some trepidation comes in here. He has allowed just one home run this season, but it did come against a left-handed hitter. He also does not have the greatest spin rate, as noted by his 2,127 RPM mark, so hitters may be able to see him a bit better in this matchup.

It should be a fun game in Wrigley this afternoon, so might as well take a flyer on a hot bat here.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the coolest player in baseball 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/AMURpx1dIR

— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) May 14, 2025

Freddie Freeman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings Sportbook)

I am pretty surprised we continue to get Freddie Freeman at such decent odds. +380 is nothing to shake a stick at, especially when we are looking at a guy who has mashed nine home runs already. For comparison, Shohei Ohtani has hit 15 home runs (I know, several more, but still...) and is currently posted at an absurd +160. We can hopefully get the job done with Freeman here at much better odds.

As aforementioned, Freeman has hit nine home runs this season, seven of which have come against right-handed pitching. He has also posted a ridiculous 1.185 OPS against righties this season and has a .962 OPS against them since 2023.

The metrics also look solid for Freeman, who is posting an average exit velocity of 92.7 mph, a barrels/PA mark of 9.6%, and a hard hit rate of 34.7%. These marks rank him in the upper echelon of the league, to say the least.

Freeman's opponent will be Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jack Kochanowicz, who has not been performing too well in 2025. On the season, he has allowed a total of seven home runs, six of which have come against left-handed hitters.

He has also allowed 30.7% of balls to be hit 95 mph or more, which ranks him in the seventh percentile of the league. He has also allowed at least one home run in six of his eight starts, including allowing a dinger in four of his previous five starts.

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