Brandon Murchison's Final First Round Mock: 2025 NFL Draft

Brandon's final first round mock of the 2025 NFL Draft. Looking at the projected landing spots, he gives his fantasy analysis for the players post-draft.

As the NFL Draft approaches, fantasy football enthusiasts eagerly await the opportunity to gauge how incoming rookies will shape their draft strategies. This mock draft analysis examines the projected landing spots for the top prospects, offering a fantasy football perspective on how the teams' fit, offensive schemes, and depth charts could impact their production. From dynamic quarterbacks to explosive wide receivers and versatile running backs, I’ll explore how each player’s new NFL home could elevate or temper their fantasy value in the 2025 season.

In this article, I’ll break down the first round of the draft, focusing on key skill-position players and their potential fantasy impact. By examining team needs, coaching tendencies, and offensive environments, I aim to provide insight into which rookies are poised for immediate contributions and which may need time to develop. Whether you’re playing in redraft, dynasty, or keeper leagues, understanding the context of a player’s landing spot is critical to making informed decisions on draft day.

My predictions consider not only the talent of these prospects but also the ecosystems they’re entering, from quarterback play to competition for targets and touches. While the draft itself is unpredictable, this fantasy-focused lens aims to equip managers with the knowledge to identify breakout stars and avoid potential busts. Let’s dive into the mock draft and uncover the fantasy implications of where the newest NFL talent might land.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
• Best ball fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Cam Ward - QB, Tennessee Titans

Cam Ward, projected to land with the Tennessee Titans as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, brings a dynamic skill set that could intrigue fantasy football managers, particularly in dynasty leagues. Ward’s elite arm talent, off-script playmaking, and ability to push the ball vertically align well with head coach Brian Callahan’s offensive scheme, emphasizing play-action and deep passing.

However, his fantasy outlook for 2025 is tempered by the Titans’ limited receiving corps beyond Calvin Ridley, tight end Chig Okonkwo, and potential growing pains in a rebuilding offense. Ward’s 2024 college stats—4,313 yards, 39 touchdowns, and a 92.9 PFF grade—highlight his upside, but his turnover-worthy plays (noted by PFF) and the Titans’ organizational instability could cap his immediate impact.

Expect a rookie season with flashes of brilliance, projecting around 3,800 passing yards, 20-24 touchdowns, and 10-12 interceptions, with modest rushing contributions (300-400 yards, two to three TDs), making him a high-end QB2 with QB1 potential in two-QB or Superflex formats.

Ward’s fantasy value for redraft leagues hinges on the Titans’ ability to bolster their offensive weapons through the draft or free agency, as the current roster lacks depth to fully unlock his potential. The Titans’ improved offensive line, with additions like Dan Moore Jr. and Kevin Zeitler, should provide decent protection, but Ward’s aggressive style may lead to sacks and turnovers in a tough AFC South.

His fit in Callahan’s system offers hope for long-term growth, especially if paired with a rookie receiver like Kyle Williams, a former teammate, in later rounds. Dynasty managers should view Ward as a top-tier QB prospect with a path to becoming a consistent QB1 by 2026, while redraft players might consider him a late-round flier or waiver-wire target if he shows early chemistry with Ridley.

A projected seven-win floor, as suggested by some analysts, indicates enough game scripts for fantasy relevance, but patience will be key.

Travis Hunter - WR/CB, Cleveland Browns

Travis Hunter, projected to join the Cleveland Browns as the second overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, emerges as a high-upside fantasy football prospect at wide receiver, leveraging his 2024 Biletnikoff-winning performance (92 receptions, 1,152 yards, 14 TDs). Without Deshaun Watson as the starting quarterback, the Browns' QB situation—potentially led by a rookie like Jalen Milroe/Tyler Shough or Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett - introduces uncertainty but doesn’t derail Hunter’s outlook in Kevin O’Connell’s pass-friendly offense.

Hunter’s elite route-running, ball skills, and ability to generate yards after catch position him as the WR1 ahead of Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, projecting for 75-85 receptions, 900-1,100 yards, and 7-9 touchdowns in 2025. His floor remains solid due to target volume in a scheme that emphasizes quick passes and play-action, making him a mid-tier WR2 in PPR leagues with WR1 potential in dynasty formats. However, the QB instability could lead to inconsistent weekly outputs.

In dynasty leagues, Hunter’s long-term value shines brighter, as his age (21) and athleticism suggest a trajectory toward elite WR status, regardless of who’s under center by 2026. His limited defensive role (10-15 snaps per game, projecting 15-20 tackles, one to two INTs) adds negligible IDP value but underscores his versatility, potentially boosting his fantasy output in leagues rewarding return yards or gadget plays (e.g., 50-100 scrimmage yards via jet sweeps).

The Browns’ strong offensive line, anchored by Jack Conklin and Ethan Pocic, should provide enough protection for a new QB to target Hunter effectively, though a rookie passer could lean heavily on him as a safety valve, inflating his targets but capping efficiency.

Redraft managers should target Hunter in the fourth to fifth round, while dynasty players can confidently select him as a top-5 rookie, banking on his talent to transcend Cleveland’s quarterback uncertainty and deliver consistent production in a high-volume role.

Ashton Jeanty - RB, Las Vegas Raiders

Ashton Jeanty, projected to be selected by the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 6 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, enters a dream scenario for fantasy football managers, particularly in PPR and dynasty leagues. Jeanty’s historic 2024 season at Boise State (2,601 rushing yards, 29 TDs, 5.3 yards after contact per PFF) showcases his elite blend of power, speed, and tackle-breaking ability, drawing comparisons to LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk.

Under head coach Pete Carroll, whose Seattle teams thrived with a run-heavy approach, and with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s gap-scheme system (emphasizing DUO and Power runs), Jeanty is poised to be a bell cow back, projecting for 250-300 carries, 1,400-1,600 rushing yards, 12-15 rushing TDs, and 40-50 receptions for 400-500 receiving yards and two to three TDs in 2025.

Paired with Geno Smith’s serviceable quarterback play and Brock Bowers’ presence to draw defensive attention, Jeanty’s three-down role makes him a top-5 RB in redraft leagues and a potential 1.01 pick in dynasty formats, especially given the Raiders’ league-worst 2024 rushing attack (79.8 yards per game).

However, risks temper Jeanty’s ceiling in his rookie season. The Raiders’ offensive line, despite adding veteran Alex Cappa, remains a weak point, ranking among the NFL’s worst in run-blocking (56.5 PFF rushing grade in 2024), which could limit Jeanty’s efficiency compared to his Boise State dominance.

Additionally, while Carroll’s run-first philosophy and Kelly’s scheme fit Jeanty’s strengths, the Raiders’ rebuilding phase and tough AFC West matchups (against defenses like the Chiefs and Chargers) may lead to negative game scripts, reducing carries in blowouts. His pass-blocking needs refinement, but his 2023 receiving prowess (43 catches, 569 yards, 5 TDs) ensures he stays on the field in passing situations.

Fantasy managers should view Jeanty as a high-volume RB1 with a floor buoyed by receptions, though his weekly consistency may hinge on offensive line improvements and Smith’s ability to keep defenses honest. In dynasty formats, his youth (21) and workhorse potential make him a cornerstone asset, rivaling Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson.

Tyler Warren - TE, Chicago Bears

Tyler Warren, projected to land with the Chicago Bears as the 10th selection of the 2025 NFL Draft, steps into a promising fantasy football role as a versatile tight end with elite receiving upside. Warren’s 2024 Penn State season (88 receptions, 1,062 yards, seven TDs, 90.3 PFF receiving grade) showcased his ability as a mismatch nightmare, combining size (6-foot-6, 260 lbs), reliable hands, and surprising agility after the catch.

In Chicago, Warren should complement Cole Kmet in two TE sets and eventually supplant him, projecting for 60-70 receptions, 700-850 yards, and five to seven TDs in 2025. With Caleb Williams’ strong arm and a receiving corps featuring DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, Warren benefits from a pass-heavy offense (2024: 34.2 pass attempts per game), making him a lower-tier TE1 in PPR leagues and a top-10 dynasty TE, though Kmet’s presence may cap his immediate target share.

The Bears’ offensive ecosystem boosts Warren’s outlook, but challenges remain. Chicago’s offensive line, while improved with Drew Dalman and Joe Thuney, still struggles in pass protection (38 sacks allowed in 2024), potentially forcing Williams to rely on quick dumps to Warren, which suits his skill set but limits big plays.

The Bears' play-calling tends to spread targets, and with Moore, Odunze, and running back D'Andre Swift commanding touches, Warren’s ceiling could be closer to Evan Engram than Travis Kelce in year one. His limited blocking prowess may reduce snaps in run-heavy packages, but his alignment flexibility (30 percent slot, 20 percent wide in 2024) ensures he’s a mismatch against linebackers and safeties.

Redraft managers should target Warren in rounds 9-11 as a high-upside TE with weekly TE1 potential, while dynasty players can view him as a top-5 rookie TE pick, banking on his chemistry with Williams and a path to 100+ targets by 2026 in a dynamic, ascending offense.

Tetairoa McMillan - WR, Dallas Cowboys

Tetairoa McMillan, projected to be drafted by the Dallas Cowboys in the mid-first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, steps into a high-octane passing offense with immediate fantasy football appeal. McMillan’s 2024 Arizona season (91 receptions, 1,319 yards, eight TDs, 89.7 PFF receiving grade) highlights his elite combination of size (6-foot-5, 210 lbs), contested-catch ability, and deep-threat speed, making him a perfect complement to CeeDee Lamb in Dallas' system.

With Dak Prescott’s consistent production (2023: 4,516 yards, 38 total TDs) and a scheme that averages 36.5 pass attempts per game, McMillan projects for 65-80 receptions, 900-1,100 yards, and six to eight TDs in 2025, positioning him as a potential upside WR2 in PPR leagues.

His red-zone prowess (20 percent of 2024 targets inside the 10-yard line) and chemistry with Prescott, who thrives targeting big-bodied receivers, make him a prime redraft target in rounds 5-6 and a top-20 dynasty WR prospect, though he’ll compete with Lamb and Jake Ferguson for targets.

However, McMillan’s fantasy ceiling faces hurdles in Dallas’ crowded offense. Lamb’s role as the alpha (130+ targets annually) and Ferguson’s emergence as a reliable tight end (65 receptions in 2024) could limit McMillan’s target share, especially early, as he adjusts to NFL defenses. The Cowboys’ offensive line, anchored by Terence Steele and Tyler Smith, provides solid protection, but their run-first tendencies may reduce the passing volume in positive game scripts.

McMillan’s 2024 tape shows occasional drops (5.2 percent drop rate per PFF), which could frustrate fantasy managers if Prescott’s trust shifts to Lamb in clutch moments. Still, his ability to stretch the field (16.2 yards per catch in 2024) and win jump balls ensures a high floor.

Dynasty managers should covet McMillan’s long-term potential as a future WR1, while redraft players can bank on weekly WR2 production with spike weeks in shootouts, particularly against NFC East secondaries like Washington’s (2024: 28th in pass defense).

Colston Loveland - TE, Indianapolis Colts

Colston Loveland, projected to be selected by the Indianapolis Colts in the mid-first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, emerges as a high-upside tight end with immediate fantasy football relevance in a Shane Steichen-led offense. Loveland’s 2024 Michigan season (81 receptions, 885 yards, six TDs, 88.4 PFF receiving grade) underscores his polished route-running, reliable hands, and ability to gain yards after the catch, making him a seamless fit for an offense that heavily involves tight ends (2024: 92 targets to TEs).

Paired with Anthony Richardson’s dual-threat ability and a receiving corps featuring Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, Loveland projects for 45-60 receptions, 600-750 yards, and four to six TDs in 2025, positioning him as a high-end TE2 in PPR leagues. His alignment versatility (40 percent slot, 15 percent wide in 2024) and Steichen’s creative play-calling, which mirrors his Eagles tenure with Dallas Goedert, make Loveland a round 11-13 redraft target and a top-15 dynasty TE prospect, though he’ll share snaps with veterans like Mo Alie-Cox early on.

The Colts’ offensive environment offers both opportunity and challenges for Loveland’s fantasy outlook. Richardson’s arm strength and improvisational style should create big-play chances (Loveland averaged 13.2 yards per catch in 2024), but his 2024 accuracy issues (59.5 percent completion rate) and run-heavy tendencies (142 rushes) could limit passing volume, especially with Jonathan Taylor commanding 250+ carries.

Indianapolis’s offensive line, led by Quenton Nelson, provides solid protection, but the team’s balanced attack (2024: 51 percent pass play rate) may cap Loveland’s ceiling compared to TEs in pass-heavy systems. His adequate blocking skills ensure he stays on the field in 12-personnel sets, boosting his snap share.

Dynasty managers should view Loveland as a long-term TE1 with a path to 90+ targets by 2026 as Richardson hopefully matures, while redraft players can expect consistent TE2 production with upside in games where the Colts lean on the pass, such as against pass-funnel defenses like the Jaguars (2024: 26th in pass defense).

Matthew Golden - WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Matthew Golden, projected to be selected by the Los Angeles Chargers after a trade up to the 15th overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, brings explosive playmaking to a revamped offense under head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Golden’s 2024 season at Texas (76 receptions, 1,089 yards, nine TDs, 87.9 PFF receiving grade) highlights his speed (4.38 40-yard dash), crisp route-running, and ability to stretch the field, making him a dynamic complement to Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston in Justin Herbert’s passing attack.

In Roman’s balanced system, which blends play-action and deep shots (2024: 32.8 pass attempts per game), Golden projects for 60-75 receptions, 800-950 yards, and five to seven TDs in 2025, positioning him as a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside in PPR leagues.

His ability to win downfield (15.6 yards per catch in 2024) and Herbert’s elite accuracy (67.2 percent completion rate in 2024) make him a round 6-8 redraft target and a top-20 dynasty WR prospect, though he’ll need to carve out a consistent role in a crowded receiver room.

The Chargers’ run-heavy philosophy, anchored by Najee Harris, could limit Golden’s target volume, as Roman’s offense prioritizes efficiency over pass volume. Los Angeles’s offensive line, bolstered by Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, provides Herbert ample time to target Golden on intermediate and deep routes. Still, Harbaugh’s conservative game scripts may reduce passing opportunities in blowout wins.

Golden’s 2024 tape shows occasional concentration drops (4.8 percent drop rate per PFF), which could hinder his chemistry with Herbert early, especially with McConkey’s reliability as the slot target. His special-teams value as a returner (two return TDs in 2024) adds marginal points in return-yardage leagues.

Dynasty managers should view Golden as a high-ceiling WR2, while redraft players can expect boom-bust WR3 output with spike weeks against weaker secondaries like the Raiders (2024: 29th in pass defense).

Omarion Hampton - RB, Denver Broncos

Omarion Hampton, projected to be selected by the Denver Broncos in the mid-first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, enters a favorable fantasy football environment as a workhorse running back in Sean Payton’s balanced offense. Hampton’s 2024 North Carolina season (1,876 rushing yards, 17 TDs, 4.9 yards after contact per PFF) showcases his blend of vision, burst, and physicality, making him an ideal fit for Payton’s gap-and-zone scheme that powered Alvin Kamara’s success.

With rookie QB Bo Nix’s efficient play (2024: 3,811 yards, 25 TDs) and a receiving corps featuring Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr., Hampton projects for 210-250 carries, 1,100-1,350 rushing yards, nine to 11 TDs, and 30-40 receptions for 250-350 yards and one to two TDs in 2025.

His three-down potential in an offense averaging 29.5 points per game in 2024 positions him as a high-end RB2 in PPR leagues, a round 5-6 redraft target, and a top-12 dynasty RB prospect, though he’ll need to outshine Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin for the lead role.

The Broncos’ offensive ecosystem offers both promise and challenges for Hampton’s fantasy outlook. Denver’s offensive line, led by Quinn Meinerz and Garett Bolles, ranks top-10 in run-blocking (73.2 PFF grade in 2024), providing Hampton with clean lanes, but Payton’s committee tendencies (2024: Javonte Williams and McLaughlin combined for 378 touches) could cap his carry share early.

Nix’s mobility and check-down tendencies should ensure Hampton sees dump-off targets, boosting his PPR floor, but Denver’s pass-first approach in negative game scripts (2024: 56% pass play rate) may limit carries against stout AFC West fronts like Kansas City’s. Hampton’s adequate pass-blocking (68.5 PFF pass-block grade) keeps him on the field in passing situations, unlike Williams.

Dynasty managers should view Hampton as a long-term RB1 with a path to 300+ touches by 2026, while redraft players can bank on RB2 production with weekly volatility depending on game flow, particularly in favorable matchups like the Raiders (2024: 27th in run defense).

Shedeur Sanders - QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Shedeur Sanders, projected to land with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the mid-first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, brings a polished pocket-passing skill set to a fantasy-friendly offense under coordinator Arthur Smith. Sanders’ 2024 Colorado season (4,183 yards, 37 TDs, seven INTs, 91.2 PFF passing grade) highlights his accuracy, poise, and ability to extend plays, aligning well with Smith’s play-action-heavy scheme that revitalized Russell Wilson in 2024.

Paired with receivers George Pickens and DK Metcalf, and a run game led by Jaylen Warren, Sanders projects for 3,600-3,900 passing yards, 22-26 TDs, and 10-12 INTs, with very minimal rushing upside in 2025.

His fit in Pittsburgh’s efficient offense (2024: 30.1 points per game) makes him a lower-tier QB2 in redraft leagues, a round 13-15 pick, and a top-20 dynasty QB prospect, though his limited rushing caps his ceiling compared to dual-threat QBs.

The Steelers’ offensive environment offers stability but also constraints for Sanders’ fantasy outlook. Pittsburgh’s elite offensive line, anchored by Broderick Jones and Isaac Seumalo, provides clean pockets (2024: 28 sacks allowed), allowing Sanders to exploit defenses with Pickens’ deep-threat ability.

However, Smith’s run-first philosophy (2024: 512 rushing attempts) and reliance on a committee running game approach could suppress passing volume, especially in positive game scripts. Sanders’ 2024 tape shows occasional risk-taking (2.8 percent turnover-worthy play rate per PFF), which may lead to turnovers against Pittsburgh’s tough AFC North schedule. His modest mobility adds a small rushing floor, but fantasy managers shouldn’t expect Lamar Jackson-like production.

Dynasty players can bank on Sanders’ long-term growth into a potential QB1 as the duo of Metcalf and Pickens gels, while redraft managers should view him as a matchup-based QB2 with spike weeks against pass-funnel defenses like the Browns (2024: 25th in pass defense).

Jaxson Dart - QB, New Orleans Saints

Jaxson Dart, projected to be selected by the New Orleans Saints resulting from a trade back into the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, steps into a fantasy-friendly situation as a mobile quarterback in a balanced offense under new head coach Kellen Moore. Dart’s 2024 Ole Miss season (4,461 passing yards, 33 TDs, five INTs, 426 rushing yards, six rushing TDs, 90.7 PFF grade) showcases his dual-threat ability, arm talent, and improvisational flair, fitting Moore's scheme that emphasizes play-action and quarterback mobility, as seen with Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts.

With weapons like Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill, Dart projects for 3,700-4,000 passing yards, 24-28 passing TDs, 11-13 INTs, 300-400 rushing yards, and three to five rushing TDs in 2025, making him a mid-tier QB2 in redraft leagues, a round 10-12 pick, and a top-15 dynasty QB prospect in superflex formats, thanks to his rushing floor.

The Saints’ offensive environment offers both opportunities and risks for Dart’s fantasy outlook. New Orleans’ offensive line, bolstered by Trevor Penning and Taliese Fuaga, provides decent protection (2024: 34 sacks allowed), but its middling run-blocking (65.8 PFF grade) may force Dart to rely on his legs or quick passes to Olave and Kamara.

The Saints' balanced attack and Hill’s red-zone vulture role (six TDs in 2024) could cap Dart’s touchdown upside, while the absence of a reliable RB1 post-Kamara may increase passing volume in negative game scripts. Dart’s 2024 tape shows occasional recklessness (3.1 percent turnover-worthy play rate per PFF), which could lead to turnovers against NFC South defenses like Tampa Bay’s.

Dynasty managers should view Dart as a potential top-12 QB by 2026, given his fit and weapons, while redraft players can expect somewhat inconsistent QB2 production with weekly QB1 spikes in shootouts, particularly against defenses like the Falcons (2024: 28th in pass defense).

Emeka Egbuka - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Emeka Egbuka, projected to be selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars after a trade by the team to receive the final pick of the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, enters a promising fantasy football environment as a polished wide receiver in Liam Coen's pass-centric offense. Egbuka’s 2024 Ohio State season (78 receptions, 1,039 yards, 10 TDs, 88.1 PFF receiving grade) highlights his crisp route-running, reliable hands, and versatility to play both slot and outside, making him a strong complement to Brian Thomas Jr.

With Trevor Lawrence’s unrealized potential and an offense averaging 35.2 pass attempts per game, Egbuka projects for 65-80 receptions, 850-1,000 yards, and five to seven TDs in 2025, positioning him as a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside in PPR leagues.

His ability to generate yards after catch (5.8 YAC per reception in 2024) and red-zone reliability make him a round 6-8 redraft target and a top-24 dynasty WR prospect, though he’ll need to carve out targets in a crowded receiver room.

The Jaguars’ offensive ecosystem offers opportunities but also challenges for Egbuka’s fantasy ceiling. Jacksonville’s offensive line, led by Anton Harrison, provides solid protection (2024: 32 sacks allowed), allowing Lawrence to target Egbuka on quick slants and intermediate routes.

However, Coen’s balanced attack (2024: 49 percent pass play rate) and the presence of Thomas and tight end Brenton Strange may limit Egbuka’s target share, particularly early as he adjusts to NFL coverages. His 2024 tape shows minimal drops (2.9 percent drop rate per PFF), but his lack of elite deep speed (4.47 40-yard dash) could cede big plays to Thomas.

Dynasty managers should view Egbuka as a high-floor WR2, while redraft players can expect consistent WR3 output with spike weeks in favorable matchups, such as against the Titans (2024: 27th in pass defense).

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