NFC Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends Analysis For Week 4 (2024)

September 26, 2024

Kevin's fantasy football wide receiver sleepers, risers and fallers for Week 4 of 2024. He looks at last week's targets and receptions data to find buy-lows.

Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent target-earners are among the top fantasy point scorers: they can be relied on by not just their team’s offense to earn targets and produce on those targets.

We’ll take a weekly team-by-team look into these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. To properly lead into what we’ll be looking at this season, we’ll have to establish a baseline of the most important things we’re looking at with targets and other receiving metrics that paint the full picture for who we should be rostering, who we should be adding, and who we can drop.

Everything we’ll discuss in this season’s WR Targets, Air Yards, and Snaps trends analysis article will be some of the best statistics and metrics correlating with fantasy football production. Think of targets as a page in a coloring book, representing the outline yet to be colored. Coloring on that page adds context and flavor to that page. That’s what we’ll do with targets — adding more context than just some target totals and box score stats.

Note: As the season progresses, noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. Statistics from our player pages at RotoBaller were included during the compilation of data, while Pro Football Reference, PFF, Fantasy Points Data, NFELO, NFL NextGenStats, RotoViz, ESPN Stats and Info, SumerSports, and Nathan Jahnke's Immediate Fantasy Football Takeaways article for that particular week were also used as resources in the creation of this article.

Important Links

In order to streamline this article going forward for the rest of the season, we have separated the article into the NFC teams and AFC teams, as well as shortened the tables for maximum readability. But if you want the full tables for each team in the NFL for this week, we'll also provide that link to the full tables with statistics right here.

To find the AFC Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts Article, click right here to go right over to the AFC portion.

NFC Top 15 Target Share % Increases From Week 2 To Week 3

Jauan Jennings was the major star this week in terms of increasing his target share, as were Dallas Goedert, Diontae Johnson, and Rome Odunze, with production-based spike weeks. Jayden Reed was the beneficiary of a heavy dose of the run, which shortened the targets for the Packers.

NFC Top 15 Target Share % Decreases From Week 2 To Week 3

It's hard to see Malik Nabers at the top here, but when you have an absurd 65% target share, you're bound to come down. Down to 35%, I mean, how rich. Nabers is the overall fantasy WR1, and his rookie season could not have started any better.

Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Notes From Week 3:

We got some encouraging signs from the Arizona Cardinals to bring forward through the season, like a target-earning Marvin Harrison Jr. throughout the game, rather than doing all of his damage in the first quarter of Week 2 and then giving fantasy managers the silent treatment.

A 5-64-1 line on 11 targets is extremely bullish on the target-earning profile, and Harrison may need to carry the offense for a week or two.

That’s because it was a cavalcade of bad mojo turning into a sour day for Trey McBride. A not-so-great 3-25 line on just five targets and McBride was knocked out of the game with a concussion.

The balance of a lesser McBride game swung right to Michael Wilson, who earned nine targets (28% of the team’s targets) and eight receptions for 64 yards. Greg Dortch contributed as well with an inconsequential 3-35 game on six targets.

James Conner’s workhorse role (75% snaps) has completely vaporized Trey Benson to the tune of just two snaps in Week 3. The contingent value for Benson is still there, but he’s clearly down a tier or two in terms of guys you NEED to roster.

While it’s far more likely that Benson nabs 50-60% of snaps and the clear 1A share of work in the event Conner gets injured, Emari Demercado’s current role insulates him to some of that annoying third down and long down and distance work that impedes workhorses from truly smashing.

Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Notes From Week 3:

The funny thing about the Falcons on Sunday Night Football is that Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III are "Spiderman memeing" their way into gobbling up short-area targets.

Admittedly, it was pretty successful, with Mooney catching all eight targets for 66 yards on a paltry 2.8-yard aDOT and McCloud’s 2-17 line on three targets on a 4.3-yard aDOT. These two chipped away as sort of a de facto run game since Bijan Robinson was stymied (less than 2.0 YPC) by a solid Chiefs’ front.

Drake London was very good as he led the Falcons in targets (9) and found the end zone on 100% snaps and route participation. From how sparingly games like London’s 6-67-1 would be in the “Arthur Smith presents the Atlanta Falcons” era, it’s nice to see the talent shine through with real quarterbacks and adults in the room.

The short-area stuff from Mooney and McCloud is a bit concerning for the overall pass volume to the big hitters like London and Kyle Pitts, but considering Mooney’s aDOT in the first two games were 13.0 and 17.5 yards, respectively, it may have just been the gameplan the Falcons decided to employ.

Speaking of Pitts, we had a long gain that was oh-so-close to being a touchdown. Of course, that’s not why most of the NFL media are talking about Pitts.

This is the Kyle Pitts I see when I close my eyes and dream pic.twitter.com/NBz1CC33vI

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) September 23, 2024

Carolina Panthers

Panthers Notes From Week 3:

We might just have a real, functional NFL offense, after all!

Diontae Johnson’s 13 targets and eight receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown look pretty exciting, and while it’s not something we can project each week, it’s nice to see Johnson is alive and good quarterback play exists in Carolina with veteran Andy Dalton.

As long as the offense is at least operating decently, I’m not even sure Bryce Young can get his job back. The difference between the Young-led offense and Dalton’s is night and day. It’s THAT stark of a difference.

Adam Thielen was placed on injured reserve following a hamstring injury suffered on a touchdown grab late in the first half. That touchdown immediately ended Thielen’s day at three catches for 40 yards, and with him going on IR, he opened a path for Xavier Legette (2-42) to get some extended runs.

If this offense is at least league-average, Johnson isn’t going to be the only piece being pulled forward by Dalton. I would trust Legette, the first-rounder, to get the first crack and the longest leash over middling options like Tommy Tremble, Jonathan Mingo, and a host of others.

The others benefiting from a much-improved offensive environment are the running backs Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. Hubbard pulled in the majority of snaps (58%) and had a 3:1 carry split over Sanders, but Sanders ran more routes and scored a short touchdown on the ground despite Hubbard still earning the bulk of the volume in both rushing and receiving.

If you’re holding onto Jonathon Brooks, you’ve got to be incredibly happy and bullish at the runout here for the Panthers’ offense, knowing that Brooks’ massive upside profile hitting in a big way this season is way more in play than it was a week or two ago.

Chicago Bears

Bears Notes From Week 3:

Back in Week 1, we were railing on offensive coordinator Shane Waldron for playing Gerald Everett just because he spent 17 games with him in Seattle a couple of seasons ago over actual tight end breakout Cole Kmet. That ship seems to have sailed, as Kmet is now firmly back in the good graces of fantasy managers.

Even if most did not start him, Kmet’s 11 targets (tied for the team lead!) and 10-97 with a touchdown on 71% routes put him squarely back into the startable tight end range. Granted, tight end hasn’t exactly been a fruitful position in the early going, but Kmet provides some relief for fantasy managers looking for anybody to provide some production.

With Keenan Allen out again with his heel injury, the 52 pass attempts (highest in Week 3) were pretty concentrated around three players who earned double-digit targets: Kmet, D.J. Moore, and rookie Rome Odunze. Moore’s day (8-78) on 10 targets was pretty solid, including a Hail Mary attempt at the end of the first half where Moore caught it at the one-yard line.

Odunze’s afternoon was pretty wild as he led Week 3’s receivers in total air yards (250) and earned 11 targets at a ridiculous 22.7-yard aDOT. His six catches for 112 yards also included a one-yard touchdown grab at the beginning of the third quarter. The Waldron slander is (sort of) on bye this week.

Good luck figuring out the Bears’ running backs, but D’Andre Swift cannot be trusted and/or started in leagues.

D'Andre Swift has 37 carries this season.

Yards gained on each from least to most:
-12, -4, -4, -4, -3, -3, -2, -1, -1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7, 20

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 23, 2024

Considering the Texans and Packers have fed families rushing the ball against the Colts through two weeks, seeing the Bears’ running backs put up a combined 59 rushing yards on 25 attempts is pathetic.

The Bears had been operating (for some reason) with Travis Homer as their RB2 as Roschon Johnson was a healthy scratch and Khalil Herbert was seldom used. So, as we all predicted, Johnson assumed the RB2 role when Homer went on injured reserve and bypassed Herbert.

Explain this running back room to me like I’m five. (Okay, maybe the Shane Waldron slander returned.)

Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Notes From Week 3:

A match made in heaven: Dallas getting obliterated on the ground and Dak Prescott in the fourth quarter down three scores. With the second-most pass attempts just below the Chicago Bears, the Cowboys somehow had only one pass-catcher with double-digit targets, and it wasn’t CeeDee Lamb!

Lamb’s day (4-67 on seven targets) was pedestrian for him, given the increased pass volume. The winner today was the returning Jake Ferguson, who came back after a week off to post 10 targets and a 6-95 line.

Jalen Tolbert (3-42) caught a touchdown in the fourth quarter to help chip away at the Baltimore lead. Tolbert has okay flex value in a “well, somebody else has to do it if it’s not Lamb or Ferguson, right?” kind of way.

Rico Dowdle is getting the bulk of the workload for the Cowboys, but even that hasn’t been very fruitful, as his 47% snaps and 33% routes only resulted in eight carries and three targets for 56 total yards. Ezekiel Elliott has fallen so hard (19% snaps) that former North Dakota St. fullback Hunter Luepke was out here getting designed touches in his stead, and Deuce Vaughn was getting some run, too.

It was a very non-committal running back room, if there ever was one.

Detroit Lions

Lions Notes From Week 3:

The Lions’ raw pass rate was at a minuscule 39% (-14.3 PROE), so naturally, there wasn’t much pass volume with 23 Jared Goff pass attempts to go around. Amon-Ra St. Brown took 36% of the available targets, putting up a 7-75 stat line plus a touchdown. St. Brown also had a hand in what was undoubtedly the play of the week.

It’s so beautiful. Ben Johnson in his bag with the hook/lateral pic.twitter.com/pUrzHL095A

— Anand Nanduri (@NanduriNFL) September 22, 2024

This play resulted in a statistical quirk, where Jahmyr Gibbs has 20 receiving yards and a touchdown without earning a target or getting credit for a reception.

What was not a statistical quirk is Sam LaPorta, last season’s fantasy TE1, earning just two targets for 36 yards. In a combined three games, LaPorta only has 8.7% of the Lions’ targets, for a 1.03 yards per route run, and just 5.8 fantasy points per game.

You’re still starting LaPorta, but the overall TE1 thesis now that Jameson Williams (1-9 on three targets) is a bigger part of the offense is getting thinner and thinner by the week.

Green Bay Packers

Packers Notes From Week 3:

With the Packers, it’s the same story as last week: limited pass volume due to Malik Willis starting. The only realistic starting option amongst the pass-catchers is Jayden Reed, and a lot of that is because of him being involved in the run game (two carries, 19 yards) as well as through the air.

Reed led the team with six targets, catching four for 50 yards. No other Packer caught more than two balls, but Reed is the most consistent fantasy option going forward, whether it’s Willis or Jordan Love back under center against the hair-on-fire Minnesota Vikings defense.

The rushing side of the equation was in full force as Willis ran for 72 yards and a score, plus Josh Jacobs’ 43 yards and Emanuel Wilson’s 50 yards. Wilson also added two targets, catching both for 35 yards and a touchdown on a nifty screenplay.

Emanuel Wilson: Kinda fun! pic.twitter.com/IxivTvzwZT

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 25, 2024

Los Angeles Rams

Rams Notes From Week 3:

The story of the Rams was there really no story. No Cooper Kupp and no Puka Nacua mean a lot of smoothing over amongst the rest of the pass-catchers. Other than Kyren Williams, who had the lone receiving touchdown from Matthew Stafford, all of the pass-catchers earned between three and five targets.

Demarcus Robinson (93%) and Tutu Atwell (80%) earned the most routes amongst the wide receivers as the Rams used quite a bit of 12 personnel – a definite shift in how the Rams operate.

with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp out...

the Rams played out of 12 personnel a whopping 44% of the time

the next closest team was 32.9%. Average is 19.5%

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 24, 2024

The Rams were even on the run/pass splits with 26 pass attempts and 26 rush attempts, and going along with their usage of 12 personnel, the Rams maximized the personnel they had (or didn’t have) to end up snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

Central to that was Williams, who had the receiving touchdown but also two more on the ground in a mildly inefficient day. Williams is still the unquestioned workhorse here (90% snaps) with no Blake Corum in sight (zero offensive snaps) and just two carries from Ronnie Rivers.

Minnesota Vikings

Vikings Notes From Week 3:

The “Sam Darnold is pretty good” campaign is being overshadowed by some other slightly more important campaigns happening in this country, but the O’Connell/Darnold ticket in 2024 might get some write-in votes in the state of Minnesota.

Four more passing touchdowns for our boy Darnold in a complete waxing of the Houston Texans in Week 3. Justin Jefferson (6-81-1 on eight targets) is excellent as always, and it’s so hard to justify fading the best wide receiver on this or any planet in the lead-up to the 2024 season.

Jalen Nailor caught his third touchdown in as many weeks, and his 42.8% touchdown rate seems a bit unsustainable. Without Jordan Addison, Nailor has as close to 100% route participation as it gets without actually having that, but on a per-route basis, he’s still pretty lacking with a 1.41 yards per route run and 12% targets per route run.

You’re buying touchdown equity here with Nailor, which is one of the worst bets you can make, as touchdowns are wildly volatile week to week. I’d like to see more target earnings before I buy Nailor, but he may not get the chance to if Addison returns in Week 4 or Week 5.

Aaron Jones continues to rack up touches and be pretty efficient with them, catching 5-of-6 targets for 46 yards and a touchdown while adding 102 yards on the ground on 60% of snaps. Ty Chandler is still hanging around, but right now, he is no threat to Jones’ workload.

New Orleans Saints

Saints Notes From Week 3:

I think we can still buy the Saints hype even after a dud game like this, but the Saints also played their first normal game of the season as well. Klint Kubiak just didn’t let Derek Carr rip it with just 25 pass attempts and 142 passing yards in a run-heavy script that saw Alvin Kamara rack up 29 touches on 86% of snaps.

Kamara caught all three targets for 40 yards on 78% of routes and was the only non-Chris Olave pass-catcher with more than two receptions. Olave paired up with his good pal regression to post his best game of the young season, with him catching all six targets for a 6-86-1 line.

On the flip side, Rashid Shaheed couldn’t bring in a single reception on his five targets. He did earn 109 air yards, though, a figure that would make Marquez Valdes-Scantling proud. That volatile risk for Shaheed was pretty baked into his draft price, though, so you’ve got to take the bad (Week 3) with the good (Week 1-2).

New York Giants

Giants Notes From Week 3:

There are a LOT of offenses around the NFL that you can’t pinpoint what they want to do in a given week. They say what they want to do – and a lot of it is the obvious “give the ball to [insert star player] X amount of times” that we hear. The New York Giants are making it abundantly obvious what they want to do and then go and do that; a novel concept!

The phrase “build the plane out of [insert player]” has become en vogue, but the Giants building the plane out of Malik Nabers is no exaggeration at all. Through three games, Nabers has the following:

• WR1 in fantasy points per game (22.8)
• WR1 in total fantasy points
• Leads NFL in targets (36) and target share (37.9%)
• Second in NFL in receptions (23)
• Leads NFL in first-read target rate (47.9%, per Fantasy Points Data)

Malik Nabers is like that 😤

📺: #NYGvsCLE on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/luCHu3qBib

— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024

Just utterly amazing and nutty stuff from Nabers, who added another eight receptions, 78 receiving yards, and two touchdowns on 12 targets. He’s as must-start as it gets right now.

In what has turned out to be a condensed pass-catching group, Wan’Dale Robinson earned another eight targets with a 7-61 stat line. While the aDOT (2.4 yards) is a bit problematic, Robinson is making up for it with some schemed-up YAC ability. Besides the running backs, no other Giant earned more than two targets.

Devin Singletary is still the workhorse-ish back here, with at least 14 touches and 69% snaps in all three games so far. That’s not to say there isn’t some avenue for Tyrone Tracy to work his way into the rotation because Tracy’s routes have gone from 22% to 35% from Week 1 to Week 3.

He’s earned looks in a variety of alignments, including in the slot and out wide, with 27% of snaps in Week 3). Tracy remains a priority handcuff who could continue to carve out a standalone role bit by bit.

Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Notes From Week 3:

The Eagles’ condensed receiving day from DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert was marred by a completely ridiculous (unpenalized) late hit by Payton Turner that caused a concussion and knocked Smith out of the game after putting up 7-79 on 10 targets.

This unpenalized hit on DeVonta Smith that caused a traumatic brain injury needs to be discussed tomorrow.
When a player is defenseless with an arm pinned, being held up, and moving backwards, it's an easy KO for anyone willing to go for it.
pic.twitter.com/YGvPNJU7XJ

— Chris Nowinski, Ph.D. (@ChrisNowinski1) September 23, 2024

Goedert’s attempt at single-handedly saving the tight end position from impending doom did not go unnoticed, as he was the overall TE1 on the week with 10 catches for 170 yards, including a 60-yard catch and run where three Saints defenders did their damndest to take each other out on a mesh concept.

Saquon Barkley is making me regret fading him every single week as he continues to rub my nose in the dirt by adding a couple of rushing touchdowns and 156 total yards to his ledger on the season. His workhorse role is one of the best in fantasy, and he is making his emphatic case to be the top running back in all formats this season.

San Francisco 49ers

49ers Notes From Week 3:

With no Christian McCaffrey, no Deebo Samuel Sr., and no George Kittle on the afternoon, the 49ers had to turn to Brandon Aiyuk, who looks he’s still in preseason mode after missing training camp and preseason following a contract dispute. Aiyuk earned 10 targets but could only muster five catches for 48 yards.

The real story (despite the 49ers’ loss to the Rams) was Jauan Jennings’ insane 11-catch, 175-yard outburst with THREE (!) touchdowns. Everything in the passing game was centered around both Aiyuk and Jennings. With Aiyuk seemingly getting back into his routine in what equates to an extended preseason, Jennings did all of the hefty lifting. No other 49ers player had more than three targets.

Continuing his brand of usable high-end RB2 fantasy output, Jordan Mason’s got the stranglehold on the workload (75% snaps, 19-of-22 carries) in McCaffrey’s stead as he apparently heads to Germany to see a specialist. Seems bad!

Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Notes From Week 3:

Seattle did the majority of their damage on the Tua-less Dolphins in the first quarter, with a huge 71-yard touchdown to DK Metcalf (4-104-1) and then the other two scores being Zach Charbonnet's rushing scores.

The Seahawks would be paced by Metcalf and Noah Fant catching all six targets for 60 yards. Seattle didn’t really have to exert much energy as the second Charbonnet touchdown came in the fourth quarter, which was the only score that didn’t happen in the first quarter.

A couple of middling games from Jaxon Smith-Njigba catching all three targets for 39 yards to Tyler Lockett, who led the team in targets (8) en route to a 5-46 day.

Again, with no Kenneth Walker III, Charbonnet crushed utilization with 84% routes and a stellar 107 total yards to go with the two scores.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers Notes From Week 3:

On a team that could only muster a grand total of seven points against the Denver Broncos, predictably, there wasn’t much in terms of offense here. The summer of Chris Godwin rolls on as he’s been THE player to roster for the Bucs in the passing game.

Godwin had the only touchdown for the Buccaneers to go along with 6-53 on eight targets. Mike Evans got Patrick Surtain’d, as he could only scratch out two catches for 17 yards.

Rachaad White update: Still bad!

Rachaad White has 432 carries in his career.

Bucky Irving already has as many runs of over 30 yards in his career.

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) September 24, 2024

Head coach Todd Bowles did say that Bucky Irving has earned more snaps moving forward, so there’s that! We’ll see if that plan goes into motion because White has been generationally bad so far this season. Hilariously, White’s snaps have gone up in three games up to a season-high 74% in Week 3.

That actually is somewhat plausible with the Bucs being down and in a negative game script. Irving (9) did earn more carries than White did (6) and was much more efficient with them, earning 70 yards to White’s 17.

Washington Commanders

Commanders Notes From Week 3:

Jayden Daniels. TERRY MCLAURIN. THE COMMANDERS.

📺: #WASvsCIN on ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/bP5qrpGN8q

— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2024

Monday Night Football was a star-making performance for Jayden Daniels, as he was unleashed on the Bengals, and this throw to Terry McLaurin was the highlight of the night. Daniels and McLaurin’s four catches for 100 yards and that touchdown were the statistical highlights. Other than Zach Ertz catching all five targets for 38 yards, nobody else caught more than three balls for more than 30 yards.

With Austin Ekeler already ruled out for Week 4, Brian Robinson (76% snaps) should have the backfield almost solely to himself at the Commanders head west to Arizona. Both Robinson and Ekeler rushed in a touchdown in the win, but Robinson had the commanding (no pun intended) lead with the workload thanks to a concussion that ended Ekeler’s night.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis