RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open at Memorial Park GC. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
What a Florida Swing! Over the last few weeks, we've seen the world's most dominant golfer destroy a couple of elite fields and a player that many would categorize as - to use the en vogue term - a "mule" find victory against a "lesser than" group of competitors.
While Peter Malnati's win at the Valspar Championship might not realistically carry as much weight as Scottie Scheffler's victories at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, "Peppy Peter" is nonetheless a PGA Tour champion, which is still an unbelievable accomplishment.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2024 Texas Children's Houston Open
Long the lead-in to the Masters, the Houston Open has bounced around on the schedule over the last few years and struggled to find a consistent title sponsor. Rechristened the Texas Children's Houston Open, the event has now transitioned back to a spring spot on the schedule.
As the PGA Tour exits the Florida Swing, eyes turn to Augusta National and the Masters. This event will serve as the final warm-up for some players who will likely be a factor in the year's first major.
Tony Finau is the defending Houston Open champion and he'll face a field that I'd consider an upgrade in comparison to the last few editions of this event. Most notably, World No. 1 and Texas resident Scottie Scheffler will be teeing it up this week. He'll be joined by Will Zalatoris, Wyndham Clark, Saheeth Theegala, and Jason Day.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Memorial Park GC
Par 70 - 7,435 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: John Bredemus (1936), Renovation: Tom Doak (2019)
Originally a nine-hole course that was converted into an 18-hole layout in 1936, Memorial Park underwent a massive Tom Doak-led renovation in 2019 (with input from player-consultant Brooks Koepka) that stretches the track to a modernized 7,435 yards. The course is open to the public and is built over 250 acres on a municipal park owned by the city of Houston.
This layout has proved to be a relatively decent challenge for PGA Tour pros since the event moved to Memorial Park with winning scores being rather moderate and falling between -10 to -16 under par. We've seen both iron play and putting be crucial keys to success on this layout with a large bucket of approach shots coming from 175+ yards.
Recent Houston Open Winners
- Tony Finau (-16)
- Jason Kokrak (-10)
- Carlos Ortiz (-13)
The Horse
Scottie Scheffler
I'm not sure how you could write any sort of PGA column and not include Scottie Scheffler at the moment. Scheffler has unquestionably been the best golfer on the planet this year and rolls into Houston fresh off back-to-back victories against elite fields at the API and PLAYERS.
He'll face no such depth this week and should theoretically steamroll this field on a course where he's gone T9-T2 over the last two years. It's no surprise that Scheffler's lack of success on the greens is the only thing that's held him back from victory at Memorial Park, as it's the only area where he's consistently lost strokes in this event. However, the talented Texan has found some success since making the switch to a TaylorMade Spyder putter earlier this month and has gained a combined 5.5 strokes putting across his last two outings.
I suppose there is some slight concern about a neck injury that gave him fits at TPC Sawgrass, though he's had a week off to rest and rehab the issue, and I highly doubt he'd be teeing it up in Houston if he didn't feel 100% healthy. As usual, his ability to win will likely be tied directly to his ability to make a reasonable amount of putts.
The Ponies
Jason Day
Remember when Jason Day had a Scheffler-like run? Those were the days. While the Aussie is several years removed from playing at the peak of his powers, his output over the last 18 months has been encouraging. Since slipping to 175th in the OWGR in the fall of 2022, Day has battled all the way back up to 21st in the world.
Day recorded top-10 finishes in three of his first five starts this year before treading water during the Florida Swing thanks to mediocre iron play. He'll have a chance to get back on track this week at a Memorial Park layout that seems to suit his eye. Day has a True Strokes Gained mark of +1.42 across his last 12 rounds in this event.
Aaron Rai
Though it may not normally be ideal to target a golfer fresh off a missed cut, we should probably give Aaron Rai some serious consideration in Houston despite his early exit from the Valspar. Rounds of 72-73 on a tough Copperhead layout are nothing to be too concerned about and there's good reason to believe the Englishman can rebound in a big way in this spot.
Rai has been terrific at Memorial Park in each of the last two years, amassing a 68.88 scoring average in the Houston Open - a mark that's second in this week's field among those with at least two starts in the event. Prior to last week's missed cut, the two-time winner on the DP World Tour was on a nice trajectory, logging top-25 finishes in both the Mexico and Puerto Rico Opens before notching a rock-solid T35 at THE PLAYERS. He's averaged gaining strokes T2G, OTT, and on APP over his last five tournaments while grading out ninth among this week's entrants in Overall Proximity (L24).
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Mackenzie Hughes
While Mackenzie Hughes is a frustratingly inconsistent golfer, last week's T3 at the Valspar is a nice reminder of the type of upside he possesses when everything is clicking. Following a strong fall that included a T7 at the World Wide Technology Championship and a solo second to Ludvig Aberg at the RSM Classic, Hughes has largely struggled to dial in his ball-striking in 2024.
However, the Canadian has now been even or above the field in SG: Approach in each of his last three starts, which has resulted in a noticeable spike in results, including last week's strong showing on a difficult Copperhead layout. Hughes will tote that trending form to a Memorial Park track that's been kind to him in the past. He's reeled off four consecutive made cuts in the Houston Open with a T16 in last year's edition.
Joel Dahmen
The popular fan favorite fought through his worst season in recent memory in 2023, as those of you who watched the recently released season of Full Swing on Netflix probably know. After a couple of promising outings in the fall, I'm happy to report that Dahmen appears to be coming out of the other side of his slump intact.
Dahmen recently told No Laying Up that he's felt like his game was really close over the past month, which prompted him to add the Puerto Rico Open to his schedule earlier this month. Following a ho-hum outing at the PR Open, he exploded for a T11 at THE PLAYERS with white-hot iron play at Sawgrass. While a T49 last week at Valspar doesn't seem like much, Dahmen's irons were again on fire, as he gained an eye-popping 8.2 strokes on Approach at Copperhead. He now heads to a Memorial Park course where he's scored a top-five and a top-10 over the last two years having gained a combined 13.4 strokes on Approach across his last two starts.
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