Eight Worst NFL Free Agency Moves - 2024 Offseason Analysis

Justin looks at the eight worst moves so far in 2024 NFL free agency. Which teams overpaid for free-agent players this offseason?

NFL free agency has arrived, with a lot of players already changing teams over the first week-plus of free agency action. The NFL's going to look different in 2024, especially in divisions like the NFC South, where the teams have been wheeling and dealing all offseason.

Some of those moves were really good, the kind of moves that can help a team contend for a Super Bowl, but not every signing was a great one. Some signings left us scratching our heads.

Let's take a look at eight NFL free-agent signings for 2024 that haven't really moved the needle.

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Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Three years, $37.75 million with $26 million guaranteed

This is all about the positional value. Saquon Barkley is still a good running back, but is he a $12.5 million per year running back? He averaged 68.7 rushing yards per game last season, which was a notable drop from 2022 and his 82.0 per game. He also posted a career low in receiving yards per game.

Barkley should be a productive player for the Eagles, but it's a lot of money for a guy with 1,201 carries and 288 receptions already in his career. How much tread is left on the tires for the former No. 2 overall pick?

Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans

Three years, $21 million with $10.5 million guaranteed

Derrick Henry left the Titans this offseason, clearing cap room just for the team to turn around and spend a chunk of it on another running back. Tony Pollard has three consecutive seasons of 1,000-plus scrimmage yards and is a versatile weapon who'll provide some good results for Tennessee, but he's also a luxury add for a team that went 6-11 last season.

Tyjae Spears had 838 scrimmage yards while playing behind Henry. It would have been a better allocation of funds to roll with Spears and a cheap veteran, especially when the team didn't necessarily need someone with Pollard's receiving chops. Why not try to grab Gus Edwards at half the price on a shorter deal?

Calvin Ridley - WR, Tennessee Titans

Four years, $92 million with $50 million guaranteed

Calvin Ridley is a good wide receiver, but the Titans had to overpay to bring him in as the new No. 1 option for second-year quarterback Will Levis. $50 million guaranteed for a guy entering his age-30 season could really come back to bite the Titans.

Sure, Ridley showed he's still a top NFL talent in 2023 when he had his second 1,000-yard season, which was especially impressive since he missed all of the 2022 season, but it's just really risky to spend this much on him.

Gabe Davis - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Three years, $39 million with $24 million guaranteed

With Calvin Ridley gone, Gabe Davis is set to take over his role with the Jaguars, which is...not good for the Jags. Say what you want about Ridley's new contract with the Titans being a bad deal, but from a purely impact-focused perspective, the drop-off from him to Davis is huge.

Gabe Davis has three games over the past two seasons with 90% snap share and one or zero catches, which is actually on the second-highest mark in the league -- Alec Pierce has *five* such games this season alone.

— Chris Towers is the Riley Greene Preservation Soc (@CTowersCBS) December 11, 2023

Davis was just so boom-or-bust in 2023. He had three games with 100-plus receiving yards, but he also had five games with zero receptions. I don't really know how to slice this to make it sound good for Jacksonville. The team needed someone who could be at least the 1B to Christian Kirk, and yet they signed a guy who had five games without a catch.

Darnell Mooney - WR, Atlanta Falcons

Three years, $39 million with $26 million guaranteed

If Darnell Mooney had signed this deal after 2021, it would have been a huge bargain, but then he posted two disappointing seasons in a row. In 2023, he had career lows in receptions (31) and receiving yards (414), something that you can partially blame on circumstances since he was the No. 2 receiver on a Bears team that didn't throw the ball a ton. Chicago had the sixth-fewest pass attempts in the NFL.

Darnell Mooney and Gabe Davis getting more money than Saquon Barkley is everything that's wrong with the world

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 12, 2024

Still, even then you'd think Mooney could have done better than 27.6 receiving yards per game last season. In Atlanta, he'll be expected to be the No. 2 receiver behind Drake London, though Rondale Moore in the slot should be the actual guy who ends up second in targets of the team's receivers.

Jonathan Greenard - DE, Minnesota Vikings

Four years, $76 million with $38 million guaranteed

I really like Jonathan Greenard, but this was a lot of money. Greenard broke out for the Texans last season, recording 12.5 sacks, 22 QB hits, and 52 tackles, all career highs. That's the problem, though -- $76 million with $38 million of that guaranteed is a lot for a guy with one season of elite production through four NFL seasons. He'll help shore up a big hole in this Vikings defense, but one has to wonder if Minnesota could have allocated its resources a little better.

Kevin Byard - S, Chicago Bears

Two years, $15 million with $7.4 million guaranteed

Kevin Byard used to be a really good NFL safety, but those days might be behind him. He'll be 31 years old at the start of the 2024 season and is coming off a season that saw him set a career low in passes defended. He still managed 122 tackles, the most of his career, but his pass coverage skills seem to have taken a drop.

There were plenty of good options at safety out there on the free-agent market, so the Bears signing Byard as quickly as they did felt like an odd move. He'd be a great depth piece, but the Bears need more at strong safety than a great depth piece.

Robert Hunt - OL, Carolina Panthers

Five years, $100 million with $63 million guaranteed

The Panthers went into this offseason with a major need to beef up the offensive line. So far, they've signed three offensive linemen, with Robert Hunt getting the most money of the three.

New Panthers guard Robert Hunt says "I think I play the game the right way. . . . I'd like to think I'm a dawg.''

— David Newton (@DNewtonespn) March 20, 2024

Hunt, who spent four seasons with the Dolphins, is a good guard, but this deal makes him the second-highest-paid guard in the NFL in terms of overall value of deal and third in annual value behind Landon Dickerson and Chris Lindstrom.

Looking at ESPN's data for offensive linemen, Hunt wasn't in the top 20 among interior offensive linemen in pass block win rate. It's just a huge contract for a guy who hasn't proven to be an elite player yet. There's still time for this to work out, but on paper, it doesn't look like a great deal.

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