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2024 NCAA Tournament bracket picks and team predictions for the Midwest Region. Read Mike's March Madness picks, sleepers, and busts including teams to target and avoid and how far each team can go.
The stage is set for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. We start with a play-in appetizer, followed by the greatest weekend in sports. 48 games in four days. A field whittled down to 16 teams from 64. There is nothing on earth like it, and we here at RotoBaller will be with you every step of the way.
Here we have a Midwest Region that is full of great potential matchups. This is a nasty bracket with at least four legitimate Final Four threats...assuming Kansas punting the Big 12 Tournament got them healthy again.
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your bracket, including other predictions for the South, Midwest, and West regions.
Midwest Region Favorites
(1) Purdue (29-4)
Nebraska and Northwestern beat Purdue because they got impossibly hot. Ohio State and Wisconsin did it by bullying Zach Edey. Big Ten officials let a lot go this season, but NCAA Tournament officials aren't so forgiving. That's how Purdue lost to the smallest team in the 2023 Tournament in Fairleigh Dickinson. Purdue hasn't adjusted well to that. Lance Jones gives Purdue their missing link this year. The Boilermakers were much better at perimeter defense and Jones is a big reason why.
(2) Tennessee (24-8)
Tennessee lost to two other number-one seeds and Kansas in their non-conference schedule and just couldn't handle Mississippi State in the conference. They beat Alabama twice and Kentucky in Rupp Arena before losing to them in the season finale in Knoxville. Zakai Zeigler is showing us all what we were missing last year and Dalton Knecht gives the Vols one of the most lethal scoring threats in the country.
(3) Creighton (23-9)
It is disappointing that Creighton can't play here because the CHI Health Center is Creighton's home arena. So they get shipped to Pittsburgh where Akron will have a ton of fans. The Jays beat a number-one team for the first time in school history this year. They could make history again with a Final Four run.
(4) Kansas (22-10)
This is not your normal Kansas team. They aren't deep, they don't have a prominent post presence, and they don't just score at will. The starting five is one of the best in the country. If the Jayhawks are finally healthy, this is an underseeded team.
Midwest Region Fatal Flaws
All teams have one or two things that could keep them from reaching their full potential. Here we will run the gamut of the main things that will hold teams in this region back.
Purdue: Every non-Purdue fan in the Big Ten complains about the officiating regarding Zach Edey.
According to Big 10 officials, there is no legal way to defend Zach Edey. Whistle every time he’s bumped.
This is why they lose in the tourney.
— Talkin’ Hawks (@TalkinHawks) March 16, 2024
He doesn't get the star treatment in the NCAA Tournament. That has resulted in early exits for Purdue despite having one of the more dominant players in the country.
Foul on Tyler Wahl for not just getting out of Zach Edey’s way pic.twitter.com/b7290FeuRH
— Bad Sports Refs (@BadSportsRefs) March 16, 2024
Tennessee: Despite the presence of Jonas Aidoo, physical teams can beat the Vols. That's why South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State gave this team issues.
Creighton: For as guard-centric as the Jays are, they don't force turnovers. They are 360 out of 362 teams with just four steals per game.
Kansas: The bench is terrible. Kansas only averages 11.88 bench points per game. They don't have guys on the bench that can come in and score if the starters go cold. That's very unusual for a Kansas team and explains their lack of success down the stretch.
Gonzaga: Their bench is almost as bad as Kansas. Gonzaga is great as far as the first six go, but they struggle to find production beyond that.
South Carolina: Poor shooting. The Gamecocks are in the mid-200s in points and shooting percentage and are even worse at the foul line.
Texas: Rebounding. They are good on the offensive glass but are just 214th overall and 237th in defensive boards.
Utah State: Three-point shooting. The Aggies only shoot 33.1% from downtown, bad enough for 236th in the country.
Midwest Region Ceilings
We know the floor of every team, right? They can all lose in the first round. Top overall seed Virginia lost on the first day of the tournament in 2017. In this section, we'll explore the realistic ceiling of every team in the bracket.
Purdue: If they get Edey-friendly officials, Purdue could make a run to Phoenix. If not, They're losing in Indianapolis. There must be something to this if literally every fan base complains about it. I watched many more games this year than usual, and while most players get star treatment at home, it doesn't follow them. Edey got it in a lot of areas, and the reason is that no one knows how to officiate a guy like him. There aren't many of his types around.
Tennessee: A very physical Texas or Virginia team could meet the Vols in the second round. If they get past that, it's likely Creighton or Oregon. This is a terrible draw for Tennessee. Their ceiling might be the beginning of the second weekend.
Creighton: Creighton does a lot of things well and Ryan Kalkbrenner is a load, but teams that are physical with them on the perimeter are dangerous for Creighton. South Carolina is an absolute nightmare if they get past Oregon. If not, Dana Altman faces his former team in Pittsburgh. If that happens, Creighton could go a long way. This team has Final Four potential if they don't lose to the Gamecocks.
Kansas: A healthy Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson might be enough for Kansas to get to the Final Four out of this region. The Jayhawks beat Tennessee and Connecticut out of conference and took down Houston (convincingly) in Lawrence.
Gonzaga: The Bulldogs have been a different team since January. They are one of the best shooting teams in the country. Their kryptonite is teams that can get them out of their comfort zone. That's why St. Mary's beat them twice. The Bulldogs got a rough draw. A healthy Kansas could do that. A sharp-shooting McNeese team might be able to. This gets significantly easier if Gonzaga survives the first weekend. A Final Four berth is possible.
South Carolina: If they can ugly up the game, they have two winnable games in Pittsburgh. They split against Tennessee this year, but it does show that the Gamecocks can get to the Final Four by playing ugly. It worked for a team or two last year.
Texas: Max Abmas is a tournament warrior. That's why the Longhorns brought him in from Oral Roberts. He has been frighteningly average for much of the season, but if he gets hot, Texas could make it to the regional final.
Utah State: The Aggies will go as far as Great Osobor can take them. Their worst loss of the season was to Bradley, who is a two-seed in the NIT. This is a good draw for Utah State. This team is capable of beating Purdue. If Kansas isn't in top shape, this team could even make it to the regional final.
TCU: The Toadies lost five of their last eight. If they get past Utah State, I'm not sure they're equipped to take down Purdue.
Virginia/Colorado State: Virginia is the least-deserving tournament team in a decade.
This the one. We missing out on this to watch Virginia play basketball. I’d rather hear nails on a chalkboard for two hours than to watch that mess.
— Coach L (@SharpShooter812) March 18, 2024
Colorado State is a tough and physical team. They beat Creighton in Kansas City earlier this year. The Rams are capable of making it out of the first weekend.
Oregon: N'Faly Dante is on cruise control and the Ducks win the last Pac-12 Tournament title. What's the encore? This team is better than we think and is capable of beating a plodding South Carolina team. They aren't built to beat Creighton though.
McNeese: The Cowboys lead the free world in point differential this year. That highlights how much better they are than everyone else in the Southland. Shahada Wells is going to be a problem. McNeese is an excellent three-point shooting team, so they can hang with Gonzaga. Beating them is not out of the question. If Purdue gets ousted early, a regional final is possible.
Samford: This is a terrible matchup for Kansas. Samford is fifth in the country with 86 points per game and is seventh in the country at 39.3% from three-point range. Taking on a hobbled team with a bad bench is a dream matchup for the Bulldogs. They have a puncher's chance at the Sweet Sixteen and maybe the regional final if Purdue loses.
Akron: Is Enrique Freeman enough to take out Creighton? I doubt it, but his presence on the inside could put a scare into the Jays.
Saint Peter's: I would have loved to see Saint Peter's wind up in Kentucky's bracket, but it likely wouldn't matter. The Peacocks struggle to score. Tennessee will bury them.
Montana State/Grambling: Grambling gets their first-ever tournament bid and the Bobcats make it back despite losing Great Osobor and Darius Brown II to Utah State (and their coach). RaeQuan Battle ended up at West Virginia. This is not the same Montana State team, but they are good enough to give Purdue a fight.
Most Intriguing First-Round Matchup
(4) Kansas vs. (13) Samford
There are a few good matchups in the first round in this region, but this is the most intriguing. Kansas has struggled lately and the Bulldogs have everything you want in a team primed to pull an upset. They are exceptional shooters from just about anywhere and love to pace the game up. Add in the struggles of Kansas away from the Phog this year, and you might have the recipe for an upset.
Bust of the Midwest Region
Purdue for every reason I have highlighted above. Aside from that, their second-round matchup is really tough.
Dark Horse Play
There might be more than one. I'm a sucker for Utah State. Texas feels underseeded. Gonzaga lost to Purdue earlier this year. I might have to go with Creighton. If chalk holds, the Blue Jays are equipped to take out both Tennessee and Purdue.
West Regional Picks
First round: Purdue, Utah State, Gonzaga, Samford, Oregon, Creighton, Texas, Tennessee
Second round: Utah State, Gonzaga, Creighton, Tennessee
Regional semifinal: Gonzaga, Creighton
Regional champion: For all of the flaws that Creighton has, I feel like Creighton is best equipped to get out of this region. I feel total chaos is going to happen here, and I'll love every second of it!
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