PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for the Genesis Invitational (Round 1)

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the Genesis Invitational (Round 1). The 2024 PGA Tour season is back in full swing, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at Riviera Country Club for the 2024 Genesis Invitational! This Golden Age masterpiece is often regarded as the seminal work of one of golf's most revered architects, and since 1973, the best players in the world have made Riviera the site of one of the PGA Tour's premier events. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, February 15.

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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks

Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.

Brian Harman LESS than 11.5 Greens In Regulation

As I mentioned in my "Scouting the Routing article" (available every Monday right here on RotoBaller), Riviera concedes one of the lowest fairway percentages (51.5%), and green in regulation rates (55.6%), on the entire PGA Tour. Unlike Pebble Beach or Torrey Pines, which each utilize a lack of surface area to increase miss percentages, Riviera tests these players with a collection of tight angles, severe canting, and firm turf conditions.

The uncertainty caused by these variables will be a nightmare to anyone not coming in with stellar ball-striking form, and of the players currently listed on PrizePicks' prop board, Brian Harman profiles as the clearest fade candidate in this market.

The 2023 Open Champion has found it difficult to replicate the stellar run of play he displayed last summer which ultimately culminated in the biggest triumph of his career, but it's been some time since we've seen Harman struggle in the way he did on approach last week in Scottsdale. The UGA-alum lost a whopping 6.2 strokes to the field on approach over his four rounds at WM, and hit just 59.7% of his greens around a venue that has historically been much less daunting of a tee-to-green test than Riviera.

Furthermore, in nine career starts around Riviera, Harman has lost strokes on Approach on every one of those occasions and ranks dead last in this field in GIR %. The emphasis Riviera places on mid/long iron approaches from over 150 yards profiles very similarly to the test he faced last week in the desert. With no finishes better than 43rd here since 2015, I can't imagine this is a particularly comfortable venue for a potential bounce back.

Adam Scott MORE than 11.5 Greens In Regulation

The bear case I just presented against Harman makes it even more confusing as to why Adam Scott is posted right alongside him in the Green In Regulation market. In direct contrast to Brian, Adam has one of the more stellar ball-striking resumes you'll ever find around Riviera: gaining strokes on approach in eight of his last ten starts here, and beating the field average in GIR rate on nine of those ten occasions.

Scott also comes into this week on a stretch of stellar tee-to-green play: gaining strokes on approach in each of his last six worldwide starts, and hitting over 80% of his greens in regulation last week in Scottsdale. If there were ever a patient zero for the haves versus the have-nots in terms of suitability around this Golden Age layout, Harman and Scott would be two of the more extreme cases you could ever find over the last 10+ years.

I'm more than happy to play both sides of the same prop, regardless of Riviera's historic difficulty. With the way he's currently playing and his documented success around Pacific Palisades, Adam Scott is as safe of a proposition as you're going to get at this week's Genesis Invitational.

Other Recommendations

• Rory McIlroy LESS than 68.5 Strokes
• Sungjae Im LESS than 4.0 Birdies or Better
• Jason Day LESS than 11.5 Greens in Regulation

Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play

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