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Who's going to win the Super Bowl? Joe Nicely's Super Bowl predictions, breaking down his top-five dark horse Super Bowl contenders for the 2024 NFL postseason.
With the final regular season game of the 2023 NFL season now in the books, the playoff picture is clear. However, anything can happen in the NFL postseason, as magical Super Bowl runs are very possible in the modern game.
While we are all aware of the list of current Super Bowl favorites that includes teams that both pass the eye test and have terrific records like the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, it’s fun to wonder who are the teams that are a bit out of the picture at the moment but could potentially make a deep run over the next few weeks.
We’ll rank those potential spoilers here, as we dive into the top-five dark horse Super Bowl contenders!
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#1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Current Odds to Win Super Bowl: +1000
I know, I know... it's crazy to call the defending Super Bowl champions "dark horses". However, the Chiefs currently have just the fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+1000), according to most sportsbooks.
It's certainly not been a typical year for Andy Reid and company, as Patrick Mahomes has looked human and Travis Kelce has looked, well, old. Mahomes' passing yards, TDs, and yards per attempt totals are all at their lowest since his injury-shortened 2019 campaign, while his 14 interceptions represent the most he's ever thrown in his career. As for Kelce, he might well be winning at life, but his production on the field has noticeably dipped in 2023, as he failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015.
Postseason starts at our place. Time to get LOUD, Chiefs Kingdom! pic.twitter.com/qrqNCReEri
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 10, 2024
Though the Chiefs haven't looked as explosive offensively, they head into the NFL playoffs with a weapon they haven't always had...a great defense. Kansas City allowed the second-fewest yards per game in the NFL during the regular season while holding opponents to just 17.3 points per game, which was the second-best mark in the league in 2023.
With a defense that can keep them in games, and the dynamic duo of Mahomes and Kelce still capable of finding a rhythm in Andy Reid's offensive scheme, it would be a mistake to write off the defending champs.
#2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Current Odds to Win Super Bowl: +1800
The team the Chiefs narrowly defeated in last year's Super Bowl, the Philadelphia Eagles, enter this year's NFL playoffs with plenty of their own problems.
After sprinting out of the gates with a dominant 10-1 start this season, there appeared to be little doubt that Philly was on track to return to the Super Bowl in 2023. However, the Eagles have proceeded to implode down the stretch and finished out the regular season by losing five of their last six games.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 0-0
— ʟᴇᴇᴍ 🦇 (@RunHurts) January 8, 2024
It's tough to make an impassioned argument for a team that looked so horrible over the last two months of the season, but let's keep in mind this is an Eagles squad that's defeated the Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills this season.
The offense, though dormant recently, still has explosive pieces all over the field in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and D'Andre Swift. Not to mention the dual-threat prowess of Jalen Hurts, a player who led Philadelphia to the cusp of a Super Bowl title in 2022 and looked like the best quarterback in the league over the first half of 2023 behind an offensive line that remains one of the best units in the NFL.
The Eagles will undoubtedly need to fix their pronounced defensive issues ahead of their Wild Card matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs, but Philadelphia isn't too far removed from playing at an elite level.
#3. Detroit Lions (12-5)
Current Odds to Win Super Bowl: +2200
Can we consider a 12-5 squad a "dark horse"? Well... I think that's fair when we take into consideration that the Detroit Lions have not only never won a Super Bowl, they've never even made it to a Super Bowl. That's right, never. As in hasn't ever happened.
This long-suffering Detroit franchise hasn't even won a playoff game since 1991 and owns the NFL's longest active streak without a playoff victory. Dan Campbell and his kneecap-biting squad of lovable losers will look to put an end to that streak this weekend when they host -- that's right, host a playoff game for the first time in 30 years -- the Los Angeles Rams at Ford Field. It's an advantage, as the Lions went 6-2 on their home turf this season.
"Just stay true" pic.twitter.com/UYjClxPJIT
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) January 10, 2024
Campbell has spent his entire tenure with Detroit trying to change the culture and instill grit into this organization's DNA. After a promising 2022 campaign, it's fully taking hold this year. The Lions boast a high-octane offense that finished fifth in the NFL at 27.1 points per game, while their defense has certainly had lapses, but was one of the league's best run-stopping units on the year.
If the Lions take care of business against the Rams in the Wild Card round, their next challenge would either be a rematch with a Dallas Cowboys team they almost (some say did) beat recently or they would host another home game against either the Bucs or Eagles. Neither scenario feels too daunting for this up-and-coming squad.
#4. Cleveland Browns (11-6)
Current Odds to Win Super Bowl: +3300
Can we please just get a Browns vs. Lions matchup in the Super Bowl? Imagine how glorious it would be to guarantee an end to the seemingly never-ending torture for at least one of these long-suffering fan bases.
The Browns have overcome one obstacle after another in 2023 and have helped their fans to feel something they haven't felt in quite some time...joy. Despite season-ending injuries to star running back Nick Chubb, starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, seemingly their entire offensive line, and even their kicker, Cleveland continued to fight this year and finished the regular season with a rock-solid 11-6 record.
The '24 Cleveland #Browns are an inspiration. The walking embodiment of the phrase "I didnt hear no bell!". Theyve dealt with so many body blows, its hard to remember 'em all. Through everything, they just keep swinging.
Your official '23-'24 #DawgPound Playoff Hype 📽️ is here: pic.twitter.com/JgQY9I8EQ9
— CLEology (@_CLEology) January 9, 2024
While the list of players that have stepped up for the Browns is a long one, none is more prominent than veteran QB Joe Flacco, a former Super Bowl winner with the rival Baltimore Ravens. Thanks to Flacco's emergence down the stretch, along with superstar performances from Amari Cooper and a Cleveland defensive unit that held opponents to a league-low 270.2 yards per game in 2023, the Browns head into a Wild Card matchup against the Houston Texans feeling optimistic about their chances to advance in the NFL postseason.
#5. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Current Odds to Win Super Bowl: +5000
Although the Rams enter Wild Card Weekend as just the sixth seed in the NFC and with long Super Bowls of 50-1, Sean McVay's squad might hold the title of "Team That Nobody Really Wants To Play" in this year's NFL playoffs.
L.A. has experience and talent on both sides of the ball in stalwarts Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald. Following an abysmal 2022 campaign, Stafford has stayed relatively healthy this year, throwing for nearly 4,000 yards along with 24 TDs.
Matthew Stafford will play a playoff game in Detroit. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/CFvlAxkpJv
— theScore (@theScore) January 8, 2024
He's been aided by a supporting cast that continued to grow and impress as the season unfolded, including dynamic second-year running back Kyren Williams and record-breaking rookie wideout Puka Nacua. Stafford also rediscovered a nice connection with Cooper Kupp down the stretch, as the Rams averaged an eye-opening 29.9 points per game over their last seven outings of the regular season.
A defensive unit that features few names you know outside of Donald has been middling, but good enough to keep them in ballgames, although the Rams will need to shore up a special teams unit that ranked last in the NFL this season if they are to make a postseason run.
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