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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 19, 2023.
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Before starting today’s article, Sean posted in our Discord that this was a juicy slate and he wasn’t wrong. There are so many reasonably priced teams in great spots tonight, and that makes for a fun slate. Sure, you may have to worry about pricing a little bit if you want to stack Edmonton or Colorado, but outside of that, you can easily use just about any other line you want and not have to punt your entire second line. On top of that, some goalies are mispriced considering the volume they will face, so we can attack that volume without having to spend $8,500 on a net-minder. All of this adds up to a slate that is a blast to dissect and create lineups.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; including five tournaments priced for $20 or less with a $1,000 or more top prize, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $5 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 142-person GPP with $1,000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Buffalo Sabres (BUF1 - Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Zach Benson, Rasmus Dahlin)
Spencer Martin, the starting goalie for the Columbus Blue Jackets, is not good at his job. He has allowed three or more goals in five of his last six starts, with a goals-against average of 4.16. He has one of the lowest save percentages in the league, and the Blue Jackets allow the third-most shots on goal per game of any team on the slate. The Columbus defense has allowed 3.43 even-strength goals per 60 minutes on the road over their last 10 games, and even with positive regression, they should have allowed a slate-high 2.97 goals per 60 minutes. There haven’t been many positives for the Blue Jackets' road defense this year, and that’s why we are running to stack against them. If there is a team that can help a line get right, it’s the current iteration of the Blue Jackets.
Buffalo hasn’t been playing to their potential at home yet this year, scoring only 2.29 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 games, but they’ve been a little unlucky as the data suggests they should have scored 2.75 goals per 60 minutes. The Sabres’ struggles can be tied to their relative lack of health, as their top line of Tuch, Skinner, and Thompson have played very few games together so far. The line is still missing Skinner, but Zach Benson is performing admirably in his absence. Over his last three games, Benson has two goals, one assist, 10 shots on goal, and five blocked shots. He scored 12.9 or more DraftKings points in each of those games.
Los Angeles Kings (LAK2 - Kevin Fiala, Trevor Moore, Phillip Danault)
Advanced data is starting to paint a less miserable picture for the San Jose Sharks, but it’s still far from a painting of a good defensive team. While the Sharks are no longer allowing three and a half goals per game, they are giving up 2.90 even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home over their last 10 games, and the advanced data shows that their performance is an accurate depiction of how they’ve been playing. The Achilles heel for San Jose is the number of high-danger chances they allow per game; 13.75 over their last 10 home games. That’s just not going to cut it against the better offenses in the NHL.
The Los Angeles Kings are one of those better offenses. The team is scoring a healthy 2.5 even-strength goals per 60 minutes on the road, although advanced data says that they should be closer to three goals. That’s one of the higher numbers on the slate and makes the Kings one of the top teams on the slate. Opposing teams’ second lines are thriving against the Sharks, and it just so happens that Danault, Fiala, and Moore dominate on the road. The trio scores 10 more DraftKings points per game on the road this year, combining for 18 goals and 27 assists in 14 games. If you’re in a state where you can same-game parlay individual player points (OVER 0.5), doing so for each member of this line makes a lot of sense.
Tampa Bay Lightning (TB1 - Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel)
We will finish our top stacks tonight by once again attacking one of the worst defenses on the slate. The St. Louis Blues have been atrocious on the road over the last 10 games. They have allowed 3.36 even-strength goals per 60 minutes; one of only two teams on the slate to allow that many goals. The advanced data suggests some positive regression, but even with that, they’d be allowing just shy of three goals.
Tampa Bay is not a team that you want to face when you are struggling defensively. They have one of the most potent top lines in the NHL, headed up by one of the most lethal players in the league in Nikita Kucherov. He’s averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game on the season in his last 10 games and on the road.
He has scored 17 or more DraftKings points in seven of his last nine games. There is no situation where you can point to Kucherov as a bad play. Point and Hagel have struggled a bit lately, combining for only three goals and seven assists over their last 10 games. Half of those games were on the road though, and the Lightning are a better team at home. I’m not worried about the slump as this is the kind of matchup that breaks slumps. Add in Victor Hedman for power play correlation and to make your four-man stack that much more unique.
Others in consideration: TOR2, TOR1, EDM1, COL1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Arizona Coyotes (ARI2 - Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse, Nick Bjugstad)
Matias Maccelli has scored double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six games, yet DraftKings still has him priced at just $3,900. He leads a Coyotes second line that is in a great spot tonight against the Ottawa Senators and their goalie, Joonas Korpisalo.
He’s been awful recently, allowing four or more goals in six of his last seven starts. The defensive pairing to target is Erik Brannstrom/Travis Hamonic and that duo should spend the majority of their time on the ice facing off against the second line for the Coyotes. It’s a very inexpensive line that doesn’t need to do much to hit value, and they pair excellently with some of the more pricey teams that we are going to want to load up on tonight.
Others in consideration: CBJ2, BUF4, TB3
Top Goalies to Target
Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders)
A goalie who faces the Edmonton Oilers is not often recommended, but Ilya Sorokin has been producing like an elite fantasy goaltender for a long while and is well worth his $7,400 price tag. The main way a goalie scores fantasy points is through his saves, and nobody is saving more shots than Sorokin. He’s had 30 or more saves in 15 of his last 17 starts, including seven games where he got the DraftKings save bonus for 35 or more saves (and he missed that bonus by one save three other times).
That’s the kind of volume that allows a goalie to produce big scores despite allowing multiple goals. Sorokin has scored 18 or more fantasy points five times this year when he’s allowed three or more goals. That kind of leeway comes in handy against a team like the Oilers.
Edmonton may put three in the back of the net, but between their 34.4 shots on goal per game and the Islanders’ 35.7 shots on goal allowed per game, they can do just that and still allow room for a strong return on investment for Sorokin’s price tag. He’s viable in both cash and GPP lineups.
Others in consideration (GPP): Thatcher Demko, Linus Ullmark, Carter Hart, Andrei Vasilevskiy
Others in consideration (Cash): Connor Ingram, Cam Talbot, Logan Thompson
