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Juan Soto was traded to the New York Yankees. Does the lefty stand to benefit from the short porch in right and where will he bat in the lineup? Read the 2024 predictions for Juan Soto here.
Last season, the Yankees struggled to get on base (.304 OBP, 27th out of 30) and score runs (4.15 runs/game, 25th out of 30), but with some new additions and healthy veterans, the Yankees already look like a much better offensive team than the 2023 iteration.
A look at a potential 2024 Yankees lineup featuring Juan Soto 🔥👀 pic.twitter.com/3LZ3qAiQfV
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) December 7, 2023
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Juan Soto's elite toolset will have an immediate positive impact on the overall offense, but will it be a boon for his stats? Let's take a look below.
Also, if you're looking for full details of the Soto trade, check out this article that describes the players involved.
Juan Soto's Fantasy Baseball Outlook for 2024
Watching game after game last season for the Padres, there was continuous analysis as to why the Padres weren't winning as much as expected with a lineup that included Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and of course, Juan Soto. The analysis always seemed to include how Soto was taking too many pitches, walking too much, and how someone with his kind of bat should be smacking homers and driving in runs to help his team win instead of trying to draw a walk.
Once the season was over, however, it was clear that Soto had done his part, and perhaps it was another piece(s) that didn't do theirs. In the end, Soto tallied 35 HR (career high) and 109 RBI (one away from career high), to go along with his 132 BB and 97 R. It was the third season in a row Soto topped 130 walks, and his career OBP now stands at .421 after six seasons. If his career ended today, per BaseballReference.com, here is the company he'd keep with that type of ability to get on base:
To say those are some esteemed names to be associated with would be an understatement. So what does this say for his outlook for 2024? It's hard to imagine he can improve much in the OBP department and he probably doesn't get many more RBI than the 109 he collected last year, but hitting in front of the single-season home run record holder could boost the run totals by a good bit.
Juan Soto has 6 seasons of a .400+ OBP.
That's tied for the most .400-OBP seasons before turning 26 years old in MLB history.
He still has his age-25 season to play. pic.twitter.com/TTh82Y2O5U
— Extra StatMuse (@extrastatmuse) December 6, 2023
Right now he's projected to hit second in the lineup, but if the Yankees were to take a page out of the Braves' book from a few years ago when they put Ronald Acuna Jr. atop the lineup and Freddie Freeman right behind him, they could drop Soto into the leadoff spot and put Judge number two, then sit back and watch the run production climb. The Dodgers now do this with Mookie Betts hitting leadoff and Freeman second (Acuna still leads off too, with either Ozzie Albies or Matt Olson second).
No need for your leadoff hitter to be a speedster either, or have a respectable batting average for that matter. Just look at the Phillies' Kyle Schwarber who hit .197 last season with ZERO stolen bases, mostly as the leadoff hitter, but hit 47 HR and drew 126 walks.
Below is Soto's final 2023 line along with his projections for 2024. There's a projected bump in HR, presumably because of the short HR distance in right field, but for his career, Soto pulls just 32.9% of balls in play, while the major league average is 37.0%. Note that, because of the dimensions in Yankee Stadium, had all of Soto's 2023 HR balls been hit there, he would have ended with fewer than 35 HR (or nearly the same amount, accounting for some 2023 outs to RF becoming HR).
Perhaps the "short porch" in right field coaxes him into pulling the ball more, but if that doesn't happen, then his projected HR totals are probably a tad too high. And if the Yanks bat him leadoff, then the projected run totals are probably a tad too low. Otherwise, the projections appear to be pretty spot on.
If you think last season or his near-MVP season in 2021 was his ceiling though, you must remember that, after everything discussed here, Juan Soto is just 25 years old! Josh Jung had an All-Star campaign in 2023 and, if not for missing extended time due to a broken thumb, Jung could have made a stronger case for AL Rookie of the Year. Juan Soto is eight months younger than Josh Jung and going into his seventh season.
Juan Soto has been elite from a young age and is only now entering his prime baseball years. In my opinion, the sky's the limit.
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